Campaign Diaries

We are now exactly three months from the election - and this is the 1000th post on Campaign Diaries!

Perhaps as a celebration of this anniversary of sorts, the Obama campaign followed the advice I humbly provided on Saturday and upped the volume of its attacks against John McCain by releasing a negative ad devoted to (what else) energy issues:

Using charges and imagery that Democrats and many Republicans are using across the country, Obama hits McCain for being in the pocket of the oil industry and being unwilling to take the stands America need on energy: “Every time you fill your tank, the oil companies fill their pockets. Now Big Oil’s filling John McCain’s campaign with $2 million dollars in contributions. Because instead of taxing their windfall profits to help drivers, McCain wants to give them another $4 billion in tax breaks.” The ad uses obligatory footage of McCain and George W. Bush - the Democrats’ ultimate weapon. It also leaves some time at the end to recap the main provisions of Obama’s energy plan - just as the campaign had done in last week’s “low road” ad.

The Obama campaign will attempt to continue its offensive throughout the day - but it is hard not to think that Democrats are on the defensive on this issue and that Obama’s attack ad and the roll-out of a more detailed and substantive energy plan is one attempt to reclaim the upper-hand. Ever since John McCain reversed his prior positions mid-June and announced he was in favor of offshore drilling as a means of reducing America’s dependency on foreign oil and reducing gas prices, the GOP has been blasting Democrats for their opposition to drilling. Public opinion, which until recently seemed opposed to drilling, appears to have evolved as well and polls are now showing that the electorate is on the Republicans’ side - even in Florida, giving cover to Governor Charlie Crist.

In fact, Republicans are now determined to make energy the main campaign issue. In contests like Colorado’s Senate race (Mark Udall is known as a conservationist), they believe this could alter the playing field and blunt the Democrats’ advantage. Consider for a minute how surprising this is - and how masterfully the GOP has taken the advantage on an issue that should be hurting them: the incumbent party is usually the one hurt by rising gas prices but Republicans have been able to avoid that by putting some of the blame on Congress rather on the White House and by focusing on the drilling issue.

In fact, the GOP’s House caucus staged an elaborate theatrical performance on Friday when they stayed on the floor after the House adjourned for recess to insist that Speaker Nancy Pelosi calls the House back in session to address the energy crisis. Republicans seem satisfied at the coverage they got and energized at what they see as a golden opportunity, so much so that a dozen lawmakers will come back to the House floor today - with lights still being off and no camera to record any of this - to continue pressuring Pelosi. (As First Read notes, President Bush also has the power to call Congress back in session but Republicans are not talking about that - confirming that their goal is to make congressional leaders take the blame that often falls on the President.)

As a result, Democrats have been retreating on this issue - so much so that Barack Obama announced on Friday that he would support compromise energy legislation that included offshore drilling. However, this was not a statement of support for offshore drilling. Obama merely stated that he would not oppose such a provision if that was the price he would have to pay to win support for a comprehensive energy bill that included Obama’s own priorities: “If, in order to get that passed, we have to compromise in terms of a careful, well thought-out drilling strategy that was carefully circumscribed to avoid significant environmental damage - I don’t want to be so rigid that we can’t get something done.”

It is hard for Republicans to hit Obama for flip-flopping given that McCain has also been historically opposed to drilling. But after weeks of Obama hitting McCain for supporting offshore drilling and insisting drilling would provide no held and relief, this more compromising stance does confirm that Democrats feel defensive on energy issues in general and drilling in particular and it makes Obama seem reactive to the McCain campaign. That would have been unthinkable just two weeks ago and Obama is seeking to take back control of the message with today’s attack ad.

Update: Obama’s energy speech in Lansing, Michigan this morning seeks to strike the same balance as today’s ad. Obama starts by hitting McCain for being part of the problem before outlining some of his own proposals on the issue. Note that Obama keeps up his dismissive talk of offshore drilling, confirming that his support for compromise legislation on Friday was a shift on process and not on substance:

[McCain] did little to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. He voted against increased fuel efficiency standards and opposed legislation that included tax credits for more efficient cars. He voted against renewable sources of energy. Against clean biofuels. Against solar power. Against wind power. Against an energy bill that – while far from perfect – represented the largest investment in renewable sources of energy in the history of this country. So when Senator McCain talks about the failure of politicians in Washington to do anything about our energy crisis, it’s important to remember that he’s been a part of that failure. Now, after years of inaction, and in the face of public frustration over rising gas prices, the only energy proposal he’s really promoting is more offshore drilling – a position he recently adopted that has become the centerpiece of his plan, and one that will not make a real dent in current gas prices or meet the long-term challenge of energy independence. (…)

I believe we should immediately give every working family in America a $1,000 energy rebate, and we should pay for it with part of the record profits that the oil companies are making right now. I also believe that in the short-term, as we transition to renewable energy, we can and should increase our domestic production of oil and natural gas. But we should start by telling the oil companies to drill on the 68 million acres they currently have access to but haven’t touched. And if they don’t, we should require them to give up their leases to someone who will. We should invest in the technology that can help us recover more from existing oil fields, and speed up the process of recovering oil and gas resources in shale formations. (…)

But the truth is, none of these steps will come close to seriously reducing our energy dependence in the long-term. We simply cannot pretend, as Senator McCain does, that we can drill our way out of this problem. We need a much bolder and much bigger set of solutions. We have to make a serious, nationwide commitment to developing new sources of energy and we have to do it right away.