The GOP has long faced tough odds in the battle of the House. In an election year that promises to be just as Democratic-leaning than 2006, many vulnerable Republican incumbents chose to retire rather than wage a tough battle. Few high-profile Republicans agreed to jump in the races thus left open or to challenge the Democratic freshmen incumbents that were supposedly so vulnerable. And the fundraising disparity between the DCCC and NRCC was obvious from the first days of financial reports of the 2008 cycle.
The road has not been getting any easier for Republicans. While no new incumbent retired and while GOP chances are improving in high-profile districts (NH-01, LA-06 and PA-11), Democrats are continuing to expand the map. 13 GOP-held seats have been moved to a more vulnerable column since the June ratings - compared to only 2 Dem-held districts. There is now a total of 56 GOP-held seats on this list versus 34 Dem-held seats.
It is unlikely that future cycles would be this skewed towards Democrats, and the DCCC is eager to strike at the core of the GOP base, for it might not have another shot at them for a very long time. In this context, the importance of the financial disparity between the DCCC and the NRCC cannot be overstated: Money counts for more in House races than in Senate and presidential contests, and the DCCC’s ability to flex its financial muscle is already evident. Over the past month, the Democratic committee reserved a total of $53 million of air time in 51 districts, 34 of which are currently held by the GOP. That’s a very large playing field to invest in.
This money is not an actual buy - only a reservation - and the committee can pull the plug on any of this spending. In fact, it is likely that the millions the DCCC has reserved in seats like NY-13 , IL-14 and NY-25 will not even be spent - as these already look like probable Democratic victories - and that money could be relocated to other races. And consider that the $53 million the DCCC has reserved in the fall is within the $58 million of cash on hand it had at the end of June. If the DCCC keeps up its fundraising of $10 million/month, it could very well follow through on all the money it has already reserved (which would by itself be a huge money bomb) and still have as much as $40 million to spend!
Republicans, on the other hand, will face painful choices. In many conservative districts which lean Republican but in which the Democrats are injecting millions, the GOP candidates will be on their own, fighting the blue wave swamped under Democratic spending. Indeed, if the NRCC spends some of its small war chest on districts like FL-18, LA-07 and NM-02, what money will they have left to help their candidates in more obviously competitive districts - NM-01, KS-02, NY-26 or MO-06?
If the situation becomes bad enough that the GOP has to build a firewall in its third-tier of races (places like FL-18 and ID-01), the first and second-tier might find itself entirely submerged and Democrats might post huge gains. If the country’s mood balances itself a little and if John McCain manages to limit the electorate’s anti-Republican behavior, the third-tier could find itself much safer than it is now - and the GOP might be able to spend its resources on the first and second-tier, significantly limiting its losses.
So will we have a repeat of 2006, with Republicans powerless to stop the blue tsunami though they will probably score some gains of their own this time? Or a district-by-district battle that will still be fought with a clear Democratic edge? That is the key question of the upcoming months, and the answer will have much to do with the dynamics of the presidential race.
The full race-by-race ratings are available here. Here is the quick run-down of the changes:
- Less vulnerable Democratic seats: IL-08, IN-07, PA-07, OR-05
- Less vulnerable Republican seats: CA-52, IL-06, MN-06
- More vulnerable Democratic seats: LA-06, PA-11
- More vulnerable Republican seats: AL-02, AL-03, FL-18, FL-25, LA-07, NV-02, NV-03, NY-29, PA-03, VA-05, VA-10, VA-11, WV-02
The full ratings are available here.
Outlook: Democrats pick-up 13-22 seats, for a Democratic majority ranging from 249-186 to 258-177.
History of House ratings:
- June: The field continues to shift towards Democrats, particularly in New York
- February: As many more races get competitive, Democrats keep clear edge
- November: How many more Republican retirements?
- October: Democrats feel better as GOP faces worrisome retirements
- September: Democrats poised to keep majority
If McCain does succeed in making the GOP brand less toxic, or there’s a higher evangelical turnout (assisted by that cone of silence), the House will have a nearly identical composition in 2009 as it does now.
I doubt that forum last night will have that much of an impact. Most people will forget about it soon, especially with the conventions coming up.
I am pretty confident that Democrats will break into the 240’s (thereby gaining a net of at least 4 seats), but I’m hesitant to state they’ll get into the 250’s. I am hoping that they drop the GOP into the 180’s though, meaning getting at least 10 seats.
I think the Senate races are getting firmer, with the 5 races that are solid chances for takeover (VA, NM, AK, NH, CO), and there then being three races that are tossup to lean GOP retention in OR, MN, & MS(B). It appears more and more than Collins in ME and Dole in NC are going to be hard to make really competitive. I hope at a minimum it’s a DEM+5 to make it 56-44, with potential to get another seat or two. Amazing to think at this day in 2006 it was a 55-45 GOP majority; in three months it most probably will be the exact reverse.