Modern political campaigns are supposed to control everything down to the smallest detail, but the past 72 hours have reduced the McCain campaign to a state of improvisation. Sure, Sarah Palin was not an out-of-the-blue pick which popped up in McCain’s brain at the last-minute; she submitted her vetting information months ago, after all, which means that she was under consideration as soon as the veepstakes were launched.
But it does look like her name reemerged as a serious contender only in the final days before the pick, leaving the legal team a short amount of time to take a serious look at her. It is still not clear if political advisers vetted Palin at all, parsing through her stances and past statements to see if they contained anything that could embarrass the McCain campaign. But numerous reports are pointing out that McCain’s team conducted little to no field work in Alaska and did not talk to players of Alaskan politics. In fact, Andrea Mitchell reported that Republicans are now traveling to Alaska to do some research!
The result is truly outstanding. The past 24 hours alone have led to a flurry of revelations about Sarah Palin, the most high-profile of which is not the most politically embarrassing. None of them is threatening by itself, but put together they are creating a lot of noise and only encouraging the press to delve further into Palin’s past. And there is no telling what else remains out there - and what has to make Republicans nervous is that McCain doesn’t seem to know either.
Indeed, the McCain campaign is looking downright ignorant about a lot of these stories which is making their response unprepared and muddied. And this is ultimately the great risk of the Palin pick: If the McCain campaign has to think of ways to answer new questions it was not aware of every day, it could prove quite a distraction.
So let’s review what we have learned up to now, starting with the biggest bombshell of them all: Sarah Palin’s teenage daughter Bristol is 5-months pregnant and will marry the father of the baby soon. This revelation followed days of rumors that Sarah’s youngest kid was in fact Bristol’s and that she had covered up her daughter’s pregnancy. Steve Schmidt refused to say whether McCain knew about this before picking Palin, but other sources indicated he did - but most people in the campaign did not and neither did Palin’s spokesperson.
It is impossible to judge what effect if any this revelation might have on the campaign. Social conservatives could to be as attracted to the fact that Bristol chose to carry the baby than in Sarah’s decision to keep Trig; or they might find it worrisome that the family could serve as a role model for other teenagers. But one thing is clear: This is noise, this is a distraction and the fact that no one in the GOP really knew how to deal with it only accentuated the cacophony.
Another big story everyone is starting to look at is Palin’s relationship with Alaska’s Independence Party. This organization demands a vote on secession and seeks “the complete repatriation of the public lands, held by the federal government, to the state and people of Alaska.” Now, the Independence Party is saying that Sarah Palin and her husband Todd were both members of the group in the 1990s. Was also unearthed this welcome video shot by Palin for the Independence Party’s convention, as well as this video of a party’s chairman touting that the new Governor was a member of the party. If this story gets any further, it could prove very embarrassing for the GOP. At the very least, Palin will be asked why she wants to be the vice-president of the US when she belonged to a party that wanted to secede from it.
Furthermore, two key lines of the first version of Palin’s stump speech - the one she delivered in Dayton, OH on Friday - have come back to haunt the campaign, a clear sign that they had not really checked for everything they were saying. First, Palin’s praise of Hillary Clinton (a move that was stunningly shrewd) was meet with boos at a Saturday rally. This is obviously not surprising given how Republican activists feel about Clinton, but the campaign should have thought that through and stories were written Palin’s subsequent abandoning of that line. The GOP is at least lucky that McCain figured out that was a losing sentence before the convention delegates booed it on Wednesday.
Second, Palin had touted her opposition to the bridge to Ketchikan (a.k.a. nowhere) on Friday, saying that her state did not need the federal government for such things. “I told Congress, thanks but no thanks on that bridge to nowhere,” she said. It only took the Anchorage Daily News two days to flatly contradict Palin’s statement, reporting that she had campaigned on a pro-bridge platform in 2006, pledging to make “progress on that bridge project.” Adds the Daily News, “she said she could feel the town’s pain at being derided as a nowhere by prominent politicians.” Second, she did not reject the earnmark money Congress sent her for the project - she only used it elsewhere.
