In 2005, the federal government’s horrendous response to Katrina sealed President Bush’s unpopularity. Three years later and merely days after Katrina’s anniversary, another storm - the “mother of all storms” said Mayor Nagin - threatens Louisiana. I stayed away from discussing Gustav’s political consequences for as long as I could, but this remains an electoral blog and the story’s political ramifications are too significant to not address here. As New Orleans is now evacuating 24 hours from the start of the Republican convention, that topic looks inescapable.
First, let’s get one thing straight: Ballot deadlines are looming and the GOP has to hold some kind of convention extremely soon to officially nominate John McCain and Sarah Palin and get them on state ballots. And Republicans cannot delay the convention: Thousands of flights, hotel reservations and other preparations have already been done. The convention can be shortened, but it is hardly feasible to postpone it.
Thus, Republicans have to prepare for the coming week without knowing just how bad the damage will be. This is a very subtle balancing act:
- On the one hand, the GOP convention is meant to be a giant celebration of the party’s nominee; it is supposed to introduce John McCain’s story to voters while also attacking Obama. On the other hand, holding a big party when a natural disaster is hitting the Gulf would not come across well - to say the least - and partisan speeches blasting Obama would not play off so well either.
- On the one hand, Republicans will want to show their commitment to helping the devastated states. On the other, they have to be careful to not politicize Gustav.
For now, Gustav’s one known consequence on the GOP convention is that the Monday night line-up is decimated. George Bush and Dick Cheney have both canceled their trip to Minneapolis. Three years after Katrina, the last thing Bush wants to do is look like he is neglecting yet another hurricane. Instead, Bush might address the nation about Gustav with a live televised address from the White House. And Arnold Schwarzenegger has also canceled his Monday night appearance because of a budget crisis in Sacramento. [Update: Well, the GOP has gone forward and canceled Monday's convention events but the afternoon session meant to get the process going. No word yet on what happens after Monday.]
Politico writes that these cancellations are a “crushing disappointment” for the convention organizers, but I am certainly not sure that is true. For weeks now, GOP strategists have been terrified that Bush’s presence at the convention would make it easier for Obama to tie him to McCain. In 2000, Democrats transformed Bill Clinton’s Monday night speech into a big occasion, but that was certainly not going to be the case tomorrow night. Now, Monday (the night organizers were the most worried about, the night that was going to be about Bush, the night that they wouldn’t really be able to air any attacks on Obama anyway) has been scrapped!
Beyond that first night, however, the convention being washed away could become disastrous for Republicans as they would lose their opportunity to make their case in a vacuum in front of millions of viewers. This is millions of dollars of preparation we are talking about, and a shot at a week-long infomercial. (1) Speakers like Rudy Giuliani who were going to go all-out against Obama and against the Democratic Party will surely be forced to quiet their tone to avoid sounding too partisan. (2) Will there even be TV coverage? Republicans only have four days (including four hours of primetime on network TV) to make their case to voters. But TV anchors, network news and the press will now be looking at the Gulf, not at the Twin Cities.
The McCain campaign is trying to make the most of this bad situation and treat the convention’s last three days as an opportunity to celebrate McCain’s service and sacrifice, an opportunity to highlight McCain’s slogan - “country first” - and make him look uninterested in attacking his opponents. (After a summer of attack ads, it would be quite remarkable if McCain pulls this off.) Politico writes that Gustav could allow for a Republican redemption for McCain to show that he is competent and interesting in “serving a cause greater than yourself.” That is indeed what McCain was going for today when he said the convention would become “a call to the nation for action.” He told reporters:
I pledge that tomorrow night and if necessary throughout our convention, we will act as Americans and not as Republicans because America needs us now. No matter what we are — Republican or Democratic — America needs us to do what all Americans have always done in times of disaster and challenge.
People expect the convention to be a partisan celebration, but McCain could transform it into a giant public service gathering meant to help the hurricane victims. There is talk of holding a telethon, getting the Red Cross involved and get delegated to raise money, prepare help packets. In other words, Republicans would look to show McCain is the anti-Bush, someone who can raise to the challenge, put politics aside and tap into the “American spirit.” As Democrats reminded us over and over again last week (starting with Mark Warner), the failure to do so was Bush’s great weakness.
