Comments on: Wednesday polls: Obama ahead in 3 national polls, Sens. Smith and Lautenberg open big leads

By: Guy

Guy — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 12:04:20 +0000

Just looking at the polls the most telling thing is Obama has a solid 45-47% yet McCain is left reeling on 39-41%. Any GOP candidate should easily get 40% just as any Democratic candidate would get 40% with the fight being over the middle 20% of the electorate - looks like Obama has made in roads in that group (some of whom will call themselves Dems due to the shift in registration).

By: dsimon

dsimon — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 06:14:25 +0000

I’d say the Republicans gain about 5 seats.

I don’t see any plausible scenario at the moment where the Republicans do any better than losing 10 seats. There are only a handful of vulnerable Democratic-held seats, and even fewer that one might rate tossup or lean Republican. But there are many, many more vulnerable Republican seats, some of which are already leaning Democratic.

Even the Republican “ROMP” (Regain Our Majority Program) in the House is targeting only one Democratic-held seat so far. The rest of their 19 contests are trying to protect seats they already have. That doesn’t say much about their chances for pickups.

Unless things change big time between now and November, it seems extremely likely that Democrats will have a double digit pick-up. I’d put chances of a net Republican pick-up at near zero right now.

By: Ron

Ron — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 01:54:03 +0000

Mikeel, Republicans wont gain seats unless McCain is winning a 45 state landslide.

By: Taniel

Taniel — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 00:20:55 +0000

It’s obviously much much harder to get an assessment of House dynamics than Senate predictions, but it is extremely unlikely (to say the least) that Republicans would score a net gain of seats. Democrats might under-perform, certainly, but the GOP has 17 open seats to defend, many of whom look to be already lost (VA-11, NY-13, NY-25…). It would take a catastrophe of epic proportions for Democrats to lose more seats than they gain.

By: Joe from NC

Joe from NC — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 23:29:58 +0000

I agree with Jaxx and Mike.
If it weren’t for the tremendous cash disparity between the DCCC and the NRCC and the large number of Republican retirements, I might agree with Mikeel, but given these factors, even the NRCC itself predicts that the Dems will gain 3-5 seats

By: Jaxx Raxor

Jaxx Raxor — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 23:12:12 +0000

Mikeel I think you are right: the GOP will pick up some seats and 5 is a good number. However the Democrats will pick up many more, which coincides with a net gain for Democrats in the double digits, I say between 10-15 net gain in seats.

By: Mike

Mike — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 23:03:11 +0000

Mikeel - the smart money is that the Democrats will pick up senate and house seats. I agree with that - there are several GOP house seats that will change hands,more than making up for any the GOP wins.

By: Aiken Blue

Aiken Blue — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 22:36:12 +0000

Please, we cannot make the same mistakes again. We can’t have the GOP’s broken ways run the country and ruin the world. Obama is the guy who can challenge them and change them. Please vote for Obama, visit WHYOBAMA08.ORG!!

By: mikeel

mikeel — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 22:06:41 +0000

I think the GOP will wind up gaining a handful of House seats–The GOP field is stronger than in 2006, but the Democaratic field isn’t. I’d say the Republicans gain about 5 seats.