Campaign Diaries

Two days ago, Norm Coleman unleashed one of the cycle’s first memorable attack ads in which three men presented as “ordinary” Minnesotans accuse Al Franken of not having paid his taxes, “foul-mouthed” attacks, “tasteless, sexist jokes,” and “writing all that juicy porn.” Today, the Franken campaign responded with its own ad in which a stern-looking Franken speaks directly to the camera: “Look, I’m not proud of every joke I’ve ever told,” he says, blaming Coleman for avoiding issues and attacking him on his past as a comedian.

Franken then goes on the offensive: “I know there’s a difference between what you say as a comedian and what you do as a U.S. Senator. Norm Coleman has supported George Bush’s war in Iraq, and he’s taken millions from Big Oil and special interests. Unfortunately, that’s no joke.” And just as Democrats are doing in ads against McCain and the DSCC in ads against Gordon Smith, Franken uses footage of an embrace between Coleman and Bush:

It is striking to see Franken having to diffuse his comedian past given that he was being applauded just a few months ago for how smoothly he had transitioned from one career to the next. The main obstacle on Franken’s path was for him to be taken seriously, and he looked like he was taking care of that as well as he could. A feature profile in The Atlantic, for instance, summarized this conventional wisdom: “Franken has become a good enough campaigner that it’s easy to lose sight of just how audacious a move he’s trying to make.” It only took the GOP’s opposition research team to dig up a few episodes from Franken’s past and the Democrat now has to reintroduce himself.

These dueling ads confirm that the Minnesota Senate race has become a battle on who the election will be a referendum on. The Coleman campaign wants voters to be thinking about Franken: Sure, they no longer trust the Republican Party, but do they really want this guy to be representing them? This strategy would likely work in most election years, but Franken’s bet is that the electorate in blue-leaning Minnesota is so fed up with the GOP that Coleman’s association with President Bush is a much more negative image than anything Franken could have said or done in the past. Coleman has taken the clear advantage for now and it looks like Minnesota could be the bellwether of how dismal the 2008 environment is for Republicans.

For now, Coleman appears to be succeeding as a number of polls have found him regaining his balance and opening a clear lead against his opponent as scandals have piled on. Yesterday, a new Quinnipiac poll found a worsening situation for the Democrat:

• He now trails 53% to 38%. Last month, he trailed 51% to 41%.

Rasmussen remains the only polling group to show a tight race between Coleman and Franken. Quinnipiac, SUSA and the University of Minnesota have all found Coleman leading by double-digits. The reason for this consistent discrepancy escapes me.

In fact, the GOP enjoyed strong Senate polling in other races as well yesterday, a reminder that while the Senate map is tilted towards Democrats, only two of the DSCC’s “eight initial” targets are sure pick-ups at this point:

• In Colorado’s Senate race, Quinnipiac shows Mark Udall and Bob Schaffer tied at 44%. Last month, Udall led by 10%. This is the second poll in a row to find a tightening race, after Rasmussen’s.

• The GOP even improves its position in New Hampshire, where a Rasmussen poll finds John Sununu cutting his losing margin from 14% last month to 5% (6% with leaners), 50% to 45%.

• In New Jersey, finally, Republican candidate Zimmer stays in a position to strike but he has a lot of work to do. A poll from Monmouth University has Senator Launtenberg leading 44% to 34%.

The first two of these polls test crucial Senate races that are the core of the Democrats’ Senate offensive. That the GOP has gained considerable ground in all three is worrisome for Democrats who are hoping to significantly expand their majority. To truly contest North Carolina, Maine and Kentucky, the DSCC cannot be distracted in Colorado or New Hampshire; those two states, ranked listed as lean take-over in my latest rankings, have to already be in the blue column by the time the campaign heats up in the fall.

Mark Udall appeared to have finally found the solution in June and July, as he slowly inched ahead of Bob Schaffer, but this is now two polls in a row that have found the race getting back to a toss-up. This contest’s somewhat unexpected competitiveness suggests that voters might not trust Udall as much as Democrats would like, or Schaffer is a more popular figure than was thought. In New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen has been ahead by double-digits for months - until a poll from UNH released just two days ago found her lead down to 4%. Combined with Rasmussen’s poll, that is two polls this week that suggests New Hampshire independents are returning to a more balanced positioning.