Campaign Diaries

We knew that energy would play a big role in the 2008 election, but the extent to which it has dominated the summer’s political conversation is truly remarkable. Not only are have the presidential candidates battled on energy for months now (McCain is visiting an oil rig today and will deliver a speech there!), but it is seemingly all congressional candidates can talk about. On the one side, Democrats have been hitting their opponents for their ties to Big Oil; on the other, the GOP has pounced on Democratic opposition to offshore drilling as if their political survival depended on it (and it very well might).

Three new Senate ads confirm this pattern, and what is fascinating is that they were all released by a different entity - one from the campaign of a candidate (Norm Coleman), one from a national committee (the DSCC) and one from an independent group (MoveOn).

Let’s start with MoveOn’s ad because it is the only one we already have some hard numbers on: The group is investing $500,000 in North Carolina (certainly a significant sum, this is not just an attempt at free media) in an ad that hits both John McCain and Elizabeth Dole:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbvIdKHY-HM"]

As is expected, the ad accuses Republicans of wasting the country’s opportunity to deal with energy issues because of their allegiance to the oil industry - using as evidence the campaign contributions both Dole and McCain have received and their support for “tax breaks” for oil companies. The ad is rather simple, probably too mellow and unlikely to be a conversation-changer; but it could be enough to drive up McCain and Dole’s negatives and Democrats are being forced to play defense on the energy given the GOP’s success at pinning the blame on Dems over the past few months.

MoveOn’s buy also confirms that Democrats are looking intensely in North Carolina’s direction. [Update: Kay Hagan released a new ad of her own today, pledging to "level the playing field"]. As we all know by now, the McCain campaign is not putting money in this state, relying on its conservative bent to carry it to victory. Obama has been putting in significant sums of money, by contrast, and that an outside group has now added $500,000 to their efforts should certainly help him: Democrats are making their anti-McCain argument in a vacuum right now, and that makes this half-a-million that much more powerful.

One candidate who has explicitly complained that oil companies are taxed too highly, meanwhile, is Colorado’s Bob Schaffer in a video taken of him last week. Now, the DSCC has released an that does not use that footage but that recites a whole series of reasons Schaffer is tied to the oil industry:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pE2ax_2yULs"]

This ad is certainly more precise and hard-hitting than MoveOn’s, as Schaffer is labeled an “oil executive” and “Big Oil Bob Schaffer.” Overall, however, the theme is the same, as Democrats are doing what they can to prevent Republicans from building an advantage on this issue. This is a particularly pressing issue in Colorado, as Mark Udall has been in great difficulty over the past few weeks because of his conservationist profile that the GOP has relentlessly attacked. In what confirmed how anxious Democrats have become, Udall organized a press conference last week to reverse his opposition to offshore drilling.

Finally, on to Minnesota, where the defining issue of the Senate race over the past few months has been Al Franken’s character rather than energy. Nonetheless, Norm Coleman’s latest ad is devoted to this issue:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEpFtm7V4BU"]

While the ad uses the usual Republican talking points (the need to reduce the dependence on foreign oil and to increase domestic drilling), it does put more of an emphasis on the environment than your typical GOP ad - nor does it hit Al Franken at all on the drilling issue. This is Minnesota, after all, a state whose electorate is likely to be more sensible to conservationist positions than in other states, so that Coleman is trying to cultivate a moderate, pragmatist profile rather than a confrontational one - at least when it comes to energy.