Comments on: Morning polling: Hagan takes lead in NC (!), Obama weak with Clinton voters, McCain gains in FL

By: Guy

Guy — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 12:22:53 +0000

Taniel - thanks for covering the NC senate race. As I said previously a candidate who lives by ads (to pump up her %) will die by the ads - Dole is that candidate. This race will move up the rankings because you have an incumbent at 40%. In OR and MN that is not the case so it will be harder to win.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 22:05:34 +0000

And Ogre Mage, Hillary’s influence over her supporters may be limited but it is very significant. She needs to completely ‘dimish herself ‘ ( i.e no more talk of her 18 million voters or catarrhsis or her opinion for VP was not sought, etcetc) and talk up Obama more and more and then some more, in order for those holding out to finally get it. She has not done this yet. I mean look at Mitt Romney’s open support for Mccain and compare that with her’s.
See what I mean?

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 21:58:40 +0000

Exactly my point Jaxx Raxor. Democrats will have to put Obama in the White House and he needs about the percentage to get it.

By: Ogre Mage

Ogre Mage — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 19:59:14 +0000

Obama’s decision to not put Clinton on the ticket was stupid from an electoral standpoint. In this political environment, we should be winning this race easily and we’re not.

Sending out Hillary and Bill to try and woo over her supporters can help, but it really is Obama who needs to get in front of them and persuade them himself. He has chosen to put Hillary in a peripheral position which will limit her influence.

By: Jaxx Raxor

Jaxx Raxor — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 19:47:58 +0000

Actually Tom B, in order to win Obama just needs to win 85%+ of the Democrats and maintain parity with McCain among Democrats in order to win. He doesn’t need to win an overwhelming majority of Independents or a big share of Republicans to win because there are more Democrats now than Republicans or independents. That is why appealing to Clinton voters is much more important for Obama than appealing to true independent voters who are not sure of which party to vote for.

By: Jim W

Jim W — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 19:44:54 +0000

I too originally supported Clinton, but have since changed my allegiance to Obama.

I feel confident that Hillary will give a great speech in support of Obama. My main concern is with Bill Clinton. From what I can tell, President Clinton feels somewhat snubbed that Obama has not given him enough credit for his tenure as President. I may be wrong, but I still believe that Bill Clinton’s support will be the crucial ingredient to Obama’s prospects in November.

By: Tom B

Tom B — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 19:40:29 +0000

OK. That’s understandable but highly improbable. First, Obama will only win if he can capture the majority of the Democratic vote AND significant segments of independents & GOP voters. Similarly, if Obama succeeds at capturing large African-American votes, he will still need 20-30 percent of the white vote to win the presidency.

Regarding the party dissenters: yes, it is logical to come together. I supported Clinton, but will gladly vote for Obama. However, the situation is beyond anyone’s control. Imagine if Obama had failed in capturing the nomination and suppose, tee-vee personalities had claimed that he only got to be where he is because of Affirmative Action or some other falsehood. You can imagine that many black voters would re-consider casting their vote for the Dem. So, who knows? If Clinton gives the speech of a lifetime tonight, it will hopefully go far at bridging the gap.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 17:49:20 +0000

Agreed about Clinton voters. I think that is the reason that the tracking is tied or Obama losing support. But what I don’t understand is why people are so fickle in their preferences. I mean the where with Obama and the next thing, they jump to Mcain because Clinton was not chosen?!! It would be more rational to withhold support rather than jump to the opposing side. Doesn’t make any sense to me. Like I’ve always known, it’s up to Obama’s fellow democrats to decide if they want to win this election. ( see Begala and Carville formenting disent on CNN. That is NOT helpful at all to their candidate and again doesn’t make any sense to me.)
Obama has been a good candidate. It’s up to the democrats to put him in the white house - not republicans or independents.

By: mikeel

mikeel — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 17:06:08 +0000

McCain is ahead in the Gallup tracker for the first time since June 4.

Two causes: Biden pick has angered some Clinton supporters, but I think this is part of a slow decline that means McCain will win by a large margin. Whether this helps Republicans downballot is hard to say right now.

I’ll be watching for Democratic candidates running away from Obama.

By: Jim W

Jim W — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 15:49:07 +0000

The ad against Liddy has proven to be very effective. I’ve heard from some of the older generation that they too have been disappointed with Liddy’s record in Washington. The ad points out that Liddy is 93rd in the senate in regards to effectiveness, and votes 92% of the time with Bush.

Kay Hagen should still consider herself the underdog. The attack ads against her hasn’t started yet. She should remember what the GOP did in 1998 against Edwards when they attacked him giving advise to a group regarding trial law.

NC statewide races can get very nasty.