For the past month, Obama and McCain’s advertisement campaigns have been relying on different strategies. On the one hand, the McCain campaign has released a series of ads that hammer the same “dangerously unprepared celebrity” theme. These ads use similar graphics, the same brown background, that same creepy female voice. They are not specific to a region or to a demographic because they attack Obama’s character and qualifications, the goal being to shape the campaign’s coverage by putting the spotlight on Obama and planting one overarching worry in voters’ mind - that he is not “ready to lead.”
While the Obama campaign has also been pushing an overarching theme (McCain=Bush=awful economy) nationally, it has also unleashed a wave of issue-specific and state-specific attacks. They have often not released those spots to the media, ensuring that the GOP’s response is delayed. That has often given us the impression that the Obama campaign was pulling punches, but they have been on the offensive in Ohio over DHL, Georgia over Ralph Reed, Nevada over Yucca Mountain.
Now, the GOP is facing a big problem. Its summer attacks had been remarkably successful in putting Obama on the defensive and tightening the race. Republicans had been laying the ground for mounting attacks on Obama’s experience, and they had just recently added the word “dangerously” in front of the “not ready to lead” slogan. But Sarah Palin’s pick directly contradicts that one overarching theme that the McCain campaign has been pushing so hard. Voters might judge Palin’s experience-level to be adequate, but can the GOP continue pushing Obama’s inexperience as an argument? If not, what happens to all that summer groundwork? The New York Times reports that this could become a problem next week as the convention had been designed to focus on Obama’s readiness level:
Republican organizers said the convention aides in charge of reviewing every speech delivered from the lectern are now on the watch for blunt attacks on Mr. Obama’s readiness to lead, and reviewing how much to emphasize what had been the convention theme: “Not Ready ’08.” They are aware that such criticism in a high-profile setting would provide an opportunity for Democrats to make the same charge against Ms. Palin. …
“We’ve been told for the last few months that experience is what matters most in the next White House,” said John Scates, a delegate from St. Louis. “But McCain is picking someone whose experience is little to nothing or, at best, unknown.
The convention was meant to make the case against Obama, and the GOP really needs to make him look unacceptable. How will they do so now, and is it not too late to introduce an entirely new narrative now? The McCain campaign had two choices to go with: (1) Obama is all-fame no-substance, (2) Obama is a dangerous radical. Most of McCain’s ads have been pushing the first narrative, but groups on the periphery (state Republican parties, AIE) have been playing with the second. Will McCain now turn to the second as well, and how long before Wright is invoked in Republican ads? Is it too late to make this happen for next week’s convention?
Meanwhile, Obama looks to be continuing its strategy of state and issue-specific ads. Just today the campaign unveiled two separate spots. The first is devoted to the economy and will air in Michigan. It accuses McCain of opposing government help to automakers and having voted to give tax cuts to companies that ship job oversees. A similar message could be used in other states, but Michigan is of course particularly hit by the auto-industry crisis and the economic downturn in general.
The second ad, narrated by Joe Biden, touts his Scranton roots and describes Obama’s roots as similar to his. Biden, who represents Delaware, calls Scranton “home,” an obvious play for Pennsylvania. And not only is this ad state-specific, but it is region-specific as well: it will only air in Northeastern Pennsylvania!
The Obama campaign will surely monitor the reception of that Scranton ad, as well as the success of the convention’s pushing the narrative of Obama as the embodiment of the American Dream. If blue-collar voters are feeling reassured, similar ads should be seen throughout Pennsylvania and Biden should be dispatched to blue-collar areas in states like Ohio, North Carolina.
Michigan and Pennsylvania are two must-win states for the Obama campaign. They were both won by Gore and Kerry and it is difficult to envision Obama winning the White House while losing either of these. Democrats seem like they intend to treat Pennsylvania as Biden’s home state, but some Republicans think Palin will play well in both of these states by appealing to Pennsylvania’s suburban women and by exciting the Michigan and Western Pennsylvania social conservatives.
