Comments on: Polls: McCain gains 8% in CBS poll, Obama takes first lead in red ND but loses opening in AK http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/09/04/mccain-gains-8-in-cbs-poll-obama-loses-opening-in-ak-but-takes-first-lead-in-red-nd/ Obsessive political analysis Sat, 20 Mar 2010 10:43:51 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Wayne http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/09/04/mccain-gains-8-in-cbs-poll-obama-loses-opening-in-ak-but-takes-first-lead-in-red-nd/comment-page-1/#comment-3556 Wayne Fri, 05 Sep 2008 14:05:02 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=2315#comment-3556 Don't trust the bad numbers in MO-09. John McCain and Sarah Palin were in Missouri's 9th District at a 23,000 person rally that earned tons of free local media the day before the start of the two day Survey USA poll of MO-09. McCain, Palin, Bond, Hulshof, Luetkemeyer all shared the stage at the rally along with some Country Western singers. Any poll held immediately after an all day infomercial for one side is likely to give a rally bubble just like the DNC and RNC give convention bumps. I'd like to see Obama come to a baseball stadium with all the popular Democrats in Missouri and then have a poll immediately after that. Given the favorable conditions of the local events on the ground at the time of this poll for McCain and Luetkemeyer I have to believe Obama is much closer than 24 down and Baker is probably in a dead heat with Luetkemeyer (as an earlier poll hinted). Don’t trust the bad numbers in MO-09.

John McCain and Sarah Palin were in Missouri’s 9th District at a 23,000 person rally that earned tons of free local media the day before the start of the two day Survey USA poll of MO-09.

McCain, Palin, Bond, Hulshof, Luetkemeyer all shared the stage at the rally along with some Country Western singers.

Any poll held immediately after an all day infomercial for one side is likely to give a rally bubble just like the DNC and RNC give convention bumps.

I’d like to see Obama come to a baseball stadium with all the popular Democrats in Missouri and then have a poll immediately after that.

Given the favorable conditions of the local events on the ground at the time of this poll for McCain and Luetkemeyer I have to believe Obama is much closer than 24 down and Baker is probably in a dead heat with Luetkemeyer (as an earlier poll hinted).

]]> By: Kyle http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/09/04/mccain-gains-8-in-cbs-poll-obama-loses-opening-in-ak-but-takes-first-lead-in-red-nd/comment-page-1/#comment-3555 Kyle Fri, 05 Sep 2008 12:53:41 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=2315#comment-3555 CBS uses very poor modeling (their party identification numbers are not like anyone else's) and they have been consistently the least accurate poll outside of Zogby. I wouldn't put much faith in that. CBS uses very poor modeling (their party identification numbers are not like anyone else’s) and they have been consistently the least accurate poll outside of Zogby.

I wouldn’t put much faith in that.

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