Comments on: State of the race: The election is remarkably stable - but for which candidate is that good news? http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/08/13/state-of-the-race/ Obsessive political analysis Sun, 21 Mar 2010 03:24:09 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Chris http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/08/13/state-of-the-race/comment-page-1/#comment-3137 Chris Thu, 14 Aug 2008 01:21:21 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1713#comment-3137 I think folks are reading way too much into Indiana and Georgia not being on the list for this ad. If an ad tests ineffectively with a certain group of voters, it won't air. It's completely in the realm of possibility that the ad just didn't have an omph factor in GA and IN or some demographic that is large in those states. On the other idea that I've seen folks post about, ruling out GA would be not be smart. I've yet to see a poll where Obama and McCain aren't in a statistical tie or something close to such a tie. Plus, McCain is far from popular among Republicans here and that includes the super-conservative evangelical crowd. I think folks are reading way too much into Indiana and Georgia not being on the list for this ad. If an ad tests ineffectively with a certain group of voters, it won’t air. It’s completely in the realm of possibility that the ad just didn’t have an omph factor in GA and IN or some demographic that is large in those states.

On the other idea that I’ve seen folks post about, ruling out GA would be not be smart. I’ve yet to see a poll where Obama and McCain aren’t in a statistical tie or something close to such a tie. Plus, McCain is far from popular among Republicans here and that includes the super-conservative evangelical crowd.

]]> By: Guy http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/08/13/state-of-the-race/comment-page-1/#comment-3136 Guy Wed, 13 Aug 2008 22:46:51 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1713#comment-3136 I am surprised that both GA and IN are not on the list since I would have expected the 18 "battleground" states that Obama's campaign chose would stay that way until early September when they could assess their chances in all those states after the dust has settled from the VP pick and conventions. The whole point of advertising in GA, NC, IN etc was to see if numbers could be moved and to assess in September whether they are realistic chances for the election. I am surprised that both GA and IN are not on the list since I would have expected the 18 “battleground” states that Obama’s campaign chose would stay that way until early September when they could assess their chances in all those states after the dust has settled from the VP pick and conventions. The whole point of advertising in GA, NC, IN etc was to see if numbers could be moved and to assess in September whether they are realistic chances for the election.

]]> By: Joe from NC http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/08/13/state-of-the-race/comment-page-1/#comment-3135 Joe from NC Wed, 13 Aug 2008 21:15:18 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1713#comment-3135 All Democrats knew that nominating either Obama or Hillary would be a risk and McCain was the safest Republican choice due to his moderate reputation, his distance from Bush and his being spared from the intraparty attacks last year because no one took him seriously until December. The obvious Democratic lean this year is Obama's greatest advantage. This lead has been blunted somewhat by the improving conditions in Iraq and the Dems underestimating the appeal of offshore drilling, but that Obama is still competative in so many states bodes well for his chances. All Democrats knew that nominating either Obama or Hillary would be a risk and McCain was the safest Republican choice due to his moderate reputation, his distance from Bush and his being spared from the intraparty attacks last year because no one took him seriously until December.

The obvious Democratic lean this year is Obama’s greatest advantage. This lead has been blunted somewhat by the improving conditions in Iraq and the Dems underestimating the appeal of offshore drilling, but that Obama is still competative in so many states bodes well for his chances.

]]> By: Taniel http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/08/13/state-of-the-race/comment-page-1/#comment-3134 Taniel Wed, 13 Aug 2008 20:49:22 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1713#comment-3134 Jaxx, As you say yourself there has been only one Indiana poll that I am aware of since Obama became the nominee. It did show Obama ahead by 1%, but that was such an unexpected result that it would take more than one poll to confirm that. As you added, Obama is surely conducting internal polls in the state so his campaign knows much more about the state of play there. If Obama is indeed scaling back the Indiana investment, however, it would also mean that Bayh isn't as hot in the veepstakes as we might think. Jaxx,

As you say yourself there has been only one Indiana poll that I am aware of since Obama became the nominee. It did show Obama ahead by 1%, but that was such an unexpected result that it would take more than one poll to confirm that. As you added, Obama is surely conducting internal polls in the state so his campaign knows much more about the state of play there. If Obama is indeed scaling back the Indiana investment, however, it would also mean that Bayh isn’t as hot in the veepstakes as we might think.

