It seems somewhat sacrilegious to return to polls after the excitement of the past 24 hours, but here is a roundup of the last two days of polling news. Before going on to state polls, let’s take a look to the state of the tracking polls, as today’s delivery of Rasmussen and Gallup will be the last taken entirely before Biden’s pick and the two week extravaganza that will be the conventions. Obama’s 2% lead in both Rasmussen and Gallup will be used as a marker for whatever bounce they receive - especially because both trackings have been hovering around those numbers for weeks now, with incredible stability.
Meanwhile, in state numbers:
- In Indiana, the first Rasmussen poll finds McCain leading but by a narrow margin, 46% to 42% (49% to 43% with leaners). That’s the same margin as the recent SUSA poll. McCain’s favorability rating is much stronger - 65% to 52%.
- In California, Obama is ahead in the Rasmussen poll, 51% to 37%, 54% to 41% with leaners.
- In Tennessee, McCain leads 56% to 32% in a Rasmussen poll, a 9% improvement since June. Obama’s favorability rating is disastrous: 39%, with 60% unfavorable!
- In Mississippi, the numbers are stable since July, with McCain leading 54% to 41% (56% to 43% with leaners). Take a look at this racial polarization: Obama only gets 13% of the white vote, 97% of the black vote! The racial gap is a stunning 166%…
The two interesting states of the list, of course, are Indiana and Mississippi. The former is one of the red states that the Obama campaign has been advertising in, and over the past 3 months we had only gotten two SUSA polls from it. One (in June) showed Obama leading by 1%; the other, released this week, had McCain leading by 6%. That SUSA now confirms that this race is in the mid single-digits means that we have enough confirmation to start taking the possibility of Indiana having become a truly competitive state more seriously. As of the beginning of this year, that would have seem like an insane proposition (Bush did win the state by more than 20%) and the extended primary season clearly made Democrats more enthused in this state.
Mississippi, on the other hand, seems to be anchoring itself in the safe McCain column. Remember that some Democrats did talk about this state at the beginning of the summer, lumping it with Southern states like North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia. They argued that Obama would boost black turnout enough to put them in the competitive column. That argument never fully made sense in Mississippi (the state is rated safe McCain in my ratings), where Democrats start with a huge deficit and where the vote is so racially polarized that Obama would need to make significant inroads among white voters to overcome Bush’s 20% margin.
Kerry got 14% of the white vote there (!), as much as Bush did nationally among the black vote, and are we really to believe that a black candidate could do much better than that? There no evidence that Obama will succeed in appealing to Southern whites, but consider that his favorability rating among Mississippi whites in this poll is a shocking 18%!
Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:
- In the Mississippi Senate race (polling history), Rocker Wicker maintains his large lead over Musgrove in Rasmussen’s poll. He leads 47% to 42%, 52% to 43%. Both have a favorable rating above 50% - though Wicker’s is a bit higher. The racial gap is smaller than in the presidential race: Musgrove only gets 83% of the black vote, manages to get 22% of whites.
- In NV-02, a Research 2000 poll finds Rep. Dean Heller leading Jill Derby 47% to 42%.
- In AL-03, a Capital Survey Research Center poll shows Rep. Rogers handily beating his Democratic challenger Joshua Segall, 54% to 33%.
Rasmussen’s numbers from MS-Sen are undoubtedly worrisome news for Democrats and a boost to GOP morale. Republicans were hoping that Wicker would get a boost as the electorate becomes more polarized (especially due to the conjunction with the presidential race). Musgrove will not have a “D” next to his name, which could help him escape Obama’s drag and perform better among white voters (though it could also reduce his total among black voters). This is the same margin as last month’s Rasmussen numbers, but previous Rasmussen polls (and all other surveys from this state) had found a toss-up. It will be interesting to see what other surveys have to say, but we had always known that Musgrove would be better off if this special election had been held in March as it should have been.
The two House races are interesting as well, as they both come from the list of third-tier races that my latest House ratings pointed out will be particularly fun to follow over the next few weeks: AL-03 is actually not that dominant a Republican district, much less, in any case than AL-02. Democrats have been touting Joshua Segall, but this poll clearly suggests he will have a lot of work to do over the next few months. NV-02 looks like it will be a better option for Democrats to contest: This is also a district Bush won convincingly; but Heller won the election with a much narrower margin than he ought to have in 2006, and that was already against Jill Derby. Since then, Democrats have had registration gains in the state and in this district, and while the seat still clearly leans retention, Derby has a clear shot.
It will be intersting to see how much the polls in these states changes once we know who McCain’s VP pick is. Obama was foolish to believe that he could win in Missisipi primarly on Black turnout. Yes, blacks are around 37% of the population, more than any other states, but that means that they are not a majority, and whites are almost as uniformly Republican in this state as Blacks are for Democrats in MS as well as the rest of the country.
