Campaign Diaries

Quinnipiac released its wave of surveys from the “Big Three” and finds contrasting dynamics: Obama gains in Ohio, McCain gains in Florida and Pennsylvania. That puts Obama ahead in two out of three - a scenario that would require McCain to win Michigan to survive. These polls were taken Friday through Tuesday, so they carry the immediate aftermath of the convention bounce.

However, some of the internals are consistent across the surveys. Obama, who was once plagued by dismal support among Democrats, now stands above 80% in party loyalty in all three states. But that has been undercut by McCain’s gains among independents. In all three states, McCain now leads among independents; that represents a significant boost in PA and OH, and while there is no movement in Florida he already had an advantage in that group to start with.

• Obama leads 48% to 45% in Pennsylvania (polling history). He led by 7% in late August (and 12% in late June). Independents shift 11% towards McCain, who also improves his share of GOP voters, but Obama gets a solid 82% among Democrats. He improves his share of Clinton supporters and Catholics. Obama is being destroyed in Southwest Pennsylvania.

• Obama leads 49% to 44% in Ohio (polling history). He led by 1% in late August. The key factor here is the support among Democrats: Three weeks ago, McCain’s party loyalty was 16% better than Obama’s. Now, Obama gets 87% among Democrats, and that is better than McCain. That allows him to take a lead outside of the MoE, even though Independents shift 8% towards McCain. Obama is being destroyed in Southeastern Ohio.

• McCain leads 50% to 43% in Florida (polling history). He led by 4% in late August. This is the only one of the three surveys that doesn’t show much movement among independents, but he was already leading to start with. Obama is losing ground among Clinton supporters (McCain now gets 24%) and among women (he trails for the first time). Obama does get a relatively solid 83% among Democrats.

Who would have thought that the Keystone State (in which Obama has led by 12%, 7% and 7% in the last three Quinnipiac surveys) would now be the only one within the margin of error? This confirms a number of other polls from Pennsylvania we have seen over the past few days, as Obama’s lead has slipped to 3% in Rasmussen and 2% in Strategic Vision. Before discussing whether Florida is replacing the new Ohio (which this poll argues against), we should discuss whether Pennsylvania is replacing Michigan as the most vulnerable Kerry state.

In a sense, Obama has to feel better if it comes down to Pennsylvania, since this is one of the state in which Democrats have posted the most massive registration gains over the past two years. But it is certainly not reassuring for Obama to have a state he thought was leaning his way inch back towards the toss-up category. This is one state in which we will want to look at polls taken in a few days, to see whether Obama can recreate some space if McCain’s gains among independents fade.

This movement among independent has been key to McCain’s post-convention bounce, and many national polls have reported the same trend - none more dramatically than Gallup. In fact, it looks in these polls that McCain’s gains come mostly from undecided independents making up their mind. This is not surprising given how much effort McCain did to distance himself from Bush, but it is still worrisome for Obama, particularly since partisan ID seems to be balancing itself. It will be crucial to monitor the candidates’ support among independents in the coming weeks to see whether McCain’s bounce fades.

The most worrisome sign for Democrats is that the GOP’s independent bounce could erase their advantage in congressional races. In this morning’s delivery of down-the-ballot results, Reichert increases his lead in WA-08 entirely thanks to independents:

• In NJ-07, an internal poll for Linda Stender finds her leading Leonard Lance 36% to 33%, with 9% going to Michael Hsing, a Republican councilman who is running as an independent.

• In WA-08, a SUSA poll finds Rep. Dave Reichert expanding his lead against Darcy Burner. He is up 54% to 44%. This is entirely due to Reichert gaining among independents, an echo of the presidential race.

• In the Kentucky Senate race, an internal poll for Mitch McConnell finds him leading Bruce Lunsford 52% to 35%.

In NJ-07, Democrats were probably hoping Stender would be looking stronger at this point, but this is nonetheless better news for her than a Lance internal poll released in mid-July that had him up 7%. This is an expensive district to advertise in, so Stender’s warchest combined with the DCCC’s financial advantage will come in handy.