]]> By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/08/13/state-of-the-race/comment-page-1/#comment-3133 Jaxx Raxor Wed, 13 Aug 2008 20:42:25 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1713#comment-3133 Guy I am also not suprised that Obama is scaling back in Georgia. No matter how many AAs are in the state, they are not a majority, and the whites in that state are just too conservative. Obama NEEDS Bob Barr to do well in Georgia and take votes away from McCain but it just isn't happening. Indiana is a bit more of a suprise considereing how close polling has shown. On the other hand, there has been little polls in Indiana and it's possible that Obama's internal pollsters are showing him not making any good ground. And it is also true that if Obama isn't going to play for Indiana, then Evan Bayh is probably not going to be picked as VP. On the stability of the race, this is probably good for McCain because he hasn't imploded like the generic Republican would. It's starting to become clear that Obama's best chance to win the Presidency (as Jim W says) lies in keeping all of the Kerry states and winning Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado. If McCain can focus Obama on only those states, then a major part of the battle will have have been won. Of course, Obama's biggest advantages probably won't come until after the conventions, in which McCain will be unable to match Obama's spending. Guy I am also not suprised that Obama is scaling back in Georgia. No matter how many AAs are in the state, they are not a majority, and the whites in that state are just too conservative. Obama NEEDS Bob Barr to do well in Georgia and take votes away from McCain but it just isn’t happening.

Indiana is a bit more of a suprise considereing how close polling has shown. On the other hand, there has been little polls in Indiana and it’s possible that Obama’s internal pollsters are showing him not making any good ground. And it is also true that if Obama isn’t going to play for Indiana, then Evan Bayh is probably not going to be picked as VP.

On the stability of the race, this is probably good for McCain because he hasn’t imploded like the generic Republican would. It’s starting to become clear that Obama’s best chance to win the Presidency (as Jim W says) lies in keeping all of the Kerry states and winning Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado. If McCain can focus Obama on only those states, then a major part of the battle will have have been won. Of course, Obama’s biggest advantages probably won’t come until after the conventions, in which McCain will be unable to match Obama’s spending.

]]> By: zoot http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/08/13/state-of-the-race/comment-page-1/#comment-3132 zoot Wed, 13 Aug 2008 18:49:54 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1713#comment-3132 I'm in total agreement with Taniel's last remark and Andy's comment. It's easy for political junkies (like me) to lose perspective, but the great majority of voters simply aren't tuned in fully right now. That's why the intense focus on daily polls makes little sense to me, with the sole exception of consistent trend lines over a relatively long period. It's great fun for us all to prognosticate, but to do so with high likelihood of outcome is, well, unrealistic. Every time I see a comment that Obama has "slipped" 3 points from a 7% lead to a 4% lead in State A, followed by a disclaimer that the candidates are "statistically tied" at 52-48 because "4% is within the margin of error", it leaves me wondering who's smoking what. I’m in total agreement with Taniel’s last remark and Andy’s comment. It’s easy for political junkies (like me) to lose perspective, but the great majority of voters simply aren’t tuned in fully right now. That’s why the intense focus on daily polls makes little sense to me, with the sole exception of consistent trend lines over a relatively long period. It’s great fun for us all to prognosticate, but to do so with high likelihood of outcome is, well, unrealistic.

Every time I see a comment that Obama has “slipped” 3 points from a 7% lead to a 4% lead in State A, followed by a disclaimer that the candidates are “statistically tied” at 52-48 because “4% is within the margin of error”, it leaves me wondering who’s smoking what.

