Campaign Diaries

With all the excitement surrounding Palin’s pick, I forgot to mention that yesterday was Campaign Diaries‘ first birthday! My first post was devoted to Senate races (ID, LA and SD), and I am particularly proud of having posted every single day of this first year. I am planning to experiment with a “One year ago today” feature on the sidebar (any feedback welcomed!).

As the Palin pick continues to generate more heated discussion on this blog than any story since Clinton’s concession, information continues to come in about the circumstances surrounding it. Particularly shocking is ABC’s report that McCain was leaning towards Lieberman as late as last week-end, and that only on Sunday night did his advisers convince him that he could not afford the conservative rebellion that would undoubtedly follow. ABC adds that only since Sunday did lawyers thoroughly review Palin’s vetting information, and even McCain’s inner circle was kept uninformed. This might seem unlikely, but we already know that McCain had only met Palin once months ago.

This report might be very significant: We know that Palin’s name was in the mix for months, but if it is true that she only got a serious look over the past few days, could the vetting process have been as thorough as it should have been? Were Palin’s potential downsides (troopergate [here is a good rundown of the scandal], Buchanan, her connection with Ted Stevens, her staunchly conservative stances on abortion or creationism) tested as much as the downsides’ of other candidates? And how much evidence does the campaign have that the female vote is truly up for grabs?

Like everything else about Palin’s pick, this could play either way. McCain’s choice could look refreshingly spontaneous, maverick-like. But if the vetting was done too quickly, if advisers were not consulted enough and if something was missed in the process, there is no telling how disastrous the next two months could be. GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska (whose father Palin defeated in 2006) has this to say about troopergate’s potential impact: “We really don’t know. The governor doesn’t know, you know; she sort of started her own investigation, encouraged it. I don’t think any of us really know — I certainly don’t know — that’s still unfolding.” Does the McCain campaign know?

Another incredible storyline behind that report is how quickly conservatives went from one of their nightmare choices to one of their favorites. I understated the significance of this in my first two analyses. McCain has always had problems with his base, and while people like Limbaugh had rallied behind him, they did so reluctantly. But conservative activists, the grassroots whose indifference was massively threatening the GOP’s ground game, seem to be truly fired up. The National Review continues to glow, and Politico’s Martin finds the same phenomenon.

This is not 2004. Democrats can win on the strength of its base, but the GOP has lost too many independents for the base to carry it to victory. Yet, it is unimaginable that McCain could win without strong grassroots enthusiasm and if the Palin pick does nothing more than fire up the base, I believe it would be worth it for McCain. Here again, however, the question arises: Jindal would have gotten the base just as excited, and had a thicker resume.

The enthusiasm the pick has generated is evident in the money flow to McCain’s coffers. He reportedly raised $4.49 million yesterday alone, an impressive sum by his standards. But remember one thing: It is too late for McCain’s fundraising to make much impact. His campaign only has 5 more days to spend whatever money they get. Starting on Thursday, McCain will be restricted to the $84 million he will get from public financing.

Perhaps due to the need to spend whatever money it has left and in particular this last-minute infusion, the McCain campaign has significantly expanded its ad buy to include, for the very first time, two new media markets in North Carolina. Obama had the state’s airwaves for himself since June, and this is the first sign that McCain is taking the threat seriously. He has also bought time in Virginia outside of NOVA, as well as in new markets in Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire. Particularly interesting is that viewers in Omaha (whose market reaches in Western Iowa) will now see McCain’s ads. The Omaha-based district will award one electoral vote, and Obama looks competitive.

We will have to see whether McCain keeps up this expansion starting next Friday. $84 million of public money can do a lot in the space of 2 months, but it cannot fund an effective campaign in as many states as McCain is advertising in right now. If the campaign is worried about NC and wants to keep up its spending there, it will have to cut that from somewhere else.

Beyond conservatives, an important question is Palin’s impact among independents. Gallup points out that independent women are the key constituency that Palin could move, and Rasmussen’s tracking poll from today explains why: The day after Palin’s selection, the electorate’s reaction is positive. 53% of respondents have a favorable impression of her, versus 26%. Predictably, Republicans like her, Democrats do not (including women, among which Palin’s rating is 23%), but look at independents: 63% of them have a favorable impression of Palin, and that figure is 61% among independent women. In other words, independents are reacting to Palin the same way Republicans are.

Palin’s potential, then, could come from her appeal to independent. She could look like a refreshing, maverick face and thus lead voters to have the same impression of McCain. This is the threat the Obama campaign moved to address today in its first post-Palin ad. McCain might have chosen Palin, the ad repeats, but that doesn’t mean he is less beholden to the Bush agenda. The spot takes no hit at Palin (too early?) but uses many pictures of a McCain-Bush embrace. The ad is only running on national cable, so it is meant to influence coverage more than reach voters.

A question: Is the ad acknowledging that Palin is not a Bush Republican? “While this might be his running mate, America knows that this [insert Bush picture] is John McCain’s agenda,” the ad says. While it would be foolish of them to attack Palin as a typical GOPer, Democrat might want to be careful to not paint her as a maverick.

But the biggest “huh?” of the day belongs to top McCain adviser Charlie Black’s statement in the New York Times:

She’s going to learn national security at the foot of the master for the next four years, and most doctors think that he’ll be around at least that long.

I assume this was meant as a joke, but I am not sure it comes across as one given that this is a very real concern Democrats are hinting at and that voters are sure to think about. It seems that Republicans are just as unprepared as Hutchinson and as Democrats to respond to the Palin pick.

And someone might want to tell the Alaska GOP to sound a bit more enthusiastic, however much they dislike Palin. Sen. Stevens sounds enthusiastic but not many other GOPers. The Republican House Speaker said: “She’s old enough. She’s a U.S. citizen.” Added the Republican state Senate President: “She’s not prepared to be governor. How can she be prepared to be vice president or president? Look at what she’s done to this state. What would she do to the nation?” Though considering the heat Palin received a few months ago when she giggled as a radio host called Green a bitch and cancer, it might not be all that surprising.

Update: There is nothing scientific about the New York Times interviewing dozens of undecided women nationwide, but this article is still worth a read. The newspaper is finding varying reactions to the Palin pick - in fact, as many as is possible: Republican-leaning women who feel more comfortable about McCain, Republican-leaning women who now worry about experience, Clinton supporters who are put off by her abortion stance, independents who worry that this is a token choice, etc.