Campaign Diaries

Throughout the night, various networks and wire services reported that Bill Richardson, then Tim Kaine, then Evan Bayh and then Chris Dodd and Hillary Clinton were told by Barack Obama that they were not his picks. At this point, all of that information appears to be more than just idle speculation, as many media sources have independently confirmed it (in fact, we are already hearing about Bayh’s reaction to the news).

Of the top-tier’s trio, only Joe Biden is left standing and most of the speculation is concentrated on him, quite understandably. He is now the favorite. The media seems to be on the verge of breaking the story before the text message is sent. ABC News reporting that the Secret Service is heading to Joe Biden’s house is as close the press can get without actually saying that Biden is the pick. (If it is Biden, good job Gloria Borger, back on January 12th.)

Yet, the networks are now reporting that the Obama text message will not be sent before tomorrow morning (as early as 4am, notes CNN). It would not be good press for Obama if people who had signed up for his text message hear about his pick before receiving the announcement, particularly after all this week’s hype. It is hard to understand why the Obama campaign is not sending its text message at this point, especially if the choice is Biden.

The Obama campaign must have known that Biden would become the talk of the country and of evening cable shows if he contacted Kaine and Bayh tonight and allowed the information about their not being picked to be leaked. His campaign was fine with that - but then why would they be postponing the text message? Why are they not only not worried about being scooped, but are even actively pushing the media towards scooping them?

Is this a final head-fake? If so, what would be the point? If it’s not, can the Obama campaign ensure that it’s text message goes out before the media manages to confirm that it’s Biden?

Apart from Biden, there remain some people who we know were vetted but about whom there are no reports tonight - Kathleen Sebelius, Jack Reed and Chet Edwards (am I forgetting anyone?). While the news about the secret service does make it probable that Obama has informed Biden that he is the nominee, it is still possible that Obama has picked Sebelius or Edwards. Unlike, of course, there are other contenders whom we haven’t really heard about - a Dick Lugar, perhaps.

The quick take, then: We will all know in a few hours. Anyone but Biden would be considered a big surprise, but there are still many people who have not been ruled out. All in all, good job for the Obama campaign to completely own the day’s news cycle and manage to transform a Friday night into a major political spectacle - but they better make sure they aren’t getting scooped.

Until then, the list of names which have been told they would not be the pick is major news. All these names - especially Kaine and Bayh - were in the top-tier of vice-presidential contenders, names we have been hearing for weeks, names we have been speculating about, reading about, fighting about. So much for the Kaine buzz in late July; and so much for the buzz surrounding Bayh in the last days before the Olympics; and so much for the unity ticket that was making so much more sense over the past week or two than it did in June.

(And while we wait, check out this incredible video from Fox News. I noted yesterday that TV channels including Fox News had refused to air the Ayers ad because they would open themselves up to being sued for slander. But in a segment in which a correspondent was talking about the Rezko ad, Fox News (accidentally?) launched the Ayers ad in front of Rezko’s… and let it run for about 40 seconds. To be fair to the Fox News correspondent, she did seem genuinely confused - “this is not the right ad,” she murmured - but anchor Shep Smith interrupted in what almost appears like a veiled threat: “It was an ad. Come on, give us a break,” to which she responded with a fake-sounding laugh, repeating “it was an ad.” The morale of the story seems to be that when Fox News anchors want to show a video, well, they do.)