Campaign Diaries

It is possible that Bobby Bright will be considered the favorite to win the open seat of AL-02 by November 4th - but we should not lose sight of just how much of an upset his victory would represent. This is, after all, a district that voted for Bush with more than 66%. Yet, after the first independent poll of the race showed him leading by 10%, Bright continues to accumulate good news. As the popular mayor of Montgomery, the district’s urban center, he has a strong base in what is AL-02’s population center - but the rest of the district remains so conservative that Montgomery alone cannot carry Bright to victory.

Today, Bright got a major endorsement that will bolster his attempt to blurry the partisan lines in AL-02 and score an unlikely victory for the DCCC (though probably not for progressives): Pat Thomas, the Mayor of Dothan and an official in McCain’s Alabama campaign, endorsed Bright. Dothan is the district’s second biggest city and the seat of Houston County (where Bush won 74% of the vote in 2004).

This is significant not only because mayoral endorsements tend to matter (since mayors tend to have a tightly-knit electoral machine and are close to the grassroots), but also because of the Dothan’s geographical location. It is in the district’s Southeastern corner - far from Montgomery - and, as SSP points out, it is the base of the state Senator whom Jay Love defeated in his quest for the GOP nomination. Republican divisions combined with Bobby Bright’s extremely conservative profile are at the very least paving the way for a Bright victory.

Meanwhile, the DCCC’s continues its focus on PA-11, confirming that Rep. Kanjorski’s bid for a 13th House term has become one of the hotspots of the election. It is only the middle of August, but the DCCC is already airing its second attack ad against Kanjorski’s opponent Lou Barletta:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiWmC9BQMA0"]

“You can’t trust Lou Barletta,” says the ad, pointing out that he misspent funds as Mayor of Hazleton and employing the familiar tactic of associating him with President Bush - the ad highlights Barletta’s support for Bush’s plan to privatize Social Security. Considering that the GOP’s argument against Kanjorski will revolve around the length of time he has spent in Washington, leading him to become a creature of the establishment, we can expect ethics to feature prominently in this race - and so will images of Barletta (and all GOP candidates) with President Bush.

Finally, in OR-05, one of only two open seats that the GOP had hoped to wrestle away from Democrats this year, Mike Erickson continues to face damaging revelations. The Republican has been dogged by an abortion scandal for much of the past few months, leading to a strained relationship with conservative activists and pro-life groups. Now, Erickson has to respond to a damaging story in the Oregonian that a trip to Cuba that he has described as a “humanitarian trip” was in fact nothing but a vacation, and that Erickson masqueraded it as a humanitarian mission to make it a legal visit; and the hospital that Erickson says he visited might not even exist.

By itself, this story might not doom Erickson’s chances. But this will further worry Republicans who were looking for signs that Erickson could still overcome the abortion scandal and regain his footing. Erickson can self-fund his race, but without the backing of the national party (who has a lot to think about) or of GOP donors, he will have a tough time defeating state senator Kurt Schrader who has the full financial support of the DCCC.

In my new House ratings, OR-05 is rated lean retention, while AL-02 and PA-11 are toss-ups.