Campaign Diaries

The Olympic Games start on August 8th. That means that Barack Obama and John McCain are likely to announce their running-mates some time in the the next 10 days… While McCain could also wait after the Olympics and unveil his pick the day after Obama’s acceptance speech (which would be three days before the start of the GOP convention), most recent indicators have suggested that the Republican’s campaign is too worried about Obama monopolizing media coverage to let him have the 12 days leading up to the Olympics all to himself.

And there indeed has been a lot of speculation recently over the timing of McCain’s pick. Robert Novak reported that McCain was thinking of announcing his decision this past week to steal the headlines away from Obama’s trip, and that set off a flurry of articles (despite Novak’s quickly declaring that he felt he had been used). News that McCain’s was to travel to Louisiana last Wednesday and meet with Governor Bobby Jindal led to intense rumors, though McCain canceled his trip when bad weather ruined his plans to visit an oil rig.

Other events of this past week that have sparked a lot of talk: McCain telling an audience that they would like Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney declaring he would not seek donations to repay the $45 millions he donated to his own primary campaign, ensuring that his entourage is focused on helping the McCain campaign if he is chosen.

The most meaningful and trustworthy piece of information, however, came from McCain adviser Charlie Black, who declared that the campaign had done enough vetting for McCain to make up his mind whenever he wants to. This might be a way for the McCain campaign to remain the center of attention, but it is also correct: McCain’s announcement could come anytime in the next 10 days - and we can’t even be sure the campaign will not ultimately decide to wait for August 29th and try to cut Obama’s post-convention bounce. The latest rumor is that McCain will announce his pick… tomorrow.

The same is true of Obama’s pick. The campaign could announce at the beginning of this week to try and own the news cycle for a second week in a row; or it could leave time for the international trip to sink in and then follow it up by an announcement at the beginning of next week. At this point, the odds are that Obama will announce his pick first because McCain can afford to wait and there is an advantage to be gained from knowing your opponent’s decision before finalizing yours.

For once, there has been much less speculation about the Democratic veepstakes than the Republican one over the past week. But with the political world looking at Obama’s trip overseas, Senator Jack Reed (who was traveling with Obama, along with Chuck Hagel) attracted considerable attention. A late-comer to the Democratic veepstakes, Reed has strong national security credentials, has traveled numerous times to Iraq and voted no to the 2002 war resolution.

One drawback of picking him is that the Rhode Island Governor is a Republican. The only solution for Reed could be to withdraw his Senate candidacy (he is up for re-election this year), but that would mean he would be out of a job if Obama were to lose. Perhaps due to this possibility, Reed offered an almost Shermanesque statement yesterday: “I am interested in serving in the United States Senate and that interest trumps any consideration of serving as a vice president,” he said. When asked whether that means he would decline the position if asked, he replied: “Yeah, but I frankly I don’t expect to be offered the position.” That “but” is a key word here, as it allows Reed to say he had not thought about it if he changes his mind. Webb and Strickland used no “buts” when they ruled themselves out.

Another name that has sparked specuation on the Democratic side is Bush’s first Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman, a Republican. Politico reported that Obama’s vetters had mentioned her name in talks with members of Congress; the article quotes sources that frame a Veneman pick as a post-partisan decision (what else?) that would seduce independents. Veneman, who now serves as the executive director of UNICEF, was described by Politico as “close to food and agriculture industries” and in clashes “with farm-state Democrats and environmentalists.” In fact, North Dakota Democratic Senator Kent Conrad had called for her dismissal in 2004.

This is not the ideal profile of a Democratic vice-president, not to mention that it would be much more difficult for Obama to argue that McCain is running for Bush’s third term if he himself has picked a former member of Bush’s Cabinet. Putting the premium on post-partisanship to the exclusion of other values and indicators would make many Democrats uncomfortable with the ticket and muddy Obama’s message rather than reinforce it. In fact, CQ now notes that Veneman’s name is already attracting fire from congressional Democrats and even a Republican. [Update: The Nation quickly goes on the offensive and blasts Veneman in a long article that denounces her as a "uniquely awful choice."]

One final note on the Democratic veepstakes: Both Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell and Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill told reporters this past week that they were not being vetted and had not been asked to submit any documents. If they are telling the truth, they can both be taken out of the veepstakes; it is getting late for Obama to be asking new people to submit documents. Rendell followed up his declaration by launching into an explanation of why he should not be chosen, lauding Obama’s “good sense” for not considering him!

That gets us to the following exhaustive list of potential VP picks, divided into the top-tier, a second-tier and long shots. For Republicans, that gets us:

• Top-tier: Charlie Crist, Rob Portman, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, John Thune

• Second-tier: Carly Fiorina, Bobby Jindal, Sarah Palin, Tom Ridge, Mark Sanford, Meg Whitman

• Long shots: Michael Bloomberg, Eric Cantor, Chris Cox, Lindsay Graham, Mike Huckabee, Kay Bailey Hutchinson, John Kasich, Joe Lieberman, Beverly Perdue, Olympia Snowe

And for Democrats:

• Top-tier: Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Tim Kaine, Sam Nunn, Jack Reed, Kathleen Sebelius

• Second-tier: Bob Casey, Wesley Clark, Tom Dashle, Chuck Hagel, Ed Rendell, Bill Richardson,

• Long shots: Michael Bloomberg, Chet Edwards, Jim Jones, Claire McCaskill, Janet Napolitano, Bill Nelson, Brian Schweitzer, Ann Veneman, Mark Warner

Most recent VP headlines:

• July 18th: Is Chet Edwards joining the top-tier, and who is McCain vetting?
• July 11th: A pointer on the Democratic veeptakes
• July 7th double-shocker: Webb’s stunning exit and Crist’s marriage
• July 1st: Romney’s fundraising potential and the emergence of Thune and Portman
• All coverage for Democrats and Republicans