Campaign Diaries

Who knew we would be talking about Alaska this much this year?

Not only is Barack Obama seriously contesting this red state (and was even leading in the most recent poll) but the state’s Senate and House races are among the year’s most chaotic. And just as the Senate race found some order with Ted Stevens winning his party’s nomination on Tuesday, the House contest has sank into complete confusion. All of this, of course, has Democrats salivating.

The House primary was held on Tuesday and it pitted two high-profile Republicans: incumbent Republican Don Young and Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell. Among the many narratives hidden behind that headline was the Club for Growth’s influence, Sarah Palin’s takeover of the state party, a generational battle and corruption scandals. But two days after the voting, we still don’t know who won. With all precincts but a 63-person village reporting, Young is ahead by 152 votes (0.16%).

But there is much more. In fact, there are thousands of absentee ballots and thousands of provisional ballots that are yet to be counted! It seems that only half of the 7600 absentee ballots that arrived by Election Day have been counted, and officials say that as many as 8,000 more can still come in (a ballot has to be postmarked by Election Day, and can come in within 10 days of the Election)! Furthermore, officials are saying that there are at least 5,000 “questioned” ballots which will have to be reviewed - and perhaps be counted if they were disqualified or disqualified if they were counted. And then there is the small matter of two towns that ran out of ballots, forcing voters to use sample ballots that have yet to be counted (257 total).

In other words, Young’s 152-vote lead doesn’t look like much with thousands of ballots still to be counted. You would think that under these circumstances, election officials would hurry to get an exact count. This is a primary, after all, not a general election. But absentee ballots will not start being counted until September 5th (which is the deadline at which absentee ballots have to be in), provisional ballots until September 8th and any dispute could drag on until September 17th when the winner should be certified!

It is really beyond me why they can’t speed the process out - at least count all the absentee/questionable ballots that are already in before September 5th - but the result is that Alaska Republicans will not know who their candidate is for two more weeks. And if the winner is within half-a point, he will be able to ask for a recount - further delaying the primary’s resolution. At the end of the day, Parnell or Young will have far less than two months to campaign in the general election and unify the part. And they are wasting their most precious weeks: starting in late September, Alaska papers will cover the Stevens trial, making it harder for other political stories to break through.

Democratic candidate Ethan Berkowitz a clear head-start and the state GOP will likely remain divided all the way to the election. The DCCC and the Berkowitz campaign are of course hoping for Young to prevail, but they also have got to feel better about their chances against Parnell at this point.

As for the Senate race, the picture is getting much clearer. Ted Stevens’ nomination on Tuesday still left the question mark of whether state Republicans would manage to convince him to drop out and replace him with a candidate who isn’t facing a corruption trial in the month before the election! Over the past month, Stevens had shown no sign that he would ever agree to give up his seat, and this combative interview in the Anchorage Daily News should remove any doubt:

Q. You’ve appeared very relaxed in light of what’s going on … you won’t even entertain the option of stepping down?

A. You guys always ask that question. Lets put that down. That will never happen, ever.

I am not stepping down. I am going to run through, I’m going to win this election. The election is my goal right now. The court case going to go on. Whether it’s finished or not, I’m still going to run for re-election.

Stevens’ main argument will be to dismiss Begich as too liberal for the state, saying that the state’s Republican voters “are certainly not going to support someone who supports Sen. Obama.” But Stevens will have a hard time with that argument considering Obama is looking much stronger than anyone anticipated and that he will spend the last weeks of his campaign in Washington instead of campaigning.

Reassured that the general election will indeed oppose Ted Stevens to Mark Begich, Democrats surely feel much better about their chances to score a pick-up here. Now, they have to wait hoping that Don Young joins them on the general election ballot.