Comments on: Down-ballot: Stevens stuck in DC; Landrieu, Shaheen open leads; Hagan ties Dole http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/08/20/down-ballot-stevens-stuck-in-dc-landrieu-shaheen-open-leads-hagan-ties-dole/ Obsessive political analysis Sun, 14 Mar 2010 18:29:00 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Guy http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/08/20/down-ballot-stevens-stuck-in-dc-landrieu-shaheen-open-leads-hagan-ties-dole/comment-page-1/#comment-3241 Guy Thu, 21 Aug 2008 01:15:34 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1845#comment-3241 It is interesting that what was supposed to be the Dems weakest state - LA seems to be at least a likely retainDem. I would have thought the demographic changes caused by Katrina would have hurt Landrieu. Maybe the GOP were too clever recruiting a recent Dem - a real flip-flopper! Nice to see Dole weak again in NC. Her support is weak since it only lifted after some ads in May/June. If you live by ads you can die by ads - as shown by Hagan etal running ads against Dole and her numbers coming down. Her base of support is weak and even though Obama is very unlikely to win NC he will have coattails in so far as reducing the margin of defeat from 12% in 2004 to maybe 6% this year - a net 6% improvement. It is interesting that what was supposed to be the Dems weakest state - LA seems to be at least a likely retainDem. I would have thought the demographic changes caused by Katrina would have hurt Landrieu. Maybe the GOP were too clever recruiting a recent Dem - a real flip-flopper!

Nice to see Dole weak again in NC. Her support is weak since it only lifted after some ads in May/June. If you live by ads you can die by ads - as shown by Hagan etal running ads against Dole and her numbers coming down. Her base of support is weak and even though Obama is very unlikely to win NC he will have coattails in so far as reducing the margin of defeat from 12% in 2004 to maybe 6% this year - a net 6% improvement.

]]> By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/08/20/down-ballot-stevens-stuck-in-dc-landrieu-shaheen-open-leads-hagan-ties-dole/comment-page-1/#comment-3240 Jaxx Raxor Wed, 20 Aug 2008 23:46:53 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1845#comment-3240 If Rassmuessen's poll of the LA race is comfirmed by other polling firms, then it would be a crushing blow to the Republicans, who have hoped to have a chance to take over at least one seat. The fact that Kennedy was once a Democrat is hurting him immensivly with GOP voters, and Landrieu's senority is very important to a state that is still recovering from Hurricane Katrina. I agree with Taniel that her ads riducluing Kennedy are working, or at least they are if other polls comfirm Rasmussen. The New Hampshire race is interesting, as Rasmmussen shows Obama weakening immensily in the state against John McCain, yet Shaheen is strengthening. It may be true that Sunnu is saving all of his money for after labor day, but being in this deep of a whole may not save him. If McCain's cottails can't help him, then its likely that Sunnun can only lessen the margin of a loss, not get (bare) victory. Remember that he only narrowly won in 2002 when Bush and the Republicans in general were very popular. If Rassmuessen’s poll of the LA race is comfirmed by other polling firms, then it would be a crushing blow to the Republicans, who have hoped to have a chance to take over at least one seat. The fact that Kennedy was once a Democrat is hurting him immensivly with GOP voters, and Landrieu’s senority is very important to a state that is still recovering from Hurricane Katrina. I agree with Taniel that her ads riducluing Kennedy are working, or at least they are if other polls comfirm Rasmussen.

The New Hampshire race is interesting, as Rasmmussen shows Obama weakening immensily in the state against John McCain, yet Shaheen is strengthening. It may be true that Sunnu is saving all of his money for after labor day, but being in this deep of a whole may not save him. If McCain’s cottails can’t help him, then its likely that Sunnun can only lessen the margin of a loss, not get (bare) victory. Remember that he only narrowly won in 2002 when Bush and the Republicans in general were very popular.

]]> By: Jim W http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/08/20/down-ballot-stevens-stuck-in-dc-landrieu-shaheen-open-leads-hagan-ties-dole/comment-page-1/#comment-3239 Jim W Wed, 20 Aug 2008 23:23:08 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1845#comment-3239 Taniel, my friend, when are you planning to update your senate rankings? You have done such a great job I'm dying to see where you have everyone placed at this time. Thanks. Taniel, my friend, when are you planning to update your senate rankings? You have done such a great job I’m dying to see where you have everyone placed at this time.

Thanks.

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