The two week stretch of fast-paced game-changing events is finally over, and we now have to wait to see the state of the race as of the end of the veepstakes/convention cycle. Will there be much difference from where the race was as of August 22nd? Will Obama’s gain among Clinton supporters and McCain’s among evangelicals cancel out? Did undecided voters, independents move at all? Did Palin’s pick open the door for McCain among women?
In the wake up yesterday’s CBS poll showing McCain gaining 8% in three days, today’s trackings show an uptick for McCain (see below), but we will of course have to wait a few more days to see the convention’s full impact and look at the internals of major national polls to see (1) whether McCain improved his image and (2) whether Obama’s improvements from last week survived the RNC convention. Also, pollsters will now go back in the field to bring us more state-level presidential and Senate surveys. We have not been getting a lot of those lately.
Let’s look at the day’s presidential numbers:
- The two tracking polls are starting to detect signs of a McCain bounce. In Rasmussen, Obama’s 5% lead shrank to 2%, 48% to 46%. In Gallup, Obama’s lead also shrinks by 3%, and he is now up 48% to 44%. A third of this tracking was conducted after the Palin speech, none was conducted after McCain’s. (You can also check this interesting attempt at guessing the individual night numbers.)
- And we now have a third tracking poll! Diego-Hotline just released its first wave, taken over the same period and finding Obama leading 46% to 40%. (The previous Hotline survey, released a few days ago had Obama leading by 9%. but it was not part of the tracking series so I am not sure whether the methodology is the same and trendlines can be used.) Obama’s favorability rating is at 58%, McCain’s at 52%, Palin’s 43% and Biden’s 42%. Other interesting findings: Energy is the only issue voters are unsure who would handle best (Obama 43, McCain 41). More voters think Palin is prepared (46) than unprepared (45) and only 41% of women think she is “prepared.” This tracking will not
- In Indiana, a Howey-Gauge poll conducted after the Democratic convention and the Palin pick has a tight race, with McCain leading within the margin of error, 45% to 43%.
- In Alaska, the new Ivan Moore poll confirms that McCain has secured the three electoral votes thanks to Palin. He led by 3% two weeks ago; now, the GOP ticket dominates, 54% to 35%.
We will be closely monitoring how numbers in red state evolve post-Palin, as it is in states with a strong Republican base that McCain’s gains among conservatives could be the most useful. That said, Obama continues to air ads in Obama and McCain has still not moved in - and given that he is now restricted to public financing he is unlikely to invest there unless he really has to. This is the third poll in the past two weeks that show a tight race in Indiana.
Down-the-ballot:
- In the Indiana gubernatorial race, that Howey-Gauge survey has Governor Daniels leading Long-Thompson 53% to 35%.
- I already posted Ivan Moore’s Senate numbers from Alaska, which had Begichup 49% to 46%. The survey also tested possible match-ups in AK-AL. Berkowitz led Rep. Young 54% to 37%, but Parnell led Berkowitz 49% to 38% (the margin was only 4% three weeks ago).
This is the clearest exposition yet of the stakes of Alaska’s Republican primary. What is extraordinary is that the primary already took place… ten days ago! The margin was less than 200 votes, with thousands of absentee ballots left to be counted. The Anchorage Daily News (a very useful paper these days) says that the results might be released tonight, so we will soon know whether AK-AL should be considered likely take-over or lean retention.
If Parnell prevails, it would be a big disappointment for Democrats - as is Indiana’s gubernatorial race. This is a seat Dems have eyed for two years, and spring polls suggested the general election would be etremely tight. But Daniels’s approval ratings has been recovering and he has opened a solid lead in most polls released over the summer. At least, Democrats can be relieved that Daniels’s victory will not also cost them a Senate seat, since Barack Obama did not tap Evan Bayh.
Palin-Mania Sweeping Nation
ANCHORAGE, Sept. 5, 2008
(CBS) There’s a new economic boom in Alaska — and it has nothing to do with oil.
Call it “Palin-mania.”
Companies are cashing in on a new craze sweeping the country sparked by the sudden fame of John McCain’s running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, reports CBS News correspondent John Blackstone.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/05/earlyshow/printable4418621.shtml
Regarding the Alaska polling result, I am not surprised given that the state is the most conservative and I would have expected McCain to win had he picked a conservative VP. And if Obama continued to lead there, it would be very surprising for me.
I wonder why voters are changing their opinions of the candidates as if they were being fickles. . Perhaps the fact that Palin was suddenly thurst into the public eye as almost completely unknown politician moved some voters toward McCain. But it is really bizarre to me that voters would think she is qualified based entirely on her speech despite all the revelations of potential abuse of power in public office. Speaking from a personl point of view, I think voters who think she is ready to be president are hypocrites and fickles.
Saturday Rasmussen Tracking: Obama 49, McCain 46.
Palin will not appear on any Sunday talk shows, and Rick Davis refuses to make any commitment re when or even if she will do so - http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/.
Those of us (including zoot) who intellectualize presidential politics too much risk falling into mortal sin. In a rational world, this nomination should be given the hook. In the real world, it poses one of the biggest challenges Obama’s campaign has faced.
Palin cannot be attacked frontally - she has to be forced into an environment where her inadequacies on critical issues will manifest themselves independently, and this has to be done respectfully, without the appearance of bullying. QED the refusal to expose her to interviews, thereby increasing the importance of the VP debate. In the meanwhile, they’ll keep running her onto the stump in critical states with pre-packaged speeches and total insulation from the press, while relentlessly attacking the MSM with the intent of cowing them into submission and defusing inclination when the time comes to push her too hard on questions she won’t be able to answer.
Viewed that way, a lot depends on who’s moderating the debate: - fortunately, it’s Gwen Ifill. http://tinyurl.com/5wksbu. A Wolf Blitzer would attack with a marshmallow hammer, but Ifill won’t let her stop with her pre-packaged responses.
That may also explain the current Obama strategy of ignoring her and going at McCain - they haven’t yet decided there’s much they can do about her directly without getting in too deep. Obama’s appearance tomorrow with Stephanopoulos (not the most incisive interviewer) should tell us more.
Bizarre….
Obama cannot frontally attack Palin just because he fears female backlash on the basis of perceived sexism? For the life of me, I cannot udnerstand this double standard culture. If male politicians fear running their campaigns effectively and efficiently because their opponents are females, then either we should never hav female politicians or let women do all the campaigning. No candidate should be insulated from intense political scrutiny on the basis of gender.
I think the only reason McCain picked up Palin is to fend off any attacks on him and his vice presidential runing mate.
Anonymous, agree absolutely, but it is what it is - the air is crackling with resentment over gender, class, race, globalization, hair and eye color (;-), you name it. Sure, Obama can vindicate the principle of absolute equality of treatment while starting up a dynamic that will defeat him.
It’s like a dog sizing up a raccoon - he knows he’s going to get hurt real bad if he just charges straight ahead, so sometimes the better alternative is just steer a wide arc around her….
Per Gallup, the bounce is gone - 47-45.
http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx
Let’s see what Tuesday/Wednesday brings. Both campaigns are suspending attack ads on 9-11.