The convention starts on August 25th - two days after the Olympics, and the Monday after next - making it very likely (if not certain) that Obama’s pick will be announced early next week. But the veepstakes have drawn on for so long now that the speculation game is starting to get a bit old. In fact, we are even starting to get actual hints as to whom the candidates might pick - especially on the Democratic side!
For one, John Edwards disappeared from the list of potential Obama picks last week - and was followed today (albeit in very different circumstances) by Mark Warner. The former Virginia Governor was not considered to be part of the top-tier since he is running for Senate, but Marc Ambinder reported today that Warner was very seriously considered by Obama’s team and that they insisted that he submit vetting documents - something Warner resisted, joining Ted Strickland and Jim Webb on the list of high-profile Democrats who ruled themselves out.
Warner’s selection as the keynote speaker has led many to speculate that Tim Kaine’s standing has decreased under the theory that Obama will not want to have that Virginia-heavy a convention. (While Warner will probably not have the Tuesday primetime slot, a Kaine pick would mean that two of the three important Tuesday-Wednesday speeches would come from Virginians.) But I am not so sure of that: Obama is really committed to VA, and understandably so given that it is difficult to imagine Obama losing the election if he wins this state. If a Warner and Kaine double-header could move some numbers, why would Democrats not go there? And the news that Obama vetters were looking into picking Warner confirms how interested they are in the Old Dominion and makes Kaine an obvious replacement.
Two other hints have emerged from the convention chatter. First, Wednesday - the day the VP will pick - will be devoted to security themes, which many are taking as a sign that the VP will be someone with strong national security credentials (Reed, Biden, Nunn rather than Kaine, Sebelius). The second hint is the release of the names of Tuesday speakers, the argument being that the names that are being scheduled in on Tuesday are not being considered as potential vice-presidents. Besides Hillary Clinton and Warner, the names include: Kathleen Sebelius, Brian Schweitzer, Janet Napolitano, Ed Rendell. It does not include Tim Kaine, Joe Biden, Evan Bayh, Wesley Clark and Chet Edwards.
None of this, of course, is particularly convincing. It cannot be that difficult for convention planners to replace Sebelius in the Tuesday line-up if she is tapped as VP. But these convention hints are as tangible objects of speculation as we have had throughout the veepstakes. Note that Bayh has been attracting some negative attention over the past few days and that his stock might be plummeting. The New York Times’s article on Bayh’s VP prospects highlighted his involvement in the Committee for the Liberation of Iraq, which he co-chaired with John McCain and Joe Lieberman. And a group of liberal bloggers are organizing on Facebook to protest a potential Bayh pick.
More importantly, I noted this morning that Obama’s latest ad would not be running in Indiana and Georgia, two red states Obama usually targets - suggesting that his campaign was no longer looking at the state as a key battleground and thus perhaps no longer considering Bayh as a potential VP pick (the same argument could be made about Sam Nunn and Georgia). Only Joe Biden’s stock seems to be unaffected by all these hints.
As for Republicans, McCain has a bit more time than his opponent and his choice might be informed by Obama’s. But that does not mean that we are not getting hints about the GOP veepstakes. For one, Rob Portman - who many included in McCain’s short list - said that he is not being vetted. If true, that would shrink the number of top-tier GOPers even further and would be somewhat of a surprise given how much his name has been floated over the past few months.
Second, some names that had previously been dismissed because they were not deemed conservative enough are back in the chatter. McCain told the Weekly Standard today that Tom Ridge is not disqualified by his pro-choice views - bringing up the name of the former Pennsylvania Governor voluntarily: “Tom Ridge is one of the great leaders and he happens to be pro-choice. And I don’t think that that would necessarily rule Tom Ridge out.” He compared Ridge’s chances to those of Mike Bloomberg in terms that appear to strike down the possibility that McCain pick the New York Mayor: “Bloomberg is pro-gay rights, pro, you know, a number of other issues.”
The other name that is coming up again these days is Joe Lieberman. The Connecticut Senator has always been mentioned as a potential pick - and one McCain would love to make - but one that he might not dare to. Lieberman is too liberal on a number of issues for that choice to go well with conservative activists, after all. But Lieberman is becoming an increasingly vocal critic of Obama - making noise yesterday for suggesting that he does not put his country first - and McCain said today that he would send Lieberman (and Lindsay Graham) off to Georgia.
That gets us to the following exhaustive list of everyone who could conceivably end on the tickets. The top-tier at this point is reserved for those names that are fully expected; the second-tier for names that have been discussed at length over the past few weeks but that have faded a bit in the final stretch; and the long shots are names that have been mentioned but that would be very unexpected. For Republicans:
- Top-tier: Crist, Pawlenty, Romney
- Second-tier: Fiorina, Jindal, Lieberman, Palin, Portman, Ridge, Sanford, Thune, Whitman
- Long shots: Bloomberg, Cantor, Cox, Graham, Huckabee, Hutchinson, Kasich, Perdue, Fred Smith, Snow
And for Democrats:
- Top-tier: Biden, Kaine, Bayh
- Second-tier: Clark, Clinton, Dashle, Dodd, Chet Edwards, Hagel, Nunn, Reed, Richardson, Sebelius (the latter is hovering between the first and second tiers)
- Long shots: Bloomberg, Casey, Jones, McCaskill, Napolitano, Bill Nelson, Rendell, Schweitzer, Veneman
Most recent VP headlines:
- August 3rd: Speculation on timing and a new name in the GOP veepstakes
- July 29th: Kaine rising and Clinton fading
- July 27th: Veepstakes are entering their last stretch
Bayh may not be picked if the exclusion of IN from the latest ad means anything. Would be good to know if all advertising in IN is stopping. If it is then Bayh is unlikely.