]]> By: Andy http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/08/13/state-of-the-race/comment-page-1/#comment-3131 Andy Wed, 13 Aug 2008 17:27:04 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1713#comment-3131 Excellent analysis, Taniel. Obama is the favorite and has the greater opportunity to win, but at this stage, McCain certainly isn't out of it. It's foolish for the media to speculate why Obama isn't leading by more and it illustrates their flimsy grasp (most of them at least) on electoral politics. Excellent analysis, Taniel. Obama is the favorite and has the greater opportunity to win, but at this stage, McCain certainly isn’t out of it. It’s foolish for the media to speculate why Obama isn’t leading by more and it illustrates their flimsy grasp (most of them at least) on electoral politics.

]]> By: Guy http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/08/13/state-of-the-race/comment-page-1/#comment-3130 Guy Wed, 13 Aug 2008 17:17:08 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1713#comment-3130 I am not suprised by Obama scaling back in Georgia - it was always a stretch goal. I am surprised by his caling back in Indiana since the polls had shown this to be tight, although there hadn't been much public polling from IN recently so this would indicate the state was slipping away. Obama has got something from his expenditure in Florida. Since there was no primary in FL he had to start from scratch and the CW was that this state was an easy win for McCain. Now it is a 4% state so McCain will have to spend time and money on a state he has to win. Obama does not need FL to win and to win well (i.e >300 EV's). There will be some game changing event like the convention or probably the debates that will move this one way or the other. Obama is in the best position since he is ahead by any measure and there is a risk that an event could weaken rather than strength him. McCain is the one who needs the hail mary of a good event. I am not suprised by Obama scaling back in Georgia - it was always a stretch goal. I am surprised by his caling back in Indiana since the polls had shown this to be tight, although there hadn’t been much public polling from IN recently so this would indicate the state was slipping away.

Obama has got something from his expenditure in Florida. Since there was no primary in FL he had to start from scratch and the CW was that this state was an easy win for McCain. Now it is a 4% state so McCain will have to spend time and money on a state he has to win. Obama does not need FL to win and to win well (i.e >300 EV’s).
There will be some game changing event like the convention or probably the debates that will move this one way or the other. Obama is in the best position since he is ahead by any measure and there is a risk that an event could weaken rather than strength him. McCain is the one who needs the hail mary of a good event.

]]> By: Jim W http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/08/13/state-of-the-race/comment-page-1/#comment-3129 Jim W Wed, 13 Aug 2008 17:03:31 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1713#comment-3129 I see only 3 of the red states in 2004 that are leaning towards Obama at this time: Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa. Doing simple math, if Obama captures these states and retains the blue states Kerry won, he'd win in the electoral college 273-265. Right now, I classify Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, New Hampshire and Virginia as tossups. Michigan and New Hampshire are surprisingly close. I think that both states will eventually be won by Obama, but I have reached the confidence to change them to leaning. Florida is leaning towards McCain, along with NC, MO, IN, ND, MT, AK, and SD. PA, OR, and WI are leaning towards Obama. I believe all the other states are fairly safe for the respective parties at this time. The Democratic National Convention could be a major factor on whether Obama wins. Clinton and company need to be a positive force for Obama, and Obama needs a non-offensive VP. I see only 3 of the red states in 2004 that are leaning towards Obama at this time: Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa. Doing simple math, if Obama captures these states and retains the blue states Kerry won, he’d win in the electoral college 273-265.

Right now, I classify Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, New Hampshire and Virginia as tossups. Michigan and New Hampshire are surprisingly close. I think that both states will eventually be won by Obama, but I have reached the confidence to change them to leaning.

Florida is leaning towards McCain, along with NC, MO, IN, ND, MT, AK, and SD.

PA, OR, and WI are leaning towards Obama.

I believe all the other states are fairly safe for the respective parties at this time. The Democratic National Convention could be a major factor on whether Obama wins. Clinton and company need to be a positive force for Obama, and Obama needs a non-offensive VP.

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