Comments on: Senate shocker: Ted Stevens indicted, throws state race into chaos

By: Taniel

Taniel — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 03:22:47 +0000

Jaxx, I did not say Young would be safe but not “in as much trouble.” I do stand by that. It’s never easy to defeat an incumbent and even Parnell is only leading by 3% in this poll.

And that Stevens/Parnell deal could be interesting… but I’m not sure how workable it is. Depending on how bad it gets for Stevens, he might have no chance in the GOP primary.

By: Jim W

Jim W — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 23:38:02 +0000

Guy,

You are exactly right. Palin’s credibility, much like all Alaskan Gopers, is shot. Hard to believe that Lisa Murkowski is the most credible GOPer right now.

By: Guy

Guy — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 23:18:48 +0000

Remember Palin is now under an ethics cloud related to the firing of a state employee. So her approval ratings may start to come down. Talk of her as McCain’s VP has gone very quiet as of late.

By: Jaxx Raxor

Jaxx Raxor — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 23:11:32 +0000

I was thinking of another scenario, that Stevens retires and then Palin names a replacement who would then run for a full term. Then I remembered that Alaska is one of the few states in which the Governor is not allowed to choose a replacement, so that is out of the window.

Taniel, if a agreement was reached in advance, it could work. If Stevens decided to quit so that his party would have a better chance of holding onto his seat, he would make a deal with Parnell in that Stevens wins the primay but then withdrawls, leading to the party putting Parnell in. Pretty far-fetched, but no matter how powerful Stevens is, the GOP will throw him under the bus and try to force him to not run for re-election, either through resigation or through him withdrawing after the GOP primary. That could lead to Parnell coming in.

Also Taniel I’m not sure that Young would be safe if Parnell dropped out of the House primary. Young is very unpopular in Alaska now, and I’m pretty sure that all or nearly all of Parnells support will go to the third candidate. It would only be a little easier for Young, as he is like Palins predessor (Murkoski?) in that he would probably get into 3rd place in a three way primary anyway.

By: Jim W

Jim W — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 20:49:18 +0000

I think this indictment has a net positive effect on Begich. An unindicted Stevens is the strongest GOP candidate. Since he’s indicted, he’s definitely weaker. Stevens is also stubborn, and he won’t let go until he’s forced to do so. He will win the primary, and then will fight like hell to win the election. Begich will win.

Begich is also helped out by Obama. Obama is the first Dem since LBJ who will cause Alaska to be in play during the national election.

By: Taniel

Taniel — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 20:36:09 +0000

I think it is overstating it, Jaxx, to say that Young would be in as much trouble if Parnell withdrew. Parnell has the support of Club for Growth and he is a high-profile name. The third candidate is barely a blip in polling for now (she got 2% in a poll a few weeks ago). And the fact is that Stevens can’t be replaced until AFTER the primary, so I can’t imagine Parnell droping out of the House race just based on that. So the only way he ends up on the ballot is for him to lose against Young AND for Stevens to win and withdraw… Not the most likely of scenarios.

By: Jaxx Raxor

Jaxx Raxor — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 20:23:30 +0000

I commented on Ted Stevens on the post below, the one about VP picks. I did say that Ted Steven’s indictment actually helps the GOP beause that means a strong candiate could jump in and trounch Stevens in the primary, then benefit from the strong GOP lean of Alaska. However, I didn’t know that the filing deadline for the GOP primary has already passed. So maybe Benich is in good shape after all, as some people have said Benich is probably the strongest Democrat in the state, and the GOP challangers are all weak and little known. If one of the challangers win this race will probably become a likely democratic win; grouped with Virginia and New Mexico. So I guess the best hope is the GOP as you say Taniel is for Stevens to win the GOP primary then drop out and allow the Republicans to come back in. Maybe in that case they could try to get Lt. Parnell to step, because there is another anti-Young Republican in the House GOP primary and that person would likely beat Young easily and be favored against Berkowitz. This would free Parnell to enter the Senate Race, in which he would likely be the strongest Republican candiate in Alaska, probably second only to the Governor herself (but there is little chance she will leave her post after only 2 years). Of course if they don’t get Parnell I don’t know who the GOP would get. I don’t know enough about Alaskan politics to know. But again, this may be better for Benich then I thought.

On how this impacts the Presidental race, I say it probably won’t. I’m pretty sure that Alaskans are the type to do ticket splitting, and as dismal as the GOP is, McCain has proven that he runs way ahead of his party, and this will likely prove good for him in Alaska. In fact, the energy issues of offshore drilling and ANWR are probably enough to deny Obama a win in the state. If Obama does pull off a massive upset and wins Alaska, in my opinion it will only be because Obama spent alot of time in the state and McCain took the state for granted and ignored. If McCain puts in real spending in Alaska, Obama can’t win in the state. On the other hand, McCain spending in Alaska is spending that isn’t somewhere else like Ohio or Colorado….

By: Tatiana

Tatiana — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 20:15:46 +0000

Wow! Even if another Republican wins this I’ll be delighted Stevens is gone.