There could be more localized advertisement to come. That same New York Times article reports that the Obama campaign feels it needs to attack McCain on abortion and pay equity and make a more explicit push for the undecided female vote. (Those issues have not been a focus of the campaign so far.) Odds are Obama would not air ads warning that McCain would threaten Roe v. Wade nationally nor in entire states. The suburbs of Philadelphia, for instance, would be a good area to hit McCain and Palin on abortion, as the GOP’s pro-life platform has long hurt the party’s outreach among female in that region. More generally, pointing out that Palin is to the right of McCain on abortion and perhaps talking more about judges will be key for Obama to hold on to Hillary supporters.
I agree that it may be too late to have a new narrative for the GOP attacks. The GOP in past elections have been very good at picking one topic and using it for months and months.
I think attacks on Obama will be less because the McCain campaign have to defend the selection and process of choosing Palin. Also Hurricane Gustaf may well seriously effect thewir convetnion and provide a major competing news event. The Dems had the luck of timing (as well as a good convention). Palin’s speech could easily be overshadowed by the Hurricane. The only night unaffected will be the Bush/Cheney night!
Also how will it look for them to continually attack Obama or be confrontational in their convention with a Hhurricane happening at the same time?
Guy, reports right now is that all of the major speakers for Monday night will skip the covention. Bush and Cheney won’t be there because they want to monitor the storm, and Schwarzenegger won’t attend because the Calfornia budget has yet to be passed. It’s also possible that parts or even the whole convention can be canceled because of Gustav, understandable considering the political risks of having it go on as well as the fact that many delegates and other attendies have familes who could be in grave danger thanks to the storm. While it is probably inappropriate to be talking about who this storm benefits politically, the fact remains that a canceled or curtailed convention will benefit the Democrats because there will be no event to help counter Obama’s bounce in the polls. The unveiling of Palin undoubtly helped but a covention would have done so much more.
It is also obvious that Palin’s most immediant benefit to McCain is in firing up the base. It is already clear that Republicans were willing to vote McCain but they were far from considering to volunteer. Palin’s choice alone has probably eliminated the etnthusiam gap between Democrats and Republicans. However, this doesn’t change the fact that there are still more Democrats than Republicans, but a large margin, and that while conservative, blue collar white Democrats may be attracted by Palin’s cultural views, they may be turned off by her very right wing economic views (I mean even if they are socially conservative they are still Democrats after all). In addition, one of Palin’s main goals, which is to take away Hillary voters, may not come to pass becuase of Palins very strong anti-abortion views. It may even hurt the GOP in trying to go after subburn women independents. While abortion may not be as important to them as it is to women Democrats, it can still be a turnoff. We have to see how the developments (especially Hurricane Gustav and possibly another hurricane that could hit Florida in a few weeks) affect the political race.
Teezy - I saw a picture of an old white man asleep during the day, I thought it was McCain but it wasn`t - stop the cheap and irrelevant shots.
Jaxx - I completely agree any disruption or reduced media coverage to the GOP convention will aid Dems. The assumption the past few weeks has been that the GOP would spend 4 days attacking Obama (much as in 2004 they spent 4 days attacking Kerry). Looks like that will not happen now - advatange to Obama.
I wouldn`t say Palin has eliminated the enthusiasm gap completely. Sher has definitely helped but you don`t overcome the huge gap that exists by one pick. Obama/Biden were in Dublin Ohio yesterday and 19000 turned up (not bussed in from out of state) - McCain could barely manage 10000 when Palin was announced. Still some gap.
The above comment was not written by me. It was obvioulsy written by the same person that was also commenting with my previous name “TJ”.
Posing as another commenter is petty and stupid, though I guess I should expect such behavior from the pro-Obama trolls.
Taniel, it’s unfortunate that as one of maybe two voices of opposition that comments on this site, a liberal troll(s) has been using my old name and now new name to make insulting statements. I’ve seen other commenters repeatedly declare that this site is for serious discussion, but if ideas are not challenged, then it isn’t really discussion. Just echoes.
Can you please address this copycat problem, Taniel? How about allow us to register names so the trolls cannot duplicate them?
Teezy,
I can see the IP addresses and that comment was indeed not written by you. I have blacklisted the IP address of the person who wrote that comment, and will keep a close eye on any comments written by “Teezy” to make sure it is from you.