Comments on: McCain grabs national lead for the first time in three months

By: Guy

Guy — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 23:23:20 +0000

Having three North Carolinian’s certainly attests to the changing demographics of the state since I am originally from the UK and my wife is from Ohio. NC is becoming much more Democratic.

I notice that the 3 day rolling average Gallup oll for today shows a 6% Obama lead, still above where he started the overseas trip (2% lead then). Of course the news reports his lead dropping from the 9% but that was to be expected. He will be happy with 6%.

By: Joe from NC

Joe from NC — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 19:45:06 +0000

(google triangle town center)

By: Joe from NC

Joe from NC — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 19:44:43 +0000

Or get killed shopping at the mall

By: Jim W

Jim W — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 16:52:14 +0000

Taniel,

We have nothing else to do except play golf and ride horses.

By: Jaxx Raxor

Jaxx Raxor — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 16:22:16 +0000

I don’t think that the Gallup poll is exactly an outlier, although I do agree that registered voters are more important 3 or so months from election day than likely voters at this point, as many voters who are currently unlikely to vote right now could become more likely to in October when people start paying more attention to the upcoming election. I also think its strange that Obama would be losing among likely voters but winning among all registered, as this means that people who like Obama are not motivated enough to vote, and this does go against the conventional wisdom that Democrats are more excited over the election than Republicans. So that part of the poll is probably an outlier or meaningless. If McCain gets a lead in terms of registered voters then it will mean much more but it is likely to not be statistically significant because Obama has generally hovered within the margin of error for polls.

By: Joe from NC

Joe from NC — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 15:48:44 +0000

I’ve noticed the large number of north carolinians here too.
By the way I live in Raleigh.

By: Taniel

Taniel — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 15:26:41 +0000

I have long been amazed at the high concentration of North Carolina readers on this blog, and here’s further proof: all 3 commenters on this post.

By: Jim W

Jim W — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 15:12:16 +0000

Is it “Guy” from “Schley”? LOL.

By: Guy

Guy — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 13:53:54 +0000

Jim - very small world as I live 4 miles north of Hillsborough.

One interesting thing has been Obama regularly leading in polls within the margin of error. You would have expected some more bounce and yet McCain has only been in the lead once (so far).

I am also suprised by the lack of GOP ‘527 negative campaigns - nothing like the swift boat veterans (yet).

By: Jim W

Jim W — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 12:14:43 +0000

The national polls is really just a barometer for the candidates. Until we have a direct election, these polls don’t really mean anything.

I live in Hillsborough, but I went to school at UNC. When I graduated, I couldn’t afford Chapel Hill, so my choices were Durham, Northern Chatham, and Hillsborough. Hillsborough lost.