The MS Senate race in a way is dissapointing for Democrats, as a race that used to be toss-up is now clearly becoming a GOP lean seat. There is some good news for Musgrove, in that he doesn’t need to get more than 22% of the white vote. All he needs to do is dramtically increse his share of the black vote to about 93% or more and he will have enough to win in the state. The problem is that as Taniel said, parties will not be identified, which may lead Blacks not to vote for Musgrove out of unfamiliarity about him. In additon, any real move to get more black support would invariably involved Barack Obama, which could very well hurt Musgrove with conservative whites. Remember that unlike Obama, Musgrove is a very conservative Democratic in the mold of the two Conservative Democrats in the MS House Delegation, Gene Taylor (perhaps the MOST conservative Democrat in the house) and new Rep. Travis Childers. Of course, Mike Moore, the attorney general, would have been a superior choice if he had run. Musgroves biggest problem is that he lost his reelection bid to the current MS governor, which weakens his luster somewhat. He probably would have won the seat had a special election taken place in March, as in that case the Democrats would be spending heavily in order to help him in a low turnout election. That the special election is the same as the General election is probably just enough for Wicker to stay in.
“The MS Senate race in a way is dissapointing for Democrats”
Let me see, a Democrat hasn’t won this seat in 30 years, and this is a disapointment (notice I know how to spell).
Wicker had this race won the moment he was picked to replace Lott.
We get the point TJ, you know how to spell. Probably a proud product of good public education, or you just used the spell checking function in MS word. But outside of the cheap shot, Raxor has a point. Musgrove is a former governor, with a lot a name recognition, on a year that is trending Democrat, in a state that has shown that will vote for a Democrat under the right conditions. Being a smart ass is not a substitute for clear thinking TJ!
Robert_V,
Like talking about history, eh? Musgrove had his head handed to him by good ole Haley. Musgrove, just like you, is a loser.
Not to jump into the “heated” debate on items that aren’t necessarily about politics, but…
If anyone told me that we (Democrats) would have a shot at a Senate seat in Mississippi during an election year where there was a presidential campaign (MS is solid GOP) and that Thad Cochran was running for re-election, I would have laughed in their face after falling on the floor crying. The fact that this is in single digits and that some polls have it witin the margin of error is amazing. The fact that there is no party affiliation and that Musgrove has been on a state-wide ballot (and won once) before may help him.
For anyone who had this race as a “toss-up” I think was just too optimistic, and you may feel “let down” now given where it really is, a Leans GOP race where the GOP and Wicker have an advantage.
It seems somewhat sacrilegious to return to polls after the excitement of the past 24 hours, but here is a roundup of the last two days of polling news.
This line makes me think of the McCain ad “The One”
Ouch, must have touched a tender spot in good ole TJ!!! But I am not wasting my time with ad hominem attacks.
In a couple of weeks, when the conventions are finished and Obama and McCain are finished exchanging blows, bounces, and leads, we will see where the race stands. I think Obama is wasting his time in Indiana. As a matter of fact I think his campaign has started to believe all the baloney they put out when they were running against Hillary about being able to compete in the deep red states. For all the hoopla, this election will not be much different from 2000 and 2004. Barack will not carry Montana, or Alaska, or Indiana, or North Carolina, and certainly not Virginia. It is significant to point out that Obama is running almost 25 points behind Mark Warner, the senate candidate. Get excited about Indiana if it is close in October. The GOP slime machine is just about to go in high gear. Just watch Obama morph into Michael Dukakis. Old Mac will take this race easier than I thought he would.
It looks like I’m going to have to step in again? TJ, I’m glad you read this blog and are moved to comment, but please refrain from completely uncalled for insults like “Musgrove, just like you, is a loser.” It cheapens the entire conversation on this website. Consider this a warning, because I’m going to start using my “delete comment” option for any comment like that.
Robert V - why are you so certain Obama will not win Virginia. Of the states you list Virginia is the most likely to Democratic (of current polling plus looking at 2004 results)
Excuse me, but someone else is using my name to comment here. I am the TJ that has been posting here the last few weeks and I don’t know who this other person is or if they already knew this name was in use.
To the new “TJ”,
Could you please pick another name for commenting? Pretty please? :)
Guy - I am being completely un-scientific, just depending on a gut feeling here. Remember in 2004 when for a moment Hawaii seemed to be in play for the GOP, and they sent Chaney to campaign there? The GOP even bought add and all. Come election day, Kerry won in a comfortable fashion. Same with New Jersey, Robert Menendez seemed to be in the ropes. Won by 14! I am a long time resident of VA, and I have seen the state change, becoming more purple. But Obama is not the type of candidate to make the break through at the presidential level. Compared to Warner or Kaine, or Webb, Obama is just to far to the left to get over the hump. As I said, un-scientific, more of a gut feeling.