Two days ago, I moved Florida out of the lean McCain column for the first time. The Sunshine state was one battleground state from 2000 and 2004 in which McCain was believed to have a clear edge, especially with Obama’s nomination. Polls taken throughout the spring (for example this April Quinnipiac poll) showed the Republican crushing the Illinois Senator, often by double-digits. Yet, Obama has pulled even with McCain in most recent polls.
With the first comprehensive reports of where the two candidates are spending their money and running their ads, we are starting to get a better idea of why that is: McCain is not running ads on network television in Florida! The closest state of the 2000 election has been left off of the list of 11 states which the campaign is targeting - a list that does include Virginia and Missouri, two other red states Republicans sometimes suggest are not endangered. On the other hand, Obama is investing a lot of money in the state: Over the past 2 months, the Democrat has ran $5 million worth of advertisement in Florida!
That time of spending discrepancy is bound to impact results. It might not guarantee a candidate a win, but it goes a long way towards blunting some of his weaknesses. The Miami Herald quotes a GOP operative as saying that, “The fact that he’s spent $5 million and we’re still ahead is telling.” Unfortunately, that does not reflect the reality that Florida is one of the only states in which polling numbers have significantly changed over the past few months - in Obama’s direction.
That McCain is not including Florida in its advertising plan could come back to haunt him. There might be an argument to be made that NC or MT cannot decide the election because other states will have already fallen anyway if Obama wins those. The same cannot be said of Florida - particularly if only one candidate is playing there.
And as I have noted in the past, the Democrat is also gaining an advantage in the organizational department, as Obama is rapidly opening offices statewide. Given that Obama has managed to create paths to 270 electoral votes that were not available for Kerry, it is good news for him that he is still pursuing (Gore’s) Florida and (Kerry’s) Ohio. The clear benefits of having as big a budget as he does - particularly during these summer months where experimentation is allowed.
With Florida moving to the toss-up column, that left five states in the lean McCain column: Alaska, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and North Dakota. Except for Missouri, these states are traditionally Republican states in which the Obama campaign is attempting an unlikely take-over coup (and even MO was considered to have become more reliably Republican in the 2004 election and its aftermath). Except for Missouri, all belong exclusively to Obama right now, as the Democrat is heavily spending there and McCain is running no ads.
Yesterday, a Rasmussen poll from Montana confirmed that these lean McCain race are truly in contention. And all 4 of today’s state polls come from this group of state, finding McCain narrowly ahead:
- In North Carolina, Research 2000’s latest poll has McCain leading 47% to 43% - just within the margin of error. Among white voters, McCain has a big lead that is protecting him (64% to 26%). The previous poll had McCain leading by 9% but was taken late April so hardly counts as a trendline.
- In Alaska, Rasmussen has McCain holding on to his lead from mid-July. He is now ahead 44% to 39%, 48% to 42% when leaners are included.
- Another poll from Alaska was released today by Ivan Moore. The pollster went in the field on July 18-22, and again over the past two days to test the Senate race post-Stevens’ indictment. It only tested the presidential race in the first period, finding McCain ahead within the MoE, 47% to 44%. (I will blog about the Senate results later.)
- In Missouri, finally, SUSA’s first state poll in more than two weeks has McCain holding on to a 49% to 44% lead. McCain led by 7% in June. (Confirming that Democrats dodged a bullet by defeating a law that would have required voters to bring a photo ID, respondents with such a photo ID favor McCain by 25%).
- Meanwhile, BRC conducted a large poll in Arizona’s Maricopa County, one of the biggest counties in America that contains more than half of Arizona’s electorate. Bush won this county by 15% on his way to winning the state by 11%. Confirming that McCain isn’t as safe in his home state as we would assume, this poll has him leading by 5% only.
What the GOP operative told the Miami Herald does apply here: the Obama campaign is massively outspending the McCain camp in Alaska and North Carolina but the Arizona Senator is still ahead and these numbers have not moved for weeks. On the other hand, it is doubtful that Obama could have survived at these levels in states like North Carolina, Alaska and Montana if he did not have the airwaves all to himself. As the general election is getting the electorate polarized, it would have been expected that voters return to their camps but Obama’s ads are giving him a chance to stay competitive and see what happens in the fall.
The best news for McCain among these 3 polls is undoubtedly Missouri, a must-win state for McCain. The latest polls from the state had Obama up 5% and McCain up 5%… Another good news for McCain is the profound racial polarization in North Carolina. Obama will have trouble getting up to the high 40s without a substantial portion of the white vote. He needs to improve on Kerry’s 27%, and polls are not showing him doing that. Kerry lost the state by 13%; Obama cannot climb that big a margin on the strength of increased black turnout alone.
