Campaign Diaries

The Palin pick has distracted me from down-the-ballot races since Thursday morning, and it is time to correct that - starting with the latest news from MD-01, a staunchly Republican district that Bush carried with 62% of the vote in 2004. [Update: Jaxx provides a useful and detailed overview of the district and how it has been gerrymandered in the comments section.] If Democrats will ever have an opening, it’s this year.

Republican incumbent Wayne Gilchrest was defeated in the February 13th GOP primary by state Senator Andy Harris in what was an ideological battle between the moderate Gilchrest and his conservative challenger. Now, Gilchrest is endorsing Democrat Frank Kratovil, in a move that is likely to confirm to Republicans that they should have thrown Gilchrest out. Gilchrest’s move is sure to generate headlines and be touted by Democrats at a time independents are looking for encouragement to bolt from the Republican Party.

Harris remains heavily favored, but Democrats were already eying this seat before Gilchrest’s decision.  Kratovil was added to their Red-to-blue program, suggesting that the DCCC is closely monitoring the race and will invest in the district if there are signs that it can pull off an upset. However, MD-01 was not included in the long list of districts in which the DCCC reserved air time for the fall. The latest poll and only poll of the race is an internal poll released by the Harris campaign that showed him ahead 44% to 28% - a very comfortable margin but one that does give an opening to the Democrat.

Meanwhile, and while we have not gotten a single presidential state poll since Wednesday, we did get 4 House surveys since my latest ratings (don’t count on this ever happening again):

• The biggest news is no doubt SUSA’s survey from AL-02. It shows Republican Jay Love leading Democratic candidate Bobby Bright 56% to 39%. McCain leads Obama 69% to 26% in the district, a bigger margin than Bush prevailed by (67% to 33%).

This is somewhat of a surprise as three polls had been released of the race, all pointing in a different direction. An independent poll and an internal poll for Bright had him leading by 10% while an internal poll for Love had him ahead by 2%. One possible question mark is the share of the black vote, which SUSA pegs at 16% even though African-Americans make up 30% of the district. I have not been able to find out estimates of the share of the black vote in past elections, nor what the other AL-02 surveys showed. The fact that Obama is running weaker than Kerry’s already dismal showing suggests that the black vote might have been under-sampled indeed, though I trust SUSA more than the other polling outlets.

If anything, this is a reminder of how huge an upset Bright’s victory would be in a district that is overwhelmingly Republican and where white voters back McCain with 83% of the vote. Despite the positive signs pointing at Bright’s direction, this district will never allow a Democratic blow-out. In other polls:

• In MN-03, a SUSA poll of yet another open seat finds a toss-up, with Republican Erik Paulsen getting 44% to Ashwin Media’s 41%. In what is one of the ultimate swing districts, Obama leads McCain by 2% - a 5% improvement over Kerry’s showing.

• In NC-08, PPP finds Robin Hayes’s lead over repeat challenger Larry Kissell shrinking over the past month. He is now ahead 44% to 39% (7% last month). In a district Bush won by 9% in 2004, Obama and McCain are tied and Hagan leads Dole by 4% - suggesting that statewide Democrats clearly have a shot at victory!

• In FL-21, an internal poll by the Diaz-Balart campaign finds him leading Raul Martinez 48% to 36%. This is a response to last week’s SUSA poll that had the Democratic challenger up 50% to 48%.

• In IL-18, an internal poll for the campaign of 27-year old Republican Aaron Schock finds him ahead 56% to 27% against Democratic nominee Colleen Callahan. This is an open seat Democrats had some hopes of winning.

All these districts are on my latest House ratings, and unless the DCCC or the Callahan campaign release a poll countering Schock’s internal survey the GOP can at least breath a bit easier there. This is a heavily Republican district (Bush won with 58% of the vote), but Democrats were hoping that Obama’s presence at the head of the ticket and the Democratic bent could help them pick up a seat.

The FL-21 numbers, however, should be taken with more skepticism as we know of an independent poll that contradicts them. But note that Diaz-Balart’s level of support is the same in the two surveys, but that the number of undecideds is widely different. As always with internal polls, wonder why this is the model that was used - did pushing undecideds result in Democratic gains?

As for NC-08 and MN-03, there are both toss-ups, as most things seem to be in North Carolina. As far as I can think of, voters in NC-08 are going to be the only voters in the country to cast ballots for four truly competitive races - for president, Senate, for the governor and for the House.