Comments on: Q-Pac polls from the “Big Three:” Obama ahead, losing ground http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/31/q-pac-polls-from-the-big-three-obama-ahead-losing-ground/ Obsessive political analysis Sat, 20 Mar 2010 18:30:42 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Guy http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/31/q-pac-polls-from-the-big-three-obama-ahead-losing-ground/comment-page-1/#comment-2960 Guy Thu, 31 Jul 2008 23:27:43 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1415#comment-2960 Joe - if you are right Obama is under performing in NE Ohio then that shows he has room to grow his lead as this Democratic area returns to its roots. Joe - if you are right Obama is under performing in NE Ohio then that shows he has room to grow his lead as this Democratic area returns to its roots.

]]> By: Joe from NC http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/31/q-pac-polls-from-the-big-three-obama-ahead-losing-ground/comment-page-1/#comment-2959 Joe from NC Thu, 31 Jul 2008 18:39:55 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1415#comment-2959 Taniel and Jaxx, I know Philly brings the liberal, cosmopolitan east-coast culture to PA, but rural central PA is extremely conservative aside from State College which is of course a college town. Of course, you all are right, central PA is not populous enough to cancel out Philly. A few thoughts on the more detailed parts of the polls: I think its very important that Obama is doing better with Ohio dems. That shows that the PUMA movement isn't as strong as they would like us to think. If you look at the different regions of the state, Obama is leading in every region of Ohio except west central (which is the most republican part of the state), but he is vastly underperforming in the northeastern part of the state, and that is not good for him. Also, it's interesting that Obama is leading in the southwestern part of the state because Cincinnati usually votes republican. (the area even voted against Ted Strickland in 2006). Taniel and Jaxx, I know Philly brings the liberal, cosmopolitan east-coast culture to PA, but rural central PA is extremely conservative aside from State College which is of course a college town. Of course, you all are right, central PA is not populous enough to cancel out Philly.
A few thoughts on the more detailed parts of the polls:
I think its very important that Obama is doing better with Ohio dems. That shows that the PUMA movement isn’t as strong as they would like us to think.
If you look at the different regions of the state, Obama is leading in every region of Ohio except west central (which is the most republican part of the state), but he is vastly underperforming in the northeastern part of the state, and that is not good for him. Also, it’s interesting that Obama is leading in the southwestern part of the state because Cincinnati usually votes republican. (the area even voted against Ted Strickland in 2006).

]]> By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/31/q-pac-polls-from-the-big-three-obama-ahead-losing-ground/comment-page-1/#comment-2961 Jaxx Raxor Thu, 31 Jul 2008 17:57:16 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1415#comment-2961 Mike I agree with you that PPP's poll is suspect as this is the first time that a significant lead has come about. However, NC is very Democratic at the state level and its possible that the State is realingined back into its NC Democratic roots, especially with Obama making the state much more competive on the Federal level than usual. And Joe Taniel is right: Philidelphia and to a lesser extent it's suburbs are heavily populated and very liberal, which helps to give PA a Democratic bent despite the rest of the state being moderate to very conservative. Ohio doesn't have such a huge and populated liberal bastion, and therefore its less Democratic. On Quinnipacs polls on Obama in swing states, that he is ahead in all of them is important, despite the margin increasing. The election is based on the electoral college, and not the popular vote, and because of this Obama could win the popular vote by only 3 points but get a convincing win in the electoral college if he was to win most of the tossup states, even by narrow margins. I also agree that Missisipi is a lost cause. That state has more blacks than any other but its still the minority, and the whites in Missisipi are nearly Republican as blacks are Democratic, so there is no way Obama can win this state. The only traditional Southern state besides Virginia that Obama could possibly take is Georgia, and that counts alot on Bob Barr doing well and taking votes away from McCain. If McCain picks Mitt Rommney as his running mate, it would probably make Obama's job easier in Georgia as many evangelicals despise Rommny and if they don't stay home on election day, they will at least refuse to volunteer for McCain. Mike I agree with you that PPP’s poll is suspect as this is the first time that a significant lead has come about. However, NC is very Democratic at the state level and its possible that the State is realingined back into its NC Democratic roots, especially with Obama making the state much more competive on the Federal level than usual.

And Joe Taniel is right: Philidelphia and to a lesser extent it’s suburbs are heavily populated and very liberal, which helps to give PA a Democratic bent despite the rest of the state being moderate to very conservative. Ohio doesn’t have such a huge and populated liberal bastion, and therefore its less Democratic.

On Quinnipacs polls on Obama in swing states, that he is ahead in all of them is important, despite the margin increasing. The election is based on the electoral college, and not the popular vote, and because of this Obama could win the popular vote by only 3 points but get a convincing win in the electoral college if he was to win most of the tossup states, even by narrow margins.
I also agree that Missisipi is a lost cause. That state has more blacks than any other but its still the minority, and the whites in Missisipi are nearly Republican as blacks are Democratic, so there is no way Obama can win this state. The only traditional Southern state besides Virginia that Obama could possibly take is Georgia, and that counts alot on Bob Barr doing well and taking votes away from McCain. If McCain picks Mitt Rommney as his running mate, it would probably make Obama’s job easier in Georgia as many evangelicals despise Rommny and if they don’t stay home on election day, they will at least refuse to volunteer for McCain.

]]> By: Taniel http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/31/q-pac-polls-from-the-big-three-obama-ahead-losing-ground/comment-page-1/#comment-2964 Taniel Thu, 31 Jul 2008 15:19:54 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1415#comment-2964 Joe, PA does have Philadelphia and its suburbs, which have their own politics. The results in 2000 between the two states were 8% apart. In 2004, only 4% but still. Joe,
PA does have Philadelphia and its suburbs, which have their own politics. The results in 2000 between the two states were 8% apart. In 2004, only 4% but still.

]]> By: Joe from NC http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/31/q-pac-polls-from-the-big-three-obama-ahead-losing-ground/comment-page-1/#comment-2963 Joe from NC Thu, 31 Jul 2008 15:17:52 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1415#comment-2963 I am still surprised by the fact that PA's and OH's results are so different because the states' politics are very similar. Philadelphia is more liberal than anywhere in Ohio, but rural central PA is more conservative than anywhere in OH. Both states are full of smaller working class industrial towns. I am still surprised by the fact that PA’s and OH’s results are so different because the states’ politics are very similar. Philadelphia is more liberal than anywhere in Ohio, but rural central PA is more conservative than anywhere in OH. Both states are full of smaller working class industrial towns.

]]> By: Mike http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/31/q-pac-polls-from-the-big-three-obama-ahead-losing-ground/comment-page-1/#comment-2962 Mike Thu, 31 Jul 2008 15:08:02 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1415#comment-2962 I find the NC gubernatorial poll suspect since Purdue and McCrory have been so close in many polls for her to pull out a 9% lead when not much has happened in the past few weeks is unlikely. Also I see the level of undecideds/others is around 20% - higher than expected. McCrory will easily get 40%+ of the vote - it is inconceivable he would be around the high 30's. I find the NC gubernatorial poll suspect since Purdue and McCrory have been so close in many polls for her to pull out a 9% lead when not much has happened in the past few weeks is unlikely. Also I see the level of undecideds/others is around 20% - higher than expected. McCrory will easily get 40%+ of the vote - it is inconceivable he would be around the high 30’s.

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