Yesterday was a day with only one noteworthy presidential poll but it was very surprising - with Obama taking the lead in Alaska. Today, it is still very early in the afternoon but we already have 5 state polls, all from important battleground states - but all results are pretty much what we expect - which provides us an opportunity to look at the state of the race, amid the first signs (discussed later in this post) that Obama might be scaling back his investment in some red states. And the day’s question: For which candidate is the race’s stability good news?
First, a look at the polls:
- A national poll by Pew finds the race at 46% to 43% - a slight tightening from Obama’s 5% lead in July and 8% lead in May that puts the poll in line most other national surveys, including the trackings. Pew attributes this to McCain’s consolidating the GOP base (88%) while Obama still struggles to bring Clinton voters back.
- In Florida (polling history), Insider Advantage finds McCain narrowly ahead 48% to 44%. This is IA’s first poll from Florida, though their headline says Obama “losing ground,” accompanied by a very alarming summary of the findings.
- In North Carolina (polling history), SUSA has the race staying close, with McCain getting 49% to Obama’s 45%. The previous poll had McCain leading by 5%. Obama gets 33% of the white vote and 91% of the black vote, which makes up 19% of the sample, a tiny bit smaller than what Obama is hoping it will be.
- In Pennsylvania (polling history), a Franklin & Marshall poll has the Democrat leading 46% to 41%. Franklin hadn’t polled this race since February.
- In New Jersey (polling history), Quinnipiac finds Obama holding strong, ahead 51% to 41%.
- In Wisconsin (polling history), Obama is leading 47% to 42% in Strategic Vision’s latest poll
As I have pointed out many times before, the extent to which polls from toss-up states have been finding consistent results since the beginning of June is remarkable, with only Ohio and Florida looking like contests in which polling is somewhat all over the place. In fact, even Florida surveys look like they are falling into a more orderly pattern, as all polls taken in August have found McCain with a narrow lead. McCain is stuck in the low-single digits in North Carolina and Obama hovers somewhere between the mid-to-high single digits in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Is this consistency good news for Obama or for McCain? To the extent that Obama is ahead - in national polls, but also in terms of putting much more red states in play than McCain is contesting blue states - stability is not a problem for him. Commentators are asking why Obama has not put the election away, but the state of the race as of early June already reflected the year’s Democratic bent. Since then, most of the attention has been devoted to Obama, the McCain campaign has upped the volume of its attacks and Obama has looked reactive - so it is good of Obama to still be in the running in places like North Carolina.
Also, the McCain campaign is staying financially on par with Obama’s spending in many of the battleground states - and certainly in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That will not necessarily be the case starting on September 4th, when McCain will be limited to spending $84 million and will not necessarily be able to stay on air in all the states he is advertising in now. Up until that point, the advantages Obama is building on are intangibles that will not necessarily be reflected in summer polling: the ground game, the hugely superior number of state offices (Obama just opened his 20th office in New Mexico, whereas McCain only has 1), the voter registration drive and the possible increase of the black vote - all these factors could boost the Democrat by 1-2% on November 4th, making the difference in close races.
On the other hand, the consistency is also good news for McCain. The spotlight might have been turned on Obama over the past few weeks, but that was often meant to help the Illinois Senator: His reconciliation with Hillary Clinton and his trip to the Middle East and Europe, for instance, did not help his poll numbers for more than a few days. That does not meant that these events - the trip in particular - did not impact voters’ impression of Obama in a way that might help him down the line, but Republicans were clearly worried they would fall much further behind by the end of the summer - and there is no doubt whatsoever that McCain is very much still in contention.
Furthermore, the two candidates might be on par in many battlegrounds like MO, PA, WI and OH - but that is not the case in many other major states, starting with Florida and North Carolina. McCain is spending nothing on ads whereas Obama is spending millions, so it has to be disappointing to Democrats that numbers have not moved in those states since Obama started his ad blitz.
Note that Obama is launching a new attack ad today (on the economy) and the list of states in which it is running (provided by First Read) has been reduced by 2 compared to the usual slate of battlegrounds. Which states are out? Red Georgia and red Indiana - a first sign that Obama is scaling back its expand-the-map campaign, and possibly a sign that Evan Bayh might not be selected as VP. (We might talk about the ad later today.)
Obama’s challenge appears to be that he doesn’t have that many more voters to convince in those states in which getting a national Democrat at 45% is already an exploit. If he is to close the 4-5 points by which he is consistently trailing in North Carolina, it will be with marginal gains among white voters (his 33% in the SUSA poll is already a 6% improvement over Kerry) and getting black turnout to inch upwards from the 19% of this poll to about 23-24%. Blacks make up 20% of North Carolina’s electorate, so that’s a significant increase - but that’s what it takes to win such a red state.
In short, then, the consistency of state and national polls hardens Obama’s position as the favorite but it also confirms that the election is in no way a done deal. Overall, the electorate appears to still be where it was in early June: wanting a Democratic President, unsure about Obama and waiting for him to pass some kind of test to be reassured. As I have suggested before by drawing the parallel to 1980, that moment might not come until the debates in late September/early October - and we should certainly not expect it to come during the summer, when voters are simply not paying attention.
