Campaign Diaries

The past week has been hard on poll junkies. Of course, suspending presidential polling in this time of complete flux and constant bounces is the responsible thing to do, but who expects pollsters and media outlets to be responsible? Sure, we got our fair share of national surveys, but that can’t replace a juicy poll from Ohio or fresh numbers from Colorado. In fact, the last state polls we had seen - either senatorial or presidential - were released last Wednesday afternoon!

Finally, we got some new numbers today, and they are mostly good for Obama - starting with CNN’s polls from three Midwestern states (the CNN polls were conducted Sunday through Tuesday, so post-Denver/Palin but pre-St. Paul):

• In Iowa (polling history), Obama leads 55% to 40% - and is even ahead among rural voters! In a 5-way race (with Nader, Barr and McKinney), Obama leads by 13% and Nader gets 4%, Barr 3% and McKinney 2%.

• In Ohio (polling history), Obama is up 47% to 45%, a margin that is well within the MoE. There is no exact breakdown of the internals, but the story says McCain is solidly winning the blue-collar white vote. In a way-way race, Obama is up by 1%, with 5% for Ralph Nader.

• In Minnesota (polling history), Obama is up 53% to 41%. He leads by 14% in a 5-way race.

• In North Carolina (polling history), a poll conducted before the Democratic convention by Democratic but reputable pollster Democracy Corps finds McCain leading 47% to 44% only. Barr gets 3%. Without leaners, the two are tied at 43%.

• As for New Mexico (polling history), we do not have a statewide poll but one of the presidential race in NM-01 (SUSA polled this in the context of a House poll). This is significant because NM-01 is the swing district of the state. NM-02 and NM-03 are heavily Republican and heavily Democratic, but Kerry won NM-01 by 3%. In this poll, he leads 55% to 41%.

• Also note that both tracking polls find Obama’s bounce fading a bit today, as Gallup has Obama up 49% to 43% (down from an 8% lead yesterday) and Rasmussen has him up 50% to 45% (down from a 6% lead yesterday).

There is nothing surprising in these numbers: Minnesota, Iowa and New Mexico are all rated lean Obama in my latest electoral college ratings while Ohio is a toss-up and North Carolina remains lean McCain though all polls that have been released for months now show McCain’s lead to be in low single-digits. That said, the margins in the three former states are certainly very encouraging for Democrats.

It has been a while that we have considered Iowa to be more safely Democratic than many of the Kerry states, as Obama retains his caucus organization while McCain skipped the state this year and in 2000. Obama looked to be comfortably leading in Minnesota but August polls found a dramatically tightening race, so much so that there wasn’t much of a lead left for Obama two weeks ago. But blue-leaning states like Minnesota are obviously the ones in which a post-convention bounce will be felt the most as Obama unites his base. Finally, Obama is sure to have a comfortable lead statewide in New Mexico if he leads in NM-01 by 14%. This is in line with last week’s CNN poll from the state that had Obama leading by 15%.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

• That same Democracy Corps poll finds Kay Hagan ahead 50% to 45% against Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina’s senatorial race (polling history).

• In the gubernatorial race, however, Beverly Perdue and Pat McCrory are tied at 46%.

• And in the NM-01 poll’s House match-up, Democratic candidate Martin Heinrich narrowly leads Darren White 51% to 46%.

This is the second poll in a row to find Hagan with a lead after PPP’s delivery last week. And while it comes from a Democratic pollster, it is not an internal poll - as evidenced by the fact that the entire memo has been released. Furthermore, the gubernatorial race is tighter than most polls (Perdue usually has a narrow lead), so it should not be dismissed as propaganda from the blue team. The DSCC has unleashed a wave of ads attacking Dole, and almost 70% of respondents had told PPP they had seen those ads last week, so there is an explanation as to Dole’s dramatic slippage. For a race that Democrats were merely hoping would be in play, it is looking awfully competitive. The NRSC hast just released its first attack ad against Hagan, so we will see what effect that has. The electorate looks particularly volatile in this race.

As for NM-01, it is one of the top priorities for Democrats, as it is a district that leans ever so slightly blue but they have repeatedly fell short at the House level. Darren White is a strong candidate for Republicans, and it is a testament to GOP resilience in this district that Democrats have not put it away. This poll finds a close race, which is what we have come to expect. An internal poll for White in late July find the Republican with a narrow lead.