Campaign Diaries

Rasmussen’s poll of the Alaska Senate race had the merit to bring some clarity to the race. Mark Begich led by double-digits against all three Republicans who have a chance at winning the August 26th primary, confirming that the GOP’s hopes of keeping this seat rest in getting Ted Stevens to win the primary and then convincing him to withdraw from the race to replace his name on the ballot (background here).

Trouble is that Stevens is showing no inclination to participate in any such plan. Appearing in front of a DC judge, Stevens pleaded not guilty and asked for an expedited trial that could render a decision before the election. Yesterday, a judge agreed to set a tentative start date to the trial on September 24th in order to come to a verdict before November 4th.

Thus, Stevens intends to fight on and clearly has no intention whatsoever of dropping out of the race - at least until the verdict is delivered. But by the time the court rules in October, it will be too late for the state party to replace Stevens’s name. In other words, the scenario under which Stevens wins the primary and then allows the GOP to replace him is becoming increasingly unlikely. (By the way, Lieutenant Governor Steve Parnell ruled out jumping from the House to the Senate race yesterday and it’s not like the list of high-profile Republicans who could put a strong campaign in a matter of weeks is that long.)

What this means is that Mark Begich is likely to face one of the six Republicans whose name is currently on the ballot. He will be an overwhelming favorite against anyone not named Stevens by virtue of the difference of caliber, name recognition and political experience. As for Stevens, his bet is that he will be ruled innocent before the election and thus get a big enough boost to carry him to victory. Perhaps. But Stevens’s strategy has got to be worrisome to Republicans: starting on September 24th and for a significant portion of October, the incumbent will be busy defending himself in the courthouse rather than on the campaign trail. The Alaska press will cover the story daily for weeks this fall - all of it in a context of widespread Republican corruption in the state.

The verdict will be rendered in the homestretch of fall campaigning, potentially impacting not only the Senate race but the House and presidential race as well. Considering that Stevens’ ethical problems reflect that of his entire party in Alaska, coverage of his alleged misconduct and the potential of a guilty verdict could go a long way towards costing McCain the state’s three electoral votes. Even if the ruling is not guilty, could it really save Stevens’ when Begich is a strong candidate on his own right who was already ahead in most polls before Tuesday’s indictment?

Meanwhile, in Oregon, Gordon Smith continues his strategy of touting his ties with prominent Democrats. First, he featured the endorsement of two Democratic state lawmakers. Then came this stunning ads in which the Republican Senator hugged Barack Obama as tightly as possible. This week, he released an ad portraying his work not only with Obama but also with 2004 nominee John Kerry:

Not only does Smith portray himself as a bipartisan (”I choose to reach across the aisle with John Kerry to protect homeowners from foreclosure, with Barack Obama for better gas mileage”) but he also proceeds to hit his party’s leader (“And when President Bush tried to cut Medicaid, the Oregon health plan, I said no”). The ad could have been run by a Democrat seeking to distinguish himself in his party’s primary by highlighting his opposition to the president and his proximity with national figures.

Smith has a target on his back largely due to the dismal political environment for Republicans. To that extent, it is understandable that he would seek to portray himself as a maverick who is not beholden to his party label. Smith needs to be distance himself from his party, portray himself as a different type of Republican, in order to survive. At the same time, this will make Smith run on Merkley’s territory and voters often prefer the original to the copy. If even Smith is touting the importance of working with Obama, why wouldn’t voters just turn to the candidate who has actually been endorsed by Obama and who is likely to appear with him at campaign events if Obama travels to the state this fall?

Politico highlights another potential problem for Smith - the charge of opportunism. Here’s what Smith had to say about Kerry in 2004: “I’ve often said it’s not John Kerry’s fault that he looks French, but it is his fault that he wants to pursue policies that have us act like the French.” Smith also said: “John Kerry to me represents socialism.”

Gordon Smith’s ads are even more remarkable when we consider that Oregon is a swing state, and one the McCain camp has not entirely given up. Gore and Kerry had to fight to win this state, and while polls have shown Obama expending his lead the margins sometimes remain close. But Smith’s ads might as well be Obama spots, as the story of Smith and Obama cooperating on a bill highlights the former’s bipartisan creds just as much as it does Obama’s. Smith’s ads are doing just as much for his own re-election campaign than for Obama’s bid to keep the state’s electoral votes in the Democratic column.