The question, of course, is how much media time this would gain, and how would it be organized? Who would be the speakers, would they address politics and would they praise McCain? How much will the press be looking at Louisana, and how much time will there be for Republicans to get any coverage at all? If the Republicans’ public service efforts are simply mentioned in news stories rather than broadcast, the Obama campaign’s own efforts to mobilize volunteers and use its e-mail list will surely be mentioned as well.
But for the GOP, the biggest risk would be to look like it is politicizing the occasion and exploiting Gustav for political gain. No one will blame Republicans for cutting down on the political speeches and devoting time to fundraising for hurricane victims, but McCain might be crossing the line with this idea to deliver his acceptance speech via satellite from the devastated zones rather than live from the convention hall. There is no telling how that might look on television nor how people would react, but it is difficult to think of a more opportunistic move.
McCain already visited an emergency center in Mississippi today with his wife and Sarah Palin. Obama, on the other hand, said that he would not go to the threatened areas because he was afraid his presence might distract local authorities from more pressing concerns. “The thing that I always am concerned about in the middle of a storm is whether we’re drawing resources away from folks on the ground,” Obama said, while being careful of adding that “it is fine” of McCain to visit Mississippi. You might remember that a similar controversy arose earlier in the summer when McCain visited the flooded areas of Iowa and Obama chose to stay away.
In short: Republicans are unlikely to mind that Bush and Cheney cancelled their appearances but beyond that they are losing their big week. They have somewhat of a Plan B, which is to highlight McCain’s service and his willingness to put country above partisan politics. That could certainly help improve McCain’s image and reestablish some of his maverick reputation. But it could also backfire if McCain pushes it too far. Like many things concering the GOP these days, we will have to wait and see.
I agree that cancelation of Monday night except for the necessary portions is benefical to McCain because this means that George Bush won’t be up front and center. However, it is very likely that the rest of the convention will heavily affected by Gustav as well, which will be negative, as it will rob the GOP of a chance to attack Obama while the media is focused on them. Gustav will also delay the unveiling of Palin, which is something the GOP doesn’t want because thier is less time for correction if Palin makes a mistake . Even purely positive coverage of McCain may seem fickle compared to all of the people who are in danger because of Gustav.
Also, if McCain decides to accept the nominantion via satellite from New Orleans or another area likely to be devasted by the Hurricane, then Democrats (if not Obama or Biden then certainly others) will mercessly attack McCain for using Gustav for political campaing, and that could damage McCain’s campaign to a point that is unrecoverable as the final fall sprint approaches. Maybe McCain wants to seem that he cares more about Hurricane victims than Bush and make himself look bipartisan by visiting all of these areas, but he is running for President, not currently occupying it, and alot of the visiting that he does will look political and perhaps oppurtinisitic.
How can anyone blame the government for the lack of intelligence of those who won’t evacuate from an oncoming, predicted hurricane?
Face it, these people are the ones the liberals have made due to them living for generations on government handouts. This is the primary reason why I will not vote for more government - it goes to perpetuating these leaches on society. Get off your butts and get a job. No one owes you a lifetime of government subsidies. And don’t give me that hyphenated-American crap about being kept down. That chip on your shoulder died in the ’60’s when MLK told everyone how it was to be. Don’t martyr the preacher, do what he told you to do!
Dan:
You must be one of George Bushs compassionate conservatives.
I do feel badly for the many people who have worked all year to put on Republican convention. I know what it is like to see all your hard work go down te drain and I was looking forward to seeing the pagent play out over the next few days.
It is very difficult to deal with a natural disaster from a political/media point of view. There is a fine line between appearing sympatitic and reasuring and appearing to use the event for political gain. It will be the toughest test yet for the McCain campaign.
I’m glad they are using a modest set. It highlights the contrast between the real thing (McCain) and the paper statesman that is Barack Obama.
