Comments on: McCain crushes Obama in AZ, leads in FL and gains in MA (Update with new Zogby national)

By: Jaxx Raxor

Jaxx Raxor — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 12:41:28 +0000

I know that voters in Massachusetts are unhappy with Deval Patrick, but not to the point in which it would translate into a Republican takeover. The Republicans are just too weak to take advantage of the current situation, Patrick needs to be in much worse condition for the GOP to have a chance. I don’t think that Obama will spend money there just becuase a poll comes out showing him with only a 9 point lead. MA to me seems like the Democratic version of states like Mississipi and Louisana in which the opposing candidate may come close but can’t win. If Massachuettes becomes truly competive, then Obama is probably heading for a landslide defeat. That is very unlikely though, a McCain victory will be narrow while for Obama it could either be a narrow win or landslide victory thanks to the favorable Democratic climate. The fact that Obama’s support among so many subgroups in Zogby is collasping yet he is only one point behind shows how strong the winds are for Democrats. Maybe Obama will blow it, but improbable it would be in the form of a landslide in which he loses safe Democratic states. Most of the Kerry states that Obama is weak in are states that had been moving into the competive collum over the past few cycles, like Michigan. While for McCain some safe GOP states are now competive, Virginia the prime (maybe only?) example.

By: bmc

bmc — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 10:57:02 +0000

Just a thought about Massachusetts that may be playing a part here: Massachusetts voters are unhappy with their governor, Deval Patrick, and that unhappiness is transferring to Obama. Remember that Axelrod is the connection between Patrick and Obama, and the “just words; just speeches” plagiarism flap during the primary, when Obama was caught using the same speech Patrick had delivered, linked Patrick and Obama in Massachusetts voters’ minds, sowing the seeds of doubt and suspicion about Obama. With Kennedy unable to campaign hard for him, Obama may have to spend some money there. Kerry will be contesting his own challenger for his Senate seat.

By: Richard

Richard — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 03:57:01 +0000

Rasmussen seems to be a Republican-leaning firm and their numbers tend to give them a break, so I don’t put much weight to it. It’s an old political science fact that some voters are influenced by popularity; if asked a day AFTER an election they will sometimes even claim voting for the winner though they didn’t!

So Ras., USA Today [Gannett's 100! papers, conservative - so much for the great liberal bias], etc., are not to be taken too seriously. They are trying to influence voters WITH their polls!

I think the media’s triping over itself to not appear for Obama [except for the Republican Channel, Fox - which GOP nuts Murdoch and Roger Ailes run]. Simply because he is popular, draws large crowds, we are supposed to assume he’s brain-washing or something???

Like the bashing about the 200,000 that turned out for Obama in Berlin, absurd. First many were Americans living or visiting; secondly, isn’t it good Europeans like the US, buy our stuff? Haven’t we lost Billion$ because they hate Bush or Cheney? They correctly think these power mad nuts have made fighting terrorism harder, they have fed the flames by attacking Iraq.

So I hope we can get through this deep-in-BS summer, like blaming Dem’s for the energy problems [didn't the GOP control Congress for 12, yes 12, years, no energy progress at all, why not?]

Senator Obama is not perfect but I’ll take him over one of the key people to make the biggest blunder in US history any day. McCain is responsible for 34,000 US troops killed or wounded in Iraq, actually putting our people in Afgan. in MORE danger. Is McCain dangerous, a fool, or a dangerous fool?

By: Joe from NC

Joe from NC — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 03:08:47 +0000

This Zogby poll is terrible news for Obama. Now the poll was taken July 31st and August 1st, the end of a very bad week for Obama (the worst since at least April) and right when the race card comment was all over the news, but it shows how effective the Republican attack strategies are and how easy it is to fall into their traps. At the moment, I haven’t been less confident about a Democratic victory since March of 2007.
I hope Obama will work harder because of these polls, but so far, it appears that he is doing so.

By: Jaxx Raxor

Jaxx Raxor — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 23:54:45 +0000

I don’t think that Obama ever took Arizona as a target previously primarly because its McCain’s home state. That McCain is strenghening is a sign that McCain having to spend money to defend his home state is wishful thinking. In addition SUSA poll showing more GOP than Democrats doesn’t seem right. Yes, there was no contested primary in Florida but Dem numbers in the state still surged.

On MA, even if its not statistical noise and Obama is only leading in the high singles/low doubles, its not enough for Obama to get worried. McCain is probably having his best week ever since Obama became the presumtive Democratic nominee, but the margin is way to high for McCain to try to take the state. McCain just doesn’t have the money to try to test Obama in what is one of the bluest states in the country. If the polls are 6% or less in MA in fall, maybe McCain will try to spend their and expand the map in the GOP’s favor but thanks to public funding, that will mean less money in Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, and other more consistent swing states. That is why Obama is spending money in Georgia but McCain isn’t in Massachusetts.

Alabama isn’t work talking about..in Oklahoma the state is very Republican at the federal level (althrough Democrats do quite well at the state level). Only Dem. governor Brad Henry or Congressman Dan Boren could give Infoe a race. Maybe if the seat was open Rice could do ok, but not against a resonably well off incumbent in a Republican state in a presidential year.