Campaign Diaries

[Updated with lots and lots of late afternoon polls] It will take a few days to determine what impact if any the Democratic convention and Hillary’s speech has on her supporters - and it’s questionable whether we’ll ever have a clear answer given that this convention will immediately lead into the GOP veepstakes and the Republican convention, muddying any polling that will be done over the next ten days. But these surveys give us a clearer idea of the state of the race prior to this two week craziness, as all but the two trackings were taken before the start of the convention.

In particular, CNN just released a wave of polls from four key swing state. That means that today’s poll roundup includes a poll from each of the Big Three and a poll from each of the three Western battlegrounds! Quite a treat:

• In Florida (polling history), Strategic Vision shows McCain up 49% to 42%; the institute’s prior poll had McCain leading by 8% in July, so the trend line isn’t as worrisome for Obama as the raw numbers.

• Late update: In another poll from Florida, this one conducted by Mason Dixon, Obama gets 45% to McCain’s 44%. Obama gets 74% of Democrats, McCain 78% of Republicans. Important note: the poll was conducted on the 25th and the 26th - meaning voters were contacted after the first night of the convention.

• In Ohio (polling history), Akron University has the race tied at 40%. The survey was taken entirely before Hillary’s speech, and it has Obama at a shocking 45% among Clinton voters. 29% support McCain - but he is still tied. As I have been saying for months, if Obama finally solidifies his base and captures registered Democrats, he would be nearly unbeatable.

• In Pennsylvania (polling history), that CNN poll has Obama leading 48% to 43%. As with the three other CNN polls, this was taken after Obama announced he was picking Biden.

• In New Mexico (polling history), CNN finds Obama crushing McCain with his biggest lead yet - 53% to 40%.

• In Nevada, CNN has Obama leading 49% to 44%.

• The race is much closer in Colorado (polling history), with CNN showing McCain at 47% and Obama at 46%. This is the only one of the four states that has a lead within the margin of error.

• And in Rhode Island, a poll by Brown University has Obama leading 51% to 30%.

• Two SUSA polls tested the Obama-McCain race in congressional districts as part of House polls (see below for the congressional numbers). In CO-04, a district Bush won by 17%, McCain only leads by 2%. In PA-10, a district Bush won by 20%, McCain only leads by 9%. If Obama keeps up these margins he could do great in both PA and CO on November 4th.

• Now national polls: Today’s tracking numbers have trend lines in opposite directions but agree that it is as tight as can be: Rasmussen has McCain gaining a point and leading 47% to 46% while Gallup has Obama gaining 3% and erase the 2% lead McCain had yesterday.

• And finally, a national poll released by Hotline has Obama leading 44% to 40%. It was conducted through the entirety of last week.

CNN’s Western polls are diametrically opposed to those Mason Dixon released over the week-end. The Mason Dixon surveys showed Obama leading in Colorado, while McCain was up in New Mexico and Nevada. But only in NV did we see a lead outside of the MoE. The CO numbers are perfectly compatible and the tightness is confirmed by nearly all recent polling data from the state (that is a disappointment for Obama who led in every single poll in that state until July 24th).

As for NM, it is worth pointing out that Mason Dixon’s numbers were somewhat surprising since most polls released from the state (and I admit they have been rare) have shown Obama leading. If CNN’s poll is anywhere close to right, that would have major consequences on the electoral map: Combined with Kerry states and with Iowa - which is clearly leaning in Obama’s direction - NM would put Obama at 264 electoral votes, 5 away from a tie.

As for the Big Three, these polls confirm what we already know: PA leans left, FL leans right and OH stays in the middle - though Obama would clearly receive a huge boost if he improves his share of Clinton voters. But a closer look at Florida is in order. Strategic Vision’s July poll came at a time most of the state’s surveys showed Obama gaining, but this month’s release is only slightly more Republican than the current average: the seven other FL polls that had been released in August until today all show McCain leading. It is hard to find a state with a clearer trendline over the past few weeks. That said, the Mason Dixon survey makes things more confusing (it is the first poll since the late July Quinnipiac to show Obama with any sort of lead).

Strategic Vision is in line with other surveys, but Mason Dixon is a more reliable polling outlet. If you average the two polls (which is not a very rigorous procedure), it gives McCain a narrow lead - which is pretty much what other polls are showing.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

• In the North Carolina gubernatorial race, PPP finds Beverly Perdue up 42% to 37%. That’s down from the 9% lead she enjoyed in July, but it is in line with what most polls have been showing.

• In PA-10, Rep. Chris Carney narrowly leads against Republican challenger Chris Hackett 49% to 45%. Carney has stronger support among Democrats and leads among independents - but the district’s Republican lean keeps the election tight.

• IN CO-04, Rep. Musgrave trails Democratic challenger Betsy Markey 50% to 43% in a SUSA poll. Markey crushes Musgrove 59% to 29% among independents!

Both of these House races are rated toss-ups in my latest House ratings. Late 2006, PA-10 was among the seats the GOP was confident were lost in an anomaly and would be conquered back in 2008. Carney won largely based on the incumbent’s ethical problems with his mistress (who accused him of having choked her) and PA-10 remains a conservative district, meaning that Carney’s will have to swim against the presidential currents in his first re-election race. The poll shows that Republicans were right and Carney is very vulnerable - as is any incumbent with such a small lead and under 50%. Hackett is wealthy and will have enough money to contest this race.

But if Carney is in danger, what to say about Musgrave. The controversial and very conservative Colorado congresswoman has consistently under-performed in this Republican-leaning district. Now, McCain himself is underperforming, pointing to a fundamental shift in the district that might make it very difficult for Musgrave to win re-election. For any incumbent to poll at 43% is worrisome, and even more so for one that has a history of electoral vulnerability.