I don`t think it matters if two of the speakers happen to be from VA. Although I don`t think Kaine is the best choice - at least Obama has a long list of good choices unlike McCain whose list is pretty small.
Lieberman will not be picked by McCain for several reasons - not least the base of the GOP would go mad. Lieberman is a solid Democrat (with the exception of the war and terrorism). Choosing him would mean that in the event of McCain’s death (which is why the VP pick is important for him) then a Democrat who supports the minimum wage, universal healthcare etc would become president. Also choosing Lieberman would leave the GOP in the position itis with Cheney - i.e. no anointed leader when the president leaves office. Can you see Lieberman winning GOP primaries? If Bloomberg is out of contention because he supports gay rights etc then Lieberman is certainly out for that and more!
Indeed, Guy, I was going to talk about the Indiana exclusion and apparently forgot. Thanks for reminding me!
I agree with Guy. Lieberman is an extreme longshot.
For one reason, the hawk element of the Democratic party he represents is likely already voting for McCain.
The only circumstances I could imagine a VP pick would be if the Clinton drama completely overtook the Convention, there was a vicious accreditation and floor fight and the party was so disunited that a Lieberman pick could pick up a lot of the disgusted people. I don’t see that realistically happening though. Clinton wants to be the nominee in 4 years, and imploding the party doesn’t lend itself to that.
I’m not sure that Clinton personally wants to be the nominee in four years. Hell, there is alot of Clinton Fatigue now, there probably will be even more four years from now, not to forget that Clinton would likely have to give her Senate Seat. It would be foolish to assume she will be the easy favorite for 2012 if Obama loses. In fact, if McCain has a good presidency, she would probably be one of the weakest options.
In terms of VP, its more likely that Obama will choose a national security VP like Biden rather than someone like Kaine if the VP’s speech is to be about security. Reed would probably be the best choice but that make his seat a GOP freebie as Rhode Island has a Republican governor, so that would probably preclude him.
On McCain, I’ m not suprised that Portman is not being vetted on the account that he has expressed a lack of interest in the job. Tom Ridge could probably help McCain alot in Pennsylavia, and turn it from leaning Dem to swing state. However, picking him could destroy McCain among social conservatives and in other states like Ohio and Colorado cost McCain dearly in either lackluster votes or votes for Barr. I still say that the real contest is between Rommny and Pawlenty. Pawlenty as a nice safe choice who could make Minnesota somewhat competive (although he isn’t popular enough to make a major impact) and not offend anyone, or Rommny, who could help McCain alot on the ecnomny but also be damaging among evangelicals.
I agree with Jaxx that McCain’s choice is down to two. Obama has many more options - shows a depth of talent on the Dem benches.
I still think that Wes Clark is the best choice Obama could make, but Biden would also be excellent. It’s just that Biden sometimes has a problem keeping his mouth shut. I do agree that the national security theme for Wednesday is a dead giveaway that it won’t be Bayh or Kaine.
As for McCain, it will probably be Pawlenty or Romney, probably Romney.
Taniel, why do you think it likely that Obama will name his pick early next week? I would think that he will keep us all in suspense until the very last day or so.
Apparently, Obama has another state-specific ad for Indiana. He is not giving up on the state; it just wouldn’t make any sense with all the investment in organization and the number of field offices opened there. I really wish some polls would come out for Indiana.
As for the VP choice, it could very well be a surprise.
I think Biden may end up being the choice. He has been mostly silent for the last few months and has all the needed qualifacations. As to his reputation for speaking his mind; that hasn’t stopped others in the past and may actually be an asset (at least with me).
Wes Clark, the other national security expert on the list, has been in trouble recently for going off message and hasn’t been taken out of the VP race.
Any of the three top choices listed here could actually benefit the Republicans in down-ticket races. Bayh would be replaced by an appointment by the likely re-elected GOP Gov. Daniels (and if Sen. Lugar were to serve in an Obama cabinet, Daniels would appoint BOTH seats) until a special election. Kaine would be replaced by GOP Lt. Gov Bolling, who would run for a full term in 2009 as an incumbent (a rare occurrence in a state with a nonconcurrent terms law). Biden would be replaced by an interim Democrat, but that person could face the very popular at-large Rep. Mike Castle who was a Deputy Attorney General, state legislator, Lieutenant Governor and two-term Governor before becoming an 8-term Congressman. None of McCain’s top choices would give a similar advantages to Democrats.
I think a lot of people are not giving Sebelius the attention she deserves. Many will say she would get it only because she is a woman to try to gather the Hillary voters but there are other benefits to her as well.
Primarily how she worked with the Republican party in Kansas. Kansas. And the Obama campaign seems to be trying to focus on the budget surplus in Iraq and the 9 trillion (I believe) budget deficit here in the US. Sebelius is known in Kansas for turning the budget around quite quickly.
And while I do not believe that she would pull Kansas into a blue state, having someone from a state that might not switch would show that Obama is fierce on his 50-state campaign. It could help a little bit in the east and west neighboring states as well. Not much, but even one percent would be awesome in Missouri and Colorado.
And yes, I know that there are faults. She would not help for people who think he knows little of foreign policy, but I don’t know if Biden would really help with that either. With foreign policy I think Obama is just going to have to take a deep breath and try to change the discussion on it so that people will see that it means more than having big guns.
Bayh or Biden still look like the safest choices. And in Obama’s position, those are the only choices he should consider. They have each been elected to high office at least 4 times and have awesome resumes. The one other person who I think should be inculded in the dark horse list is Bob Graham of FL.
He and Bayh have similarly spectacular resumes and either could help swing a red state, but Graham has the added plus of thoughtfully opposing the war from the beginning.