On Friday, Palin was one of those prominent politicians to call Ketchikan “nowhere,” but the media’s quick reporting could prevent her from mentioning her opposition to this infamous bridge in future speeches and it damages one of her most high-profile claims at fiscal discipline. If the McCain campaign touted this story as much as they did in the first 48 hours of the Palin pick, chances are they were not aware of it - had not done enough research to find statements Palin made just two years ago.
Then, there is “troopergate,” which barely seems worth mentioning now that there are all these other questions surrounding Palin, but this is clearly one of the big question marks surrounding her. (If you are still looking for some background information, here is more. Remember that the question is not only whether she pressured the state’s Public Safety Commissioner Walter Monegan to fire her ex-brother-in-law and then fired him because of his refusal, but also whether any aide or her husband did so and if so whether she knew about it).
Palin has now taken a private lawyer to advise her in this investigation, and Walter Monegan is showing signs that he intends to brings Palin down as he went to the press to detail what happened between him, Sarah and Todd. The investigating team is scheduled to release its report on October 31st, just days before the election. If Palin is found to have used her office abusively, such a conclusion would be handed down just days after the Ted Stevens verdict, and while the two have little in common in scale or in nature, the back-to-back events could put a lot of attention on the Alaska Republican Party’s ethical problems.
Another question is Sarah Palin’s social conservatism. That is, of course, one of the reasons McCain chose her, but how much does McCain want Palin’s positions to be discussed in the mainstream press? It was one thing that Palin is well to the right of McCain on abortion, that she does not believe in man-made global warming nor in evolution and favors the teaching of creationism, she also favors abstinence-only progams. McCain shares that latter position, but not all of the others, and he generally stays away from such topics. In fact, his campaign wanted to cultivate the impression that he was more of a moderate on social issues and exploit the misguided perception that McCain is pro-choice.
Finally, there is the question of the Jewish vote. The McCain campaign has denied that Palin backed Pat Buchanan in 1996 or 1999, but Buchanan himself called her one of his “brigaders.” If anything, Jewish voters are one constituency in which her Christian social conservatism could play against her, and Politico’s Ben Smith reports that there is a lot of e-mail traffic in the Jewish community about Palin and her thoughts on Israel. This is a constituency McCain was hoping to make some progress in, and that was supposed to be one of the reasons he had an edge in Florida.
At the very least, Palin is bound to make some mistakes in the coming weeks, just as any politician thrust under the spotlight overnight would make mistakes. For now, Palin is still doing her introductory tour and preparing for the convention, but she will have to engage in more spontaneous interviews soon and she is surely preparing for that now. But there are a lot of issues that Palin has not had to deal with as Governor of Alaska and knowing the appropriate response or the exact phrasing to use on some of the more delicate diplomatic matters (in particular Israel) takes months of preparations, not a few days.
We knew that the Palin choice was a gamble. As I have said many times, this pick could still go either way and there are a lot of ways in which Palin has proved a boost for McCain - he has stolen the spotlight, the conservative base feeling energized is as much reward as McCain should have even dreamt of. For now, none of the revelations are enough to make McCain regret that he chose her, but he better hope that Palin stands up well under further scrutiny.
Update: Ben Smith writes, “I can’t remember the last introduction to the national scene this rocky, and it gets worse every hour — and even before the investigative reporters have settled in to Anchorage.” At least so much problematic news about Palin is emerging at once that it might just all be too much to make an impression. Just check out condensed everything is in this Times piece. And is the McCain campaign now opening itself to accusations of having used Gustav to dump bad news? Says the New York Times:
Mr. McCain’s aides disclosed the news at the same time as Hurricane Gustav struck land in what they said was an orchestrated attempt to minimize attention to it… Mr. McCain’s campaign, which has shown itself adept at handling the news media, tried to influence coverage of the disclosure by releasing it as Hurricane Gustav was slamming into the Gulf Coast… It was also by every appearance tucked into a series of problematic tidbits released about Ms. Palin’s past, including news that her husband, Todd, was arrested for driving while impaired in 1986.
“We are going to flush the toilet,” said Tucker Eskew, who is a senior adviser to Ms. Palin, describing the campaign’s plans for Labor Day, when much of the nation was busy with family and social activities.
As for the pregnacy, so far I don’t think social conservatives mind. They usually don’t care much about how politicians acted, as long they agree to advance the social conservative agenda in the future.
