Campaign Diaries

The McCain campaign has been working overtime to label Obama as a “celebrity” who is not “ready to lead” with its two ads released over the past 9 days. It is difficult to judge the effect these ads will have on the electorate. Even the most successful spots often have delayed impacts, shaping the way voters view a candidate and influencing their choices only weeks later. In fact, the only people who might have a good sense of whether the ads are moving numbers are McCain’s team, as the campaign’s pollsters have surely been instructed to closely track the electorate’s perception of Obama in states in which the “celeb” ads are airing.

That the McCain campaign has now released a third ad that builds on the same theme is the clearest sign we have that the GOP thinks the “celeb” ads are for now effective. Or perhaps numbers have yet to move but the McCain campaign is determined to keep the focus on this attack until the charge starts to stick. Either way, this spot suggests Republicans have no intention of backing down:

As the previous two “celeb” ads, the ad starts with pictures of a cheering Obama crowd, followed by images of a series of magazines that have put Obama on the cover. “Life in the spotlight must be grand, but for the rest of us times are tough,” says the announcer, in one of McCain’s most direct attempts up until now to imply Obama is not “one of us.” Just as the previous ads, however, this start is somewhat of a risk for McCain in that it uses positive images of the Illinois Senator. As Marc Ambinder says, “Watch the first 15 seconds of the ad without audio…. it’s hard to tell whether it’s an Obama commercial or a McCain commercial.”

The ad goes on to a more policy attack, accusing Obama of wanting to raise taxes on families that make more than $42,000 and on small business. The tagline - “painful taxes, hard choices for your budget, not ready to lead” - combines the traditional big-taxes attack the GOP aims at liberals combined with the inexperience charge.

This version no longer contains (1) any reference to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears (like the 2nd “celeb” ad), which was the most condemned part of the ad’s first version and (2) no mention of energy issues. It focuses more directly on the theme McCain wants to hit Obama on to force voters to think about Obama’s experience level and whether he is too risky a choice. McCain’s goal is to force independents and even Republicans who are thinking of voting Obama to pause and wonder why they are tempted to do so, make them fear that they are attracted to Obama’s celebrity status more than anything else. (A radio ad McCain released on Spanish -language stations today hits Obama here again: “No doubt, Barack Obama is a popular figure, a celebrity who says the right thing. But will he do the right thing.”)

Also, and not that this has stopped campaigns before, the ad’s claims on Obama’s tax plans are being denounced by media outlets. First Read calls it dubious, for instance, and the Obama campaign released one of its harshest replies yet to a McCain ad by using the word “lie” repeatedly: ” This ad is a lie, and it’s part of the old, tired politics of a party in Washington that has run out of ideas and run out of steam. Even though a host of independent, nonpartisan organizations have said this attack isn’t true, Senator McCain continues to lie.”

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign released the ad that will show during the Olympics coverage. Both campaigns are expected to be showing positive ads in the Olympic time slots they bought (though I am not sure what McCain will be airing), and Obama’s spot is called “hands:”

httv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tz7m2JhVOdY

The ad starts by celebrating economic innovations (”The hands that built this nation can build a new economy. The hands that harvest crops can also harvest the winds”) with footage of hands engaged in various activities… before moving on to elements of Obama’s “new vision for the economy” because “America’s future is in our hands.” The spot is an attempt to brand Obama as the future-oriented candidate who can anchor America in the 21st century.

Ohio residents, finally, will get to listen to an Obama ad on the radio (listen it here) that hits McCain on the issue of job losses. The ad features audio of McCain declaring that he doesn’t know “whether he can stop it or not” and goes on to say that “It was McCain who used his influence in the Senate to help foreign-owned DHL buy a U.S. company and gain control over the jobs that are now on the chopping block in Ohio.”