Comments on: Red state strategy: Obama’s big FL investment, McCain narrowly ahead in AK, NC, MO

By: dannity

dannity — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 16:26:02 +0000

Fair question Joe. I’ve been calling this week, “Red Meat Week” for John McCain. After Obama’s trip abroad, McCain felt he needed to do something, and do it quickly to get his voters interested and involved.

Another thing to look at is that pollsters are tracking a shift in partisan voter id, with fewer people identifying themselves as Democrats in July than in June. Democrats still have a large partisan advantage over Republicans, but we’re seeing the shakeout of the people that crossed over to participate in the nomination process move back into the independent pool. This will also account for Obama’s growing consolidation among self-identified Democratic voters.

By: Joe from NC

Joe from NC — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 04:20:40 +0000

Sorry, but I forgot to say this. I wonder if McCain’s negative ads are partially responsible for Obama’s gains among Democrats.

By: Joe from NC

Joe from NC — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 04:14:15 +0000

One other thing about the MO poll, Obama is doing 7 points better with Democrats now than he was in surveyusa’s last poll of the state. I’ve seen this in several other state polls; to me it suggests that the PUMA crowd isn’t as strong as they want us to think.
Also, Obama does a bit better with Independents in this poll than in the last one, but he still is behind by about 20 pts. This troubles me a lot because much of Obama’s strategy has been to appeal to independents.

By: Joe from NC

Joe from NC — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 01:51:46 +0000

Jaxx is right, many Hillary supporters in my state (including my own grandmother- I’m working on her but I’m not getting very far) just do not trust Obama. This coupled with our bible belt location and the large number of very rich people in places like Cary will likely prevent Obama from winning NC. However, I agree that advertising here was a smart move on Obama’s part.

As for MO, I think that the lukewarm support McCain has from the religious right will hurt him there. The city of Springfield is the headquarters of the extremely conservative Assemblies of God, a pentacostal denomination, and the city’s politics are dominated by these religious leaders. If they can’t get out the vote as effectively as they did in 2004, MO will be much closer.

By: Jim W

Jim W — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 00:32:54 +0000

I think NC will be won by McCain this year. Deep down North Carolinians do not trust Obama on cultural issues such as guns and gays. To also add on to jaxx raxor’s point, NC prefers the generation of John McCain over our Generation X candidate. NC has always preferred a little gray hair over youth (the one notable exception, of course, is John Edwards in 1998, but he was running against a crazy whack conservative named Lauch Faircloth).

NC has a lot of Kentucky in it, too. Tobacco is still an issue that hurt the Dems in our state.

By: Jaxx Raxor

Jaxx Raxor — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 00:20:00 +0000

Taniel you are right about Florida. It is true that Obama’s spending is helping him alot in a state that was formely very weak to him, but Florida has for some time now been a swing state, and it seems that McCain is making a fatal mistake by assuming its safe state for him. If Obama can remove doubts about himself in Florida, that will give Obama the advantage in terms of having a wide playing field across the electoral map, having Florida or Ohio to get him to the 270 number (or as insurance in case he loses Michigan) or he could take other states like Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, or go even more orthodox with states like Virginia, North Dakota, and Montana.

I do agree that Obama definitly has a cealing, at least in North Carolina. Many Hillary supporters in that state just refuse to help Obama, and that is keeping him from getting the last 2 or so percentage points to get a win in the state. I believe that McCain will win NC narrowly unless Bob Barr does unexpectably well, as I’m convinced now that no amount of spending is going to help Obama win the state. Maybe in 2012…

Alaska and Missouri are different because racial politics are not as much of an issue. That McCain is still ahead in Alaska despite Obama’s spending is good for McCain, but I suspect that it will start to get closer again once September rolls around. If McCain totally ignores the state, then he really is in danger of losing it (althrough in my opinon North Dakota is the state most likely to fall to Obama if McCain ignores spending there). The best firewall for Obama in Alaska is the high support for gas drilling there. If that is as important in November as it is in August, then there is probably nothing Obama can do, however if the subject changes (like Iraq or more likely Afghanistan) then Obama has a chance to take the state.

Missouri is really about the balance between the urban parts (with St. Louis being a important Democratic battle ground) and the rest of the state, which is very rural and very Republican. McCain is doing well in the state now because he is spending more money in the state than Obama is (althrough that may have changed more recently). Obama can definitly win the state. His victory over Clinton in the primary (in which he won heavily populated sliver of eastern Missouri, but lost rest of the state handily). The problem of course is that the rural parts of the state are much more populous in voters in the general election than they are in a Democratic primary, and Obama will have a tough time if he doesn’t sofen his weakness in the rural parts of the state. Of course, McCain is spending alot of money in Missouri because its pretty key part to him winning, while Obama doesn’t need the state, and perhaps prefers to look elsewhere like Virginia or Colorado.

Also, one thing about Arizona. If the GOP nominee was not from Arizona, it would be a lean GOP/toss-up state. Despite McCain’s horrible numbers as a favorite son, Obama doesn’t seem enthusatic about challanging McCain on his home turf, and is therefore not spending any money there. I think McCain will need to show extreme weakness in Arizona (like maybe having a 5 point lead or less) and consistenly have a extreme weakness for Obama to decide it is worth trying to take Arizona. While Obama does have alot of money, it is not unlimited and he needs to choose his targets where it will help him the most.