Look at Carter and Reagan, for example. Carter was a life-long Baptist who went to church and taught Sunday school every week and led a Christian life (other than lusting in his heart!), but he wasn’t going to do what Jerry Falwell told him to.
Reagan on the other hand, was divorced, never went to church, and even legalized abortion in California, but he said he would follow Falwell’s agenda.
Palin supports abstinence only programs - she should tell her daughter!
The press will continue digging and I expect some independent group or the Obama campaign will hit McCain on the way he choose her - saying something like, if McCain takes such little care choosing his number2 what sort of appointments will he make in the future (heck of a job Brownie maybe!)
All the mini “scandals” around her plus her previous statementsshould haunt her. If they tout her opposition to the bridge to nowhere when infact she supported it and then when it failed she spent the money somewhere else. That should surely hit her “reformist” image.
Wow Palin was either a member of a party that wants Alaska to secede or tacitly supported them. And she wants to be VP and then President of the UNITED States!! I think this is a killer fact to hit her with. It lends even more credence to the suggestion hardly vetted her. We know the FBI didn`t vet her. This is starting to get a life of its own and will turn out to be a net negative for McCain. Obama is still polling 49% as of the end of Sunday.
Palin’s choice has had some positives and some negatives for McCain (not all know as of now though). On balance I think it will be an overall negative effect.
1. Hillary Clinton will now play a more visible role - not just to ensure Obama wins but to help ensure she is the first women elected President. She does not want to see Palin use the movement Hillary built when Plain has not done much for women’s issues.
2. The drip-drip of stories alleging Palin was part of a separatist party, she ran a 527 for Stevens, she preaches abstinence and her daughter is pregnant (out of wedlock and at 17), she was not really vetted, she supported the bridge to nowhere and then spent the money on other things, her husband had a DUI etc etc.
3. The national press will now be searching for anything and the GOP Senate Majority leader up in Alaska is no fan, nor are the two largest newspapers who will dish the dirt on her.
4. Choosing her has reduced the effectiveness of “ready to lead” and “experience” questions about Obama/Biden.
Sure she fired up the base, but McCain had already got 87% of the base before her selection and I am sure he would have improved further as the attacks on Obama escalated. I think we will see by next week Obama having a solid 4%lead in Gallup tracking which will take us back to where we were before all the negative celebrity ads. Thereby ruining the GOP’s work in the past 2 months.
we’ll see how much of this goes to be actively discussed in MSM, in interviews, etc. It’s amazing how these things are floating. Much of these will die soon, since some of them are rumors or little importance stuff (Todd’s DWI, Buchanan’s alledged support, for instance), but I wonder what kind of desperation or risk McCain had to have to make this pick, with little or no vetting. It would be good for the Obama campaign to not attack directly and let in this stage that the media takes the lead on these issues, to not appear trying to destroy a woman’s reputation. If some of these stays after the convention, then what survives can be used from the Dem to attack the ticket directly.
An incisive look at all of the issues facing the McCain campaign re: Palin. The most disturbing (if I had to choose) is her support for the Alaska Independence Party. To imagine that this rock was left unturned is very disturbing. If McCain wins, we would have a VP who truly is not qualified or “fit” for the job. The Obama campaign now needs no further proof of Palin’s inability to lead the country. It is not just her lack of experience but her lack of patriotism. Case closed.
Kudos on the C-Span link! Your work is the best I’ve found on the web.
I think the GOP was desperate to have a woman on the ticket in a pathetic attempt to attract disaffected Hillary voters. As a Hillary supporter myself, I think it was insulting and blatant pandering. I didn’t support Hillary just because she was a woman, I supported her because of her stand on the issues. And unlike the GOP, I did some research into Sarah Palin’s background. I found out more in 30 minutes than John McCain knew before he chose her for his number two. Sarah Palin is an extreme right winger, and is the polar opposite of Hillary Clinton, no pun intended. As the first big decision of his future presidency, John McCain made a risky and potentially disastrous choice. so much for the judgment and experience to lead, John!
Sarah Palin gave birth to a baby with Down’s Syndrome at the age of 44.
Is anyone else appalled at this?
The risk of giving birth to a baby with Down’s Syndrome is extremely high in women over 40 (and even higher when the father is also over 40).
http://www.webmd.com/infertility-and-reproduction/news/20030701/dad-age-down-syndrome
Sarah Palin “opposes the use of birth control pills and condoms even among married couples”.