I see only 3 of the red states in 2004 that are leaning towards Obama at this time: Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa. Doing simple math, if Obama captures these states and retains the blue states Kerry won, he’d win in the electoral college 273-265.
Right now, I classify Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, New Hampshire and Virginia as tossups. Michigan and New Hampshire are surprisingly close. I think that both states will eventually be won by Obama, but I have reached the confidence to change them to leaning.
Florida is leaning towards McCain, along with NC, MO, IN, ND, MT, AK, and SD.
PA, OR, and WI are leaning towards Obama.
I believe all the other states are fairly safe for the respective parties at this time. The Democratic National Convention could be a major factor on whether Obama wins. Clinton and company need to be a positive force for Obama, and Obama needs a non-offensive VP.
I am not suprised by Obama scaling back in Georgia - it was always a stretch goal. I am surprised by his caling back in Indiana since the polls had shown this to be tight, although there hadn’t been much public polling from IN recently so this would indicate the state was slipping away.
Obama has got something from his expenditure in Florida. Since there was no primary in FL he had to start from scratch and the CW was that this state was an easy win for McCain. Now it is a 4% state so McCain will have to spend time and money on a state he has to win. Obama does not need FL to win and to win well (i.e >300 EV’s).
There will be some game changing event like the convention or probably the debates that will move this one way or the other. Obama is in the best position since he is ahead by any measure and there is a risk that an event could weaken rather than strength him. McCain is the one who needs the hail mary of a good event.
Excellent analysis, Taniel. Obama is the favorite and has the greater opportunity to win, but at this stage, McCain certainly isn’t out of it. It’s foolish for the media to speculate why Obama isn’t leading by more and it illustrates their flimsy grasp (most of them at least) on electoral politics.
I’m in total agreement with Taniel’s last remark and Andy’s comment. It’s easy for political junkies (like me) to lose perspective, but the great majority of voters simply aren’t tuned in fully right now. That’s why the intense focus on daily polls makes little sense to me, with the sole exception of consistent trend lines over a relatively long period. It’s great fun for us all to prognosticate, but to do so with high likelihood of outcome is, well, unrealistic.
Every time I see a comment that Obama has “slipped” 3 points from a 7% lead to a 4% lead in State A, followed by a disclaimer that the candidates are “statistically tied” at 52-48 because “4% is within the margin of error”, it leaves me wondering who’s smoking what.
Guy I am also not suprised that Obama is scaling back in Georgia. No matter how many AAs are in the state, they are not a majority, and the whites in that state are just too conservative. Obama NEEDS Bob Barr to do well in Georgia and take votes away from McCain but it just isn’t happening.
Indiana is a bit more of a suprise considereing how close polling has shown. On the other hand, there has been little polls in Indiana and it’s possible that Obama’s internal pollsters are showing him not making any good ground. And it is also true that if Obama isn’t going to play for Indiana, then Evan Bayh is probably not going to be picked as VP.
On the stability of the race, this is probably good for McCain because he hasn’t imploded like the generic Republican would. It’s starting to become clear that Obama’s best chance to win the Presidency (as Jim W says) lies in keeping all of the Kerry states and winning Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado. If McCain can focus Obama on only those states, then a major part of the battle will have have been won. Of course, Obama’s biggest advantages probably won’t come until after the conventions, in which McCain will be unable to match Obama’s spending.
Jaxx,
As you say yourself there has been only one Indiana poll that I am aware of since Obama became the nominee. It did show Obama ahead by 1%, but that was such an unexpected result that it would take more than one poll to confirm that. As you added, Obama is surely conducting internal polls in the state so his campaign knows much more about the state of play there. If Obama is indeed scaling back the Indiana investment, however, it would also mean that Bayh isn’t as hot in the veepstakes as we might think.
All Democrats knew that nominating either Obama or Hillary would be a risk and McCain was the safest Republican choice due to his moderate reputation, his distance from Bush and his being spared from the intraparty attacks last year because no one took him seriously until December.
The obvious Democratic lean this year is Obama’s greatest advantage. This lead has been blunted somewhat by the improving conditions in Iraq and the Dems underestimating the appeal of offshore drilling, but that Obama is still competative in so many states bodes well for his chances.
I am surprised that both GA and IN are not on the list since I would have expected the 18 “battleground” states that Obama’s campaign chose would stay that way until early September when they could assess their chances in all those states after the dust has settled from the VP pick and conventions. The whole point of advertising in GA, NC, IN etc was to see if numbers could be moved and to assess in September whether they are realistic chances for the election.
I think folks are reading way too much into Indiana and Georgia not being on the list for this ad. If an ad tests ineffectively with a certain group of voters, it won’t air. It’s completely in the realm of possibility that the ad just didn’t have an omph factor in GA and IN or some demographic that is large in those states.
On the other idea that I’ve seen folks post about, ruling out GA would be not be smart. I’ve yet to see a poll where Obama and McCain aren’t in a statistical tie or something close to such a tie. Plus, McCain is far from popular among Republicans here and that includes the super-conservative evangelical crowd.