Update: The plot thickens and polls continue to show whatever national advantage Obama had to be fading. After nearly three months without a single national poll showing him ahead, McCain led in last week’s USA Today/Gallup poll, Rasmussen’s tracking this morning and he now gains 11% in Zogby’s national poll, 42% to Obama’s 41% with 2% each for Bob Barr and Ralph Nader. (Last month, Obama led by 10%; 5% in June and 10% in May). Zogby finds Obama slipping among all demographic groups, including independents, Democrats (Obama is at a weak 74%) and women.
Zogby’s previous poll was released at a time many polls showed a mid-to-high single digit lead for Obama - leading to talk that Obama could build a solid advantage by the end of the summer. Now, the race looks to be as tight as it’s been since June 3rd. Is the Obama camp not letting its opponents’ attacks dictate the conversation, and is this not the point at which the Obama camp finally starts using footage like McCain’s “bomb Iran?” Of course, the campaign might be preparing to unveil its vice-presidential pick (perhaps Wednesday morning in Indiana…) and does not want to muddy its message.
Original post: After a first polling delivery this morning - which included McCain’s first (albeit statistically insignificant) lead in a tracking poll since Obama clinched his party’s nomination - here is a second daily update. It contains strong numbers for John McCain, and it is difficult to not have the impression that polls over the past week or two have found consistently improving state results for the Arizona Senator - look at the 7 Quinnipiac polls from swing states released in two different installments, all finding McCain improving from his June results.
None of the results listed here qualifies as bad news for Obama. The two candidates are exchanging leads in Florida, Obama certainly does not need Arizona and the Rasmussen tracking from this morning was just one national poll in dozens that have shown Obama ahead. But to Democrats who have gotten used to good presidential polling over the past few months and certainly over the past few weeks, the psychological pressure can certainly mount. Overall, these polls certainly do not suggest that Obama has lost his edge, but they do point to the fact that the presidential race is a close one and there is enough polling data to back those who say that it is quickly tightening.
August will not be decisive, and any post-Labor Day news and poll is hugely more important than anything that will happen now; but the summer often sets the tone for the fall, and with the Olympic-period lull starting in four days, it does look like we will be going into the conventions without either candidate having opened a significant lead.
On to the afternoon’s state polls:
- In Florida, McCain leads 50% to 44% in SUSA’s first poll since February.
[I am not one to look for sample problems in every poll that is released, but do note that the partisan breakdown is 43% Republican and 38% Democratic. That's an improvement for the GOP over 2004, despite the fact that most polls find a significant swing leftward and the fact that Florida Democrats have made significant registration gains. In the previous SUSA poll from Florida, Democrats had a 9% edge in the sample; the latest PPP poll had as many Democrats and Republicans and the latest ARG poll had a 5% Democratic advantage. This is not to say that SUSA's poll is wrong - I don't like cherry-picking polls, and a lot of problems have problems like this. But I am just pointing out something we should take into account when interpreting the results.]
- In Arizona, the second poll of the day confirms that McCain has less to fear than some Republicans feared. He is leading 52% to 36% (up from 9% last month) in Rasmussen’s latest poll, 57% to 38% with leaners. Obama’s favorability rating is dismal: 43% to 55%.
- In Massachusetts, Obama’s margin of victory plunges from 23% to 9% in the latest Suffolk poll as Obama is now ahead 47% to 38%.
- In Connecticut, Obama leads 51% to 36%. His favorability rating is 61%, comparing to 41% for McCain.
- In Alabama, finally, McCain crushes Obama 55% to 37%, 58% to 38% with leaners.
With two polls in one day finding McCain with very solid leads in his home state, talk of Arizona emerging as a potential battleground state should be tabled. Unless other evidence emerges to challenge these surveys, it is simply too unlikely that any candidate will lose his home state - particularly a Republican in red-leaning Arizona. Gore lost Tennessee, sure, but he also lost the rest of the South.
As for Massachusetts, longtime readers of this blog know that I have long expressed amazement at how poor Obama’s numbers have been in the Bay State. Obama struggled to open any lead at all against McCain for a while in the spring, and McCain tied him repeatedly in SUSA polls. Other polling groups found Obama significantly under-performing compared to Clinton. Polls released since Obama clinched the nomination - including Suffolk’s previous survey - found Obama rising in one of the bluest states of the country, and they better hope McCain’s gains in this poll are only statistical noise. As for Connecticut, this is a Northeastern state McCain was interested in contesting but polls have shown little opening for him, leading me to move the state to the safe Obama column in early July.
Meanwhile, two Senate polls were released from races that are at best third-tier:
- In Oklahoma, GOP Sen. Inhofe leads state Senator Andrew Rice 52% to 30% in the latest Sooner poll. In the institute’s previous poll, Inhofe led 60% to 19%.
- In Alabama, Senator Jeff Sessions crushes Vivian Davis Figures 58% to 31%, a 3% improvement since last month.