I am disgusted by this irresponsible behaviour. To give birth at age 44 to a baby with Down’s because you refuse to use birth control inexcusable. Ignoring the dangers that you expose yourself and your baby to by refusing to use birth control after 40 is negligent and careless. To believe that a woman like this has the opportunity to become Vice President of the United States of America in 2008 makes me ill.
Does anyone else share this opinion?
frogcatcher,
This is a delicate subject for MSM, but I agree with you in asking why would you try or not be careful in having a kid when you are past 40, knowing that the possibility with Down syndrome or other diseases are higher. And this is something that a LOT of high-class conservative families face, since they are so strict in the opposition to birth methods, but also because THEY CAN AFFORD IT. This happens a lot in Latin America’s Catholic higher class, having 5+ kids per family and many of them having one with problems, and because they can afford it they think it’s natural to everybody, or they want us to believe so. So who’s out of touch? This would be an excellent debate, but it is something nobody wants to touch.
If Palin’s support for Buchanan is confirmed, it will be lethal for the Jewish-American vote. It has nothing to do with Israel - Buchanan is universally and justifiably reviled as being the foremost anti-Semite in American political life.
NY, CA, etc. are beyond McCain’s reach in a rational world, but it will be interesting to watch trend lines in FL polling. McCain must be living in dread that there’s a video floating around showing Palin making nasty comments about the Jewish community.
Beyond that, as Felipe and others point out, this underscores McCain’s impulsiveness and lack of prudence, going for a little known figure with extreme views without a thorough vetting. Imagine this man conducting our foreign policy in a volatile time….he’s temperamentally unsuited for the presidency, and that’s the worst part of this for me.
I watched the youtube videos for the Alaska Independence party, and I don’t find them particularly incriminating. Although they might reflect an oddity in her personality.
I’ve always thought especially in this election that since senators running for president usually don’t have much “executive experience” that how they manage their campaign is really well reflected in how their personalities can govern (aka the first large budget thing in their lives they usually have to manage). It is interesting to see McCain wanting to pick Lieberman to the very end if all of the reporting is accurate. It makes you wonder how much vetting Palin received since it doesn’t seem like the campaign even took the time to get an internet subscription to all of Alaska’s newspapers to see what they have to say about their governer.
frogcatcher, I agree with Felipe that what you bring up is a delicate subject. In my family, many of the people have been career oriented and even the ones that aren’t have traditionally gotten married later in life, so have a child when you are 40 is fairly normal to me. Although I don’t agree with the governer about birth control, I guess I also believe that its her right to have another child. I do agree with you though that there are substantial risks to have a child that late in life and people need to take those into consideration in planning their families. I’m sorry if it sounds as though I maybe waffling on this point.
Intrade market now has a board up that asks will Palin be dumped before the election. At this moment it’s at 12% that she will.
I think there is some confusion about Palins’s position on abortion. I and most fare minded people don’t care whether or not Palin and/or her daughter give bith to children under trying circumstances. In fact I congratulate them on their courage. What bothers me and many others is that she wants to remove the choice she made and impose her values on everyone in America.
I know the states rights arguement; but her personal position is no abortion under any circumstances.
I am surprised that the MSM has not pounced on the AIP story. But on second thought, I’m not sure that it’s enough to force her out. If anything all these revelations are just going to hang around until election day, and keep doubts about her readiness alive in the independent voters’ minds.
As an Obama supporter, I would argue that the best we can hope for is that Palin remains on the ticket.
As it has been pointed out elsewhere in the blogoshere, since Palin has scant experience in governance and scant knowledge of foreign policy she has really very little ammunition to attack Obama with.
Palin is an extreme social conservative (hence why people like Richard Lang of the Baptist National Convention and others are very happy). She wants no exceptions (other than life of mother) for outlawing abortions, she does not believe in evolution, she doesn`t believe in global warming and a Pat Buchanan supporter in 1996.
Troopergate will be reported on in late October, sot hat issue will be kept live throughout the campaign.
I would say the two greatest issues to hit her with now are being for the bridge to nowhere before she was against it and for supporting the AIP. Does she want to be VP of 49 or 50 states!!
Those two issues steer clear of any sexism charge or intruding on family.