Taniel you are right about Florida. It is true that Obama’s spending is helping him alot in a state that was formely very weak to him, but Florida has for some time now been a swing state, and it seems that McCain is making a fatal mistake by assuming its safe state for him. If Obama can remove doubts about himself in Florida, that will give Obama the advantage in terms of having a wide playing field across the electoral map, having Florida or Ohio to get him to the 270 number (or as insurance in case he loses Michigan) or he could take other states like Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, or go even more orthodox with states like Virginia, North Dakota, and Montana.
I do agree that Obama definitly has a cealing, at least in North Carolina. Many Hillary supporters in that state just refuse to help Obama, and that is keeping him from getting the last 2 or so percentage points to get a win in the state. I believe that McCain will win NC narrowly unless Bob Barr does unexpectably well, as I’m convinced now that no amount of spending is going to help Obama win the state. Maybe in 2012…
Alaska and Missouri are different because racial politics are not as much of an issue. That McCain is still ahead in Alaska despite Obama’s spending is good for McCain, but I suspect that it will start to get closer again once September rolls around. If McCain totally ignores the state, then he really is in danger of losing it (althrough in my opinon North Dakota is the state most likely to fall to Obama if McCain ignores spending there). The best firewall for Obama in Alaska is the high support for gas drilling there. If that is as important in November as it is in August, then there is probably nothing Obama can do, however if the subject changes (like Iraq or more likely Afghanistan) then Obama has a chance to take the state.
Missouri is really about the balance between the urban parts (with St. Louis being a important Democratic battle ground) and the rest of the state, which is very rural and very Republican. McCain is doing well in the state now because he is spending more money in the state than Obama is (althrough that may have changed more recently). Obama can definitly win the state. His victory over Clinton in the primary (in which he won heavily populated sliver of eastern Missouri, but lost rest of the state handily). The problem of course is that the rural parts of the state are much more populous in voters in the general election than they are in a Democratic primary, and Obama will have a tough time if he doesn’t sofen his weakness in the rural parts of the state. Of course, McCain is spending alot of money in Missouri because its pretty key part to him winning, while Obama doesn’t need the state, and perhaps prefers to look elsewhere like Virginia or Colorado.
Also, one thing about Arizona. If the GOP nominee was not from Arizona, it would be a lean GOP/toss-up state. Despite McCain’s horrible numbers as a favorite son, Obama doesn’t seem enthusatic about challanging McCain on his home turf, and is therefore not spending any money there. I think McCain will need to show extreme weakness in Arizona (like maybe having a 5 point lead or less) and consistenly have a extreme weakness for Obama to decide it is worth trying to take Arizona. While Obama does have alot of money, it is not unlimited and he needs to choose his targets where it will help him the most.
I think NC will be won by McCain this year. Deep down North Carolinians do not trust Obama on cultural issues such as guns and gays. To also add on to jaxx raxor’s point, NC prefers the generation of John McCain over our Generation X candidate. NC has always preferred a little gray hair over youth (the one notable exception, of course, is John Edwards in 1998, but he was running against a crazy whack conservative named Lauch Faircloth).
NC has a lot of Kentucky in it, too. Tobacco is still an issue that hurt the Dems in our state.
Jaxx is right, many Hillary supporters in my state (including my own grandmother- I’m working on her but I’m not getting very far) just do not trust Obama. This coupled with our bible belt location and the large number of very rich people in places like Cary will likely prevent Obama from winning NC. However, I agree that advertising here was a smart move on Obama’s part.
As for MO, I think that the lukewarm support McCain has from the religious right will hurt him there. The city of Springfield is the headquarters of the extremely conservative Assemblies of God, a pentacostal denomination, and the city’s politics are dominated by these religious leaders. If they can’t get out the vote as effectively as they did in 2004, MO will be much closer.
One other thing about the MO poll, Obama is doing 7 points better with Democrats now than he was in surveyusa’s last poll of the state. I’ve seen this in several other state polls; to me it suggests that the PUMA crowd isn’t as strong as they want us to think.
Also, Obama does a bit better with Independents in this poll than in the last one, but he still is behind by about 20 pts. This troubles me a lot because much of Obama’s strategy has been to appeal to independents.
Sorry, but I forgot to say this. I wonder if McCain’s negative ads are partially responsible for Obama’s gains among Democrats.
Fair question Joe. I’ve been calling this week, “Red Meat Week” for John McCain. After Obama’s trip abroad, McCain felt he needed to do something, and do it quickly to get his voters interested and involved.
Another thing to look at is that pollsters are tracking a shift in partisan voter id, with fewer people identifying themselves as Democrats in July than in June. Democrats still have a large partisan advantage over Republicans, but we’re seeing the shakeout of the people that crossed over to participate in the nomination process move back into the independent pool. This will also account for Obama’s growing consolidation among self-identified Democratic voters.