Campaign Diaries

Obama unveiled a new strategy today, one that his campaign had generally not pursued until this past week. But a new campaign narrative is solidifying around McCain, and that has given Democrats an opening. To their usual portrayal of McCain as “more of the same,” they are now adding a twist: the charge that McCain has transformed himself from a maverick into a typical, cynical political in order to gain power.

John Kerry used this line of attack in his speech at the Democratic convention, ridiculing the internal debate between “Senator McCain and candidate McCain.” But most other convention speakers stayed away from the charge that McCain reshaped himself for the sake of his ambition. And for good reason: the strategy comes with obvious risks, as it requires telling voters that McCain used to be a maverick and speaking well of his past positioning.

But the events of the past week have given Obama an opening. The media is generally very timid in pointing out that claims are false and tends to give a campaign the benefit of the doubt. But as articles from the mainstream press have used increasingly tough words to characterize McCain’s attacks, it became evident that something had changed. Perhaps it was the GOP’s plain refusal to edit itself after its claim had been thoroughly debunked (Sarah Palin repeated that she had been opposed to the bridge to nowhere in events this week-end), or perhaps the sex-ed for kindergartners charge crossed the line, but the end result is that the press have exhibited a willingness to point out holes in McCain’s claims to an extent that has rarely been seen in recent years.

In other words, a narrative is being developed as we speak, one that is being amplified by late night comics, cartoonists and columnists across the country: Just as Gore was stiff in 2000 and Kerry was a flip-flopper in 2004, McCain risks being defined as a truth-twister.

The McCain campaign did not expect the rough treatment it got on The View last week, where the co-hosts were tougher on the Arizona Senator than most journalists have been. And this video of a Fox News anchor repeatedly calling out a McCain spokesperson for lying about Obama’s policy on taxes is truly a sight to behold. If even Fox News has picked up on this new narrative of a truth-stretching GOP, what will local evening news be reporting in the weeks ahead? And if the press now believes that the McCain campaign is not being truthful, it will double-check a lot of the Republican’s claims and be tougher on the GOP’s attacks.

The Obama campaign is now looking to capitalize on the press’s willingness to call out McCain by making the Republicans’ dirty tactics into a campaign issue. The campaign’s latest ad hits McCain for his “deception,” quoting a variety of press outlets (and mostly op-ed writers) that characterize McCain’s tactics as “vile” and “sleazy:”

Campaigns that complain about tone rarely win. Voters complain about negative ads but they end up relying on them. Just yesterday (before Obama’s ad came out), Jonathan Martin linked to an ad aired by Dukakis in 1988 that blamed Bush I for taking the campaign down the gutter. Ultimately process does not weigh that heavily on voters’ minds, which is why Obama has never been worried that his decision to opt out of public financing will come to hurt him.

But Democrats are hoping that 2008 will be different, and it might very well be. As I already said, a narrative is developing around McCain, and an attack is most effective when it relies on pre-existing conceptions about someone. The noise around McCain’s tactics will amplify Obama’s attacks and make it tougher for the Republican to go after Obama in the weeks ahead.

Second, truthfulness and straight-talk have been at the center of McCain’s appeal, more profoundly so than for most politicians. McCain’s maverick reputation, his willingness to take on George W. Bush in 2000 and in the years ahead is what made him an appealing politician in the eyes of independent voters, and a lot of those warm feelings have transferred over to this election. McCain is leading among independent voters because he successfully made the election about character.

That McCain has this reputation also speaks to the limitations of Obama’s “more of the same” strategy. Voters might dislike Bush and they might fear that McCain will prolong his policies, but they still have the image of McCain as the anti-Bush Republican; that is, after all, how McCain almost became the GOP’s presidential nominee eight years ago. Can Obama get voters to blame McCain for Bush without at least acknowledging that many independent have a fond image of McCain the straight-talker?

These questions have been in the air for many weeks now, as some analysts had been urging Obama to take on Kerry’s attacks and go after McCain’s ambition, point out that the Arizona Senator made up with the very groups he so dramatically denounced eight years ago - the GOP establishment, the Religious Right. But only a few days ago ago did the Obama campaign embrace that argument, saying that McCain “would rather lose his integrity than lose an election.”

Now, Joe Biden has been charged with echoing that line of attack in a new and much tougher stump speech he unveiled this morning in Michigan:

Whatever happened to the guy who once denounced tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans in a time of war as “immoral”? Whatever happened to the guy who wanted to do something about climate change?

Not anymore. Senator McCain says he’d vote against a bill he helped to write. When someone running for election changes his views to satisfy the base of the party, that’s not change, that’s just more of the same Washington game…

When Senator McCain was subjected to unconscionable, scurrilous attacks in his 2000 campaign, I called him on the phone to ask what I could do. And now, some of the very same people and the tactics he once deplored, his campaign now employs.

The same campaign that once called for a town hall a week is now launching a low blow a day.

Just as Kerry’s convention speech, Biden’s stump speech could also remind some voters of reasons for which they liked McCain. How big of a risk is this? And will the new campaign narrative that is solidifying around McCain undermine his character appeal?