Campaign Diaries

Tomorrow is the opening ceremony of the Olympics and the start of Barack Obama’s vacation. The electorate’s attention will be further diluted during the next two weeks, making it unlikely that anything but the vice-presidential picks will change the race’s dynamics. But consider how little poll numbers have changed since Obama became the presumptive nominee at the beginning of June. A lot has happened - including massive, expensive and often negative media buys - but neither the national nor the state polls have changed much.

The tracking polls make that the most obvious; despite a few bounces here and there (particularly in the 2-3 days after Obama’s international trip), the numbers have hovered in the same area and they are staying around that average again today, with Obama up 3% in Gallup and 1% in Rasmussen. And two of the three main state polls released today have the exact same margins as the polling group’s previous surveys from those states:

• In Oregon, SUSA has Obama leading by the same margin he was in June - 48% to 45%. Those who have already made up their mind favor Obama by 6%.

• In Wisconsin, a WPR poll also finds the same exact margin it did in its previous poll, with Obama leading by 6% - 44% to 38%.

• Also in Wisconsin, Rasmussen shows an even tighter race, with Obama ahead 47% to 43%. With leaners, however, Obama leads 51% to 44%. He led by 11% last month (10% with leaners). The two candidates have a comparable favorability rating (53% for Obama, 56% for McCain).

• In New York, Rasmussen finds Obama leading 55% to 36% (60% to 29% in late June) while Quinnipiac shows the race at 57% to 36% (50% to 36% in June).

• No surprise in Alabama either, as Capital Survey Research Center has McCain leading 47% to 34%.

• In Massachusetts, Rasmussen shows Obama leading 51% to 36% - the midpoint between his June and July numbers.

Obama’s margins in Oregon and Wisconsin (polling history) have typically been larger in past surveys - though two of the polling groups had the same numbers last time they polled here (and trendlines are often the most important indicator). McCain (who looked committed to contesting coastal states both in the Northwest and in the Northeast) has not included Oregon in the 11 states in which it is airing ads - and neither is Obama, underscoring neither campaign believes Oregon will be that close.

Wisconsin, however, is on the ad list of both campaigns. All polls released from June 5th to today have an Obama lead of at least 9%, making both of today’s polls tighter than we have been seeing. The GOP might hope it gets some good regional press out of the St. Paul convention, and after all the state was among the closest in the past two elections, making it difficult to imagine a rout. Wisconsin is rated lean Obama in my electoral college ratings, and McCain is expected to keep up the pressure here.

Down-the-ballot, we get one interesting poll - albeit an internal one:

• In PA-11, Republican Lou Barletta releases his second internal poll in two months and is ahead of Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorski 45% to 41%. (The poll last month had Barletta up 47% to 42%.)

• In the uncompetitive Massachusetts Senate race, John Kerry crushes his challenger 56% to 29% - 59% to 32% with leaners - in Rasmussen’s latest poll.

PA-11 has emerged as one of the Republican’s best opportunities, despite being on few people’s radar screen just a few months ago. Kanjorski defeated Barletta in 2002, but the Republican attracted a lot of attention in the past few years for staunchly anti-immigration positions. Overall, it looks like Kanjorski fell in the trap of so many Republican representatives who unexpectedly fell in 2006 - he was lulled in a false sense of security and did not work his district as vulnerable incumbents should. Sure, both polls from the race were internal surveys for the Barletta campaign but Kanjorski has not released a poll of his own - which says a lot.

Last month, the DCCC launched an ad in this district. (In fact, it was the DCCC’s first ad for any of the November races.) In a district that narrowly voted for Kerry in 2006, the ad hit Barletta’s association with George Bush: “Barletta supported George Bush’s failed economic policies. Barletta even helped lead Bush’s campaign in Pennsylvania. And both have supported privatizing Social Security, putting our retirement at risk.” It is likely that the DCCC took the decision to rush to Kanjorski’s rescue after some of their own internal polls showed him to be in trouble.