Campaign Diaries

In mid-July, news emerged that the DSCC had reserved up to $6 million of air time in North Carolina from September onward, in an effort to make Senator Dole the Democrats’ 9th target. We soon learned that a similar investment was being made in Maine and that the DSCC had already started airing ads in Mississippi on behalf of Ronnie Musgrove. Now, it appears that the DSCC is not even waiting for the fall in North Carolina, as it bought $400,000 worth of advertising to be spent over 11 days (from today to August 11th):

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ByDv0hTP4Jc"]

The ad notes that an “effectiveness ranking” had placed Dole in 93rd position. “Elizabeth Dole, after 40 years in Washington, not as effective as you might think,” is the ad’s tag line: “She can’t fix gas prices from 93rd place, or create jobs, and she sure hasn’t fixed immigration from 93rd place.” The ad is a bit misleading: Dole might have been in D.C for a long time, but she has only been in the Senate for 6 years - and seniority counts for a lot when we are talking about legislative power. And it is not necessarily a convincing argument that a new Senator with even less seniority would yield more power in the chamber.

On the other hand, NC remains a conservative-leaning state and Dole’s profile is not that of an extremist, so Democrats have to hit Dole on process issues rather than try to connect her to Bush or portray her as out-of-touch. Dole remains vulnerable, as was demonstrated by the long series of polls released throughout May finding a toss-up race between Dole and Kay Hagan. It took Dole’s running a wave of ads for her to get back on top. The Democrats’ gambit here is that an incumbent who needs a big media buy to reclaim the lead is weak and can just as easily lose it back. Live by ads, die by ads - that’s why the DSCC is spending so much money here.

The same is true in OR. The DSCC is answering Gordon Smith’s latest ad (which I described this morning) with an attack ad that is devoted to (what else) energy issues. Note that the situation is similar to that in Mississippi: the incumbent has a lot of cash and is already running ads, whereas Merkley has financial difficulties.

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SSdQKPnsls]

“The oil and gas industry has given Gordon Smith’s campaign nearly three hundred thousand dollars,” claims the ad, exhibiting these proofs of Smith’s ties “to big oil.” The ad’s visuals are used by countless other candidates from both parties right now, from the very top (McCain against Obama) to House races (an independent group against Musgrave), to suggest that the price of oil is rising because of a candidate’s actions or inaction. The goal is to prevent Smith for accumulating good will among Democrats and independents with his maverick-looking ads.

Meanwhile, the day’s down-the-ballot polls include Ivan Moore’s latest delivery from Alaska, which was in the field on Wednesday and Thursday - in the immediate aftermath of Stevens’ indictment:

• Begich now leads by a staggering 56% to 35%. In Ivan Moore’s July 22nd poll, Begich was already ahead, 51% to 43%. Moore also polled the GOP primary, where Stevens still appears solid, leading against real estate developer Cuddy 59% to 19% (Stevens got 70% a week prior). Wealthy businessman Vickers does not (yet) get much support.

• In North Carolina’s Senate race, Research 2000’s latest poll finds Elizabeth Dole leading 50% to 42%. The previous poll of the race was taken in late April, before the Hagan bounce of early May, so it is not a useful trendline point.

• In the Texas Senate race, Senator Cornyn is now ahead 47% to 37% in Rasmussen’s latest poll, 50% to 39% when leaners are included. In early July, he was ahead by 13% and 17% in June - though the margin was only 4% in May (other polling institutes found a similarly tight margin at the time).

• In MO-06, Rep. Sam Graves has lost his lead against Kay Barnes and is now only ahead 48% to 44% in SUSA’s latest poll. In May, Graves led by 10%.

• Finally, SUSA also polled Missouri’s gubernatorial race and finds the race tightening as we approach the GOP primary. Jay Nixon leads Kenny Hulshof 48% to 42% and Sarah Steelman 50% to 41%. In May, he led by 24% and 25% respectively.

The Moore poll finds Stevens in even worse shape than yesterday’s Rasmussen poll; but it suggests that Stevens has a chance to win the primary… so the main hurdle for the GOP will be convincing him to drop out (as I explain in my morning analysis). With Alaska slowly joining the lean take-over column, it is that much more urgent for the GOP to defend their second-tier seats - starting with TX and NC. It might be too late for the NRSC to not have to invest in the latter, but it simply cannot afford to see the Texas race become competitive: it does not have the resources to help Cornyn while also defending seats like MS, OR and MN, NH and CO.

As for the MO-06 race, it promises to be one of the fall’s hot spots. Last time we checked in, Graves was airing gay-baiting ads hitting Barnes’s “San Fransisco values.” Barnes replied with a strongly-worded response. Two months later, the race has tightened in the Democrat’s favor and the DCCC included this race in the list of districts it will air ads this fall. MO-06 is making its way towards the toss-up column.