Campaign Diaries

Both candidates have bought ad time during the Olympics but John McCain has been airing this negative spot - a somewhat surprising decision given that the campaigns were expected to reserve this buy for positive ads in order to go along with the mood of the Olympics and with the type of ads viewers would be most open to during this time. Obama, on the other hand, has been airing his “Hands” ad, an effort to brand the Democrat as a man of innovation in line with other ads that are airing during these two weeks.

Now, both campaigns appear to be moving on to phase 2. I do not watch enough of the Olympics to have noticed this, but First Read has observed that McCain appears to have replaced his “celebrity” ad with his “Original maverick” one, suggesting that the campaign has decided to scale back its negativity during Olympics coverage. Like Obama’s spot, this ad is also a branding effort, though it is significantly more gloomy than “Hands” and than the overall tone of Olympic advertising.

As for Obama, he has unveiled three new ads in two days - all devoted to the economy and to the specifics of his plan and of McCain’s. By combining positive ads in which he describes policies he would implement and negative ads that tie McCain to Bush’s record, Obama is seeking to focus the political conversation on the economy and on discussion of specifics - steering it away from energy issues, away from a spotlight on character .

First, Obama unveiled a new ad called “Three Bedroom Ranch” which will air during the Olympics:

This ad is no longer concerned with branding; it focuses on substantive bullet points of Obama’s economic plan, including “end[ing] tax breaks for companies that ship job oversees,” “create tax breaks for companies” that create jobs and a $1000 tax break for working class families. In the background is fast-paced of a house being built. Beyond fitting with the Olympic tone - the ad is decidedly upbeat and hopeful - it is effective for the Obama campaign. The Democrat has long faced criticism that there is no beef behind his speeches, and making sure all voters can identify certain key elements of his economic platform could go a long way towards addressing that.

Furthermore, Obama is trying to focus the election on policy proposals rather than on his character - and by that I do not mean that he is committed to taking a higher-road but simply that character attacks are the terrain on which Obama would be most vulnerable (just as Kerry was four years ago). Republicans know this, and they are increasingly committed to questioning Obama’s character. For instance, the New Mexico Republican party has released a radio ad (the full script is here) that ties Obama’s call for inflated tires with his “bitter” comments back in April. The goal is not to denounce Obama’s energy plan but to paint him as an out-of-touch elitist, too eager to dismiss the concerns of ‘average’ Americans:

Barack Obama wants you to inflate your car tires. Yes, that’s right. Inflate your tires. That’s Barack Obama’s solution to the high gas prices we pay in New Mexico every day.

Last week, Obama actually remarked, “We could save all the oil they’re talking about getting off drilling if everybody was just inflating their tires and getting regular tune-ups.”

This is the same Barack Obama who told a crowd of wealthy San Francisco liberals that people who live in small towns cling to their religion and guns because they’re bitter.

But Obama is airing negative ads of his own that complement the substantive ad he unveiled today. Yesterday, Obama released an ad devoted to the economy that was to air in 16 states - all those Obama usually invests in minus Georgia and Indiana:

In this ad, the Obama campaign seeks to tarnish McCain’s economic priorities by tying him to President Bush and to the millions spent every day on Iraq. This is an area in which McCain is particularly vulnerable, because he has not been talking about the economy beyond energy issues, and it is not the topic he is most comfortable discussing. It is also an area on which voters resent Bush’s record, and Obama’s efforts to exploit that could resonate with the electorate - particularly if McCain does not respond.

Indiana and Georgia’s exclusion led me to speculate that his campaign was scaling back its efforts in those two red states but they proved me wrong within a day. But today, Obama released an ad today that is airing only in Indiana! The ad (you can view it here) is another harsh attack on McCain’s economic record. It uses the Republican’s own words against him - a tactic Obama has been using more and more frequently - by juxtaposing his positive upbeat statements about the state of the American economy with clips from ‘average’ Americans describing how much they are struggling. The goal of this spot is the same as that New Mexico radio ad (show McCain as an out-of-touch politician) though it does not suggest that there is something in McCain’s character that prevents him from understanding the plight of struggling Americans.

It is difficult to know why this latter ad is airing only in Indiana. The most obvious explanation is that the campaign is looking to experiment new tactics and test how vulnerable McCain is to the “out of touch” attack. If the campaign finds that the use of these McCain clips is effective, they could expand the buy of this spot (or a similar one) to other states.