There is nothing to see in the Alabama Senate race, which has always been ranked as safe Republican in my Senate rankings. Some Democrats believe there is some potential for Andrew Rice in Oklahoma, and the DSCC did send a few paid staffers to the state a few years ago, hinting that it took such talk seriously. Yet, and though he is no beloved incumbent, Inhofe presents no obvious vulnerability and Oklahoma looks to be as red a state as any. The latest presidential poll found McCain leading by 32%, and that’s not the kind of margin a Democratic Senate challenger can easily overcome. The race is ranked 18th in my latest ratings, and it is clearly closer to the safe column than to the competitive one.
I don’t think that Obama ever took Arizona as a target previously primarly because its McCain’s home state. That McCain is strenghening is a sign that McCain having to spend money to defend his home state is wishful thinking. In addition SUSA poll showing more GOP than Democrats doesn’t seem right. Yes, there was no contested primary in Florida but Dem numbers in the state still surged.
On MA, even if its not statistical noise and Obama is only leading in the high singles/low doubles, its not enough for Obama to get worried. McCain is probably having his best week ever since Obama became the presumtive Democratic nominee, but the margin is way to high for McCain to try to take the state. McCain just doesn’t have the money to try to test Obama in what is one of the bluest states in the country. If the polls are 6% or less in MA in fall, maybe McCain will try to spend their and expand the map in the GOP’s favor but thanks to public funding, that will mean less money in Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, and other more consistent swing states. That is why Obama is spending money in Georgia but McCain isn’t in Massachusetts.
Alabama isn’t work talking about..in Oklahoma the state is very Republican at the federal level (althrough Democrats do quite well at the state level). Only Dem. governor Brad Henry or Congressman Dan Boren could give Infoe a race. Maybe if the seat was open Rice could do ok, but not against a resonably well off incumbent in a Republican state in a presidential year.
This Zogby poll is terrible news for Obama. Now the poll was taken July 31st and August 1st, the end of a very bad week for Obama (the worst since at least April) and right when the race card comment was all over the news, but it shows how effective the Republican attack strategies are and how easy it is to fall into their traps. At the moment, I haven’t been less confident about a Democratic victory since March of 2007.
I hope Obama will work harder because of these polls, but so far, it appears that he is doing so.
Rasmussen seems to be a Republican-leaning firm and their numbers tend to give them a break, so I don’t put much weight to it. It’s an old political science fact that some voters are influenced by popularity; if asked a day AFTER an election they will sometimes even claim voting for the winner though they didn’t!
So Ras., USA Today [Gannett's 100! papers, conservative - so much for the great liberal bias], etc., are not to be taken too seriously. They are trying to influence voters WITH their polls!
I think the media’s triping over itself to not appear for Obama [except for the Republican Channel, Fox - which GOP nuts Murdoch and Roger Ailes run]. Simply because he is popular, draws large crowds, we are supposed to assume he’s brain-washing or something???
Like the bashing about the 200,000 that turned out for Obama in Berlin, absurd. First many were Americans living or visiting; secondly, isn’t it good Europeans like the US, buy our stuff? Haven’t we lost Billion$ because they hate Bush or Cheney? They correctly think these power mad nuts have made fighting terrorism harder, they have fed the flames by attacking Iraq.
So I hope we can get through this deep-in-BS summer, like blaming Dem’s for the energy problems [didn't the GOP control Congress for 12, yes 12, years, no energy progress at all, why not?]
Senator Obama is not perfect but I’ll take him over one of the key people to make the biggest blunder in US history any day. McCain is responsible for 34,000 US troops killed or wounded in Iraq, actually putting our people in Afgan. in MORE danger. Is McCain dangerous, a fool, or a dangerous fool?
Just a thought about Massachusetts that may be playing a part here: Massachusetts voters are unhappy with their governor, Deval Patrick, and that unhappiness is transferring to Obama. Remember that Axelrod is the connection between Patrick and Obama, and the “just words; just speeches” plagiarism flap during the primary, when Obama was caught using the same speech Patrick had delivered, linked Patrick and Obama in Massachusetts voters’ minds, sowing the seeds of doubt and suspicion about Obama. With Kennedy unable to campaign hard for him, Obama may have to spend some money there. Kerry will be contesting his own challenger for his Senate seat.
I know that voters in Massachusetts are unhappy with Deval Patrick, but not to the point in which it would translate into a Republican takeover. The Republicans are just too weak to take advantage of the current situation, Patrick needs to be in much worse condition for the GOP to have a chance. I don’t think that Obama will spend money there just becuase a poll comes out showing him with only a 9 point lead. MA to me seems like the Democratic version of states like Mississipi and Louisana in which the opposing candidate may come close but can’t win. If Massachuettes becomes truly competive, then Obama is probably heading for a landslide defeat. That is very unlikely though, a McCain victory will be narrow while for Obama it could either be a narrow win or landslide victory thanks to the favorable Democratic climate. The fact that Obama’s support among so many subgroups in Zogby is collasping yet he is only one point behind shows how strong the winds are for Democrats. Maybe Obama will blow it, but improbable it would be in the form of a landslide in which he loses safe Democratic states. Most of the Kerry states that Obama is weak in are states that had been moving into the competive collum over the past few cycles, like Michigan. While for McCain some safe GOP states are now competive, Virginia the prime (maybe only?) example.