Campaign Diaries

A few months ago, Democrats were worried that the Clinton-Obama primary was heading towards a brokered convention: neither candidate would get a decisive edge after June 3rd, leading them hitting each other throughout the summer. Of course, Clinton fell too far behind to entertain hopes of staying in the race past June 3rd. The two organized a joint appearance in Unity, New Hampshire in late June and Hillary started going on the stump for Barack in New Mexico, Florida over the past two weeks.

But PUMAs continued to make noise, the press always manages to find a few Clinton supporters willing to bash Obama and the issue of Clinton’s debt and the dispute over whether to hold a roll call at the convention were not being resolved. It was always difficult to distinguish how much of these reports were exaggerated and how much they pointed to a truly continuing tension between the Clintons and Obama. But in politics, perception matters more than reality, and all these reports did nothing to unite the Democratic Party at a time Obama needed to solidify his base.

Now we are on the eve of the Democratic convention, and all evidence points to the fact that Obama did not succeed in uniting the base whatsoever - if anything, recent national polls have found him winning a smaller share of the Clinton vote. Last week, an NBC poll found Obama losing ground nationally and winning the support of only 52% of Clinton supporters - meaning that a huge 11% of the sample was made up of Clinton supporters who were not supporting him. Over the week-end, new national polls and a state poll from Ohio confirmed NBC’s finding that Obama will not capture a comfortable lead unless he closes the deal with these Clinton supporters:

• A USA Today-Gallup poll has Obama leading 47% to 43% among registered voters, 47% to 44% among likely voters. You might remember that last month’s Gallup poll was the first since early May to have McCain leading (by 4% among likely voters). But while 70% of Clinton supporters back Obama, only 47% do so solidly and 30% back McCain or plan to not vote (that’s too high a number). Among other findings: 57% are worried about Obama’s experience, respondents blame McCain more for the campaign’s negative tone.

• In a new CNN poll, the first taken after the Biden pick, Obama has lost a 7% lead and is now down to a tie at 7%. Some of that evolution is accounted by Obama’s fall among Clinton supporters: It’s gone from 75% Obama-16% McCain in late June to 66% Obama-27% McCain. That’s a dramatic turn-around.

• As far as I can tell, the week-end’s third national poll (a Washington Post-ABC poll that had Obama leading 49% to 45%, 48% to 42% when Barr and Nader were included and both got 3%) did not include information about the behavior of Clinton supporters.

• An Ohio poll released this morning by the Columbus Dispatch finds McCain up 1% - a result that comes from his good numbers among Democrats (Obama leads among independents). Obama only wins half of voters who voted for Clinton on March 4th. We will come back to this poll in the roundup later today.

As the reality that Hillary will not be the VP sets in, some Clinton supporters who were on board might temporarily withhold their support from Obama. That might explain why CNN’s poll (taken after Biden’s pick was announced) finds such a drop in the support Obama receives. How temporary those tensions are will be crucial to determining the results of the November election - and things appear to be getting worse.

The convention was meant to showcase the reconciliation between Obama and the Clintons. But Politico now reports that the negotiations between the Obama and Clinton worlds over the past few days has taken a bad turn. Associates of the two camps are voicing bitter complaints about the other’s sense of entitlement. A big sticking point appears to be Bill Clinton’s speech: He is speaking on Wednesday night, devoted to national security, but he was hoping to speak about the economy, highlighting the successes of the 1990s versus the failures of the past 8 years. Obama’s camp has insisted that he sticks to his topic.

In the context of Obama’s criticism of the Clinton years during the primary, that alone should be enough to flare up tensions. And to me it does seem inexplicable that Clinton was instructed to not go into economic issues since those are his forte - and his tenure is first and foremost remembered by the electorate (especially the blue-collar Democrats Obama needs to appeal to) as one of prosperity.

Then, there was the vice-presidential pick. Reports late last Thursday that Clinton was not being vetted led to both sides being angry - but reports had said the same exact thing in late July! We already knew that Clinton was not being vetted weeks ago, so the fact that it became such a huge story in the closing days of the veepstakes testifies to how any story involving Hillary will be drummed up and how those Clinton supporters who are looking to get upset will probably find a motive to do so no matter what.

Politico isn’t the only outlet to be focusing in on these intensifying tensions. The New York Times has a piece about doubts among Clinton delegates and Marc Ambinder, who usually urges caution about reports that the two camps are fighting, is reporting that he is hearing the same things.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: The Clinton-Obama story will be the most crucial part of this week’s convention. With a base secured and a much greater number of Clinton supporters on board, Obama will have a big lead that McCain will have trouble contesting. But it is far from a sure thing that he will get such a united base. After all, Clinton’s concession in June does not seem to have moved numbers much. And if anything goes wrong in the staging of Clinton-Obama moments, the road would become much more difficult for Obama. Remember in 1980, when Jimmy Carter chased Teddy Kennedy around the stage in a vain effort to get him to shake his hands.

The Obama campaign now has to push back on Politico’s report. The week is not starting off well for Democrats worried about Clinton-Obama relationship. Everything will have to go perfectly well to avoid the press seizing on small moments here and there. We will watch Hillary and Bill’s speeches and the roll-call very carefully to observe what is susceptible of finally bringing Clinton supporters back to the Democratic camp.