McCain doesn’t need theatrics or distractions. He doesn’t need to impress anybody by stagecraft or fancy speeches. He’s spent a lifetime fighting for his country, five years in a prison camp, decades as a maverick in Congress holding the banner of reform.
His life story will contrast sharply with that of the man who came out of the Chicago machine, the South Side politician who eats with Bill Ayers and probably other terrorists we don’t even know about, who attends church where the preacher says “God damn America!” and everybody jumps to their feet in wild adulation.
Obama promises “change” but what kind of change? Change for the worse. With the selection of Sarah Palin, McCain has once and for all solidified his claim on the mantle of Reform. For Obama the game is over, and his dream will fade.
If he’s lucky his State will not judge him so harshly for how he’s treated them during his time as a US senator. Elected to represent the people of Illinois, he instead thought it was more important to write another volume of autobiography and run for president.
In two years the people of Illinois will have their say and perhaps it will be “Change.”
Is Sarah Palin really the mother of Trig Palin?
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/30/121350/137/486/580223
Taniel, time to get a site moderator. We have equal opportunity violators, now that Chris has chimed in from the Left to supplement Dan’s nastiness from the Right.
Look, I think Palin is possibly the most unprepared person ever nominated for the Vice-presidency, but (a) this is irrelevant if (remotely) true, and (b) even if arguably relevant, unless there’s irrefutable proof, this kind of garbage should be kept off the site.
Taniel has run a terrific forum for ideas, some of which I totally disagree with, but they’re ideas, not slander or statements based on conspiracy-type reasoning. Recently, there’s been an influx of new names, some of whom are just throwing things at the wall. It’s beginning to affect the experience, which is a shame.
I am wary of even bringing this up but it will be a part of the campaign very soon.
An internet rumor about Sarah Palin has broken tonight and has the potential to do great harm to the McCain campaign. Even if there is no truth to it there is enough there to spark interest by the tabloid media. By tomorrow PM this will be all over the net and reporters will be checking Palin’s every photo, email and travel record. After the Edwards fiasco the MSM will also be wary of denials and excuses.
I sincerly hope, for the sake of her family, that there is no truth to this but it is out now and nomatter how we feel it will not go away.
People who conclude Palin is not qualified to be vice-president may forget the modest experience of both Gore and Quayle when they came to office. Unlike governors or chief executives, senators are committee people. And the avid political readers know that Biden’s transcript showed he barely made it out of law school. The senate was a great career choice for him. Palin may not have been my first pick, but unlike Pelosi and many other people who get placed into political position, her accomplishments have been 100% her own doing, not family given, and you have to give her credit for that. Palin could be the IQ equivalent of Joe Biden but I think that is unlikely. In any event, based on the facts to date, I know which of those two will worry less about how their hair looks as they go about their work.
Timmo, explain to me if you can how you can equate 1.5+ yrs experience as governor of a sparsely-populated state with no knowledge of foreign affairs with Gore’s 15+ years in Congress? Furthermore, Biden’s record of achievement in over 35 years in the Senate negates whatever problems he had in law school.
You may not like their politics, but their experience edge is undeniable. I know that we all have our favorites and want to proselytize for them, but this is unreal.
I am guilty of damaging the integrity of this site a couple of days ago and I am very sorry. I will abide by the rules and keep my comments intellectual, you have something special. Now, about the effects of Gustav on the political scene I think is more of a challenge for Obama. McCain will still have the political spotlight and can define himself and Palin any way they want. Before it would have been harder because this was planned months in advance, and the political climate has changed drastically since then. Now that the planning is out the window he is free to change his strategy without looking like a flip flopper. Obama on the other hand, cannot change himself. He has Biden the fierce attack dog that can no longer attack and promises of hope along with the pressure of having to find a way to show his leadership skills…without the luxury of government power. The only way he can get over McCain’s bounce is to mobilize his volunteers (rather than directing them to Red Cross) and have them work under his banner (Obama for gustov Victems). Can and will he be able to do this.