Campaign Diaries

As we await signs of any bounce Obama might have gotten out of his trip (and as I pointed out earlier this afternoon, Rasmussen and Gallup have him inching upwards), state polls remain tight though Obama keeps a narrow advantage in a number of important surveys today:

• In New Mexico, Obama leads 46% to 41% in Rasmussen’s latest poll, 49% to 43% with leaners. Both men have a strong favorability rating (57%), though McCain is slowly making up ground. He trailed by 9% two months ago and 8% last month.

• In Pennsylvania, Rasmussen has Obama leading 47% to 42%, 51% to 45% with leaners, a slight improvement over the June numbers where Obama led by 4%.

• In Colorado, Fredericks Poll shows Obama with a narrow lead, 45% to 41%, just outside of the margin of error.

• Finally, in Maine, Obama is strong in a Critical Insights poll: He leads 51% to 31%. There is no district breakdown, but McCain is clearly distanced in both of Maine’s districts (that award separate electoral votes) if he is trailing by 20% statewide.

New Mexico polls are rare, surprisingly so given that the state (one of the closest in the country in both 2000 and 2004) could prove decisive in November. Combined with Iowa and Colorado, the two Bush states that still look the most promising for Obama, New Mexico would be enough to get the Democrat across the finish line. The last poll from the state dates from more than a month ago (SUSA had Obama leading by 3%), making it hard to know where the state is heading. Note that Bill Richardson (who could lock the state for Obama) has largely dropped out of veepstake speculation in recent weeks.

Pennsylvania is another state that is rarely polled, perhaps because pollsters got fed up with the Keystone state in the six-week run-up to the April 22nd primary (surely the most heated time in the Democratic primary, as is testified by the fact that my recap of the PA results became the most commented on post I have written, with a prolonged fight between Stephen, dmison and an anonymous poster). In fact, the most recent Pennsylvania survey is Rasmussen’s previous poll, released more than a month ago. I have rated Pennsylvania “lean Obama” mostly because of the massive registration games Democrats have posted since 2004.

Meanwhile, we got three Senate races today to complement the 4 polls I listed this morning. While those four brought good news for the GOP (including a 15% Coleman lead and a tie in Colorado), this round should first and foremost reassure the Udall cousins:

• In New Mexico, Tom Udall still crushes Republican Steve Pearce in this open seat, 59% to 34%.

• In Colorado, Fredericks polls finds Mark Udall leading Bob Schaffer 48% to 39%.

• Finally, in Maine, a Critical Insights poll finds Susan Collins ahead 51% to 37% among registered voters (including a 61% to 27% lead among independents) and 50% to 40% among likely voters. However, this poll was taken over four weeks, form the 1st of June to the 27th of June. That is not considered very reliable methodology.

New Mexico’s Senate race looks to be over before it even got started, with Senator Ensign all but admitting that even the NRSC is not very high on Pearce’s chances. Democrats had gotten to hope that Colorado’s Udall had inched ahead by a high single-digit low-double digit lead though the Quinnipiac and Rasmussen polls showed a tightening race over the past few days. We will wait for more polling to see whether the 10% swing in Quinnipiac’s poll was statistical noise or a significant swing.

As for Maine, Susan Collins has been hanging above 50% since the very first polls of the Senate race, shocking Democrats who were confident this seat was very vulnerable. Despite its faulty methodology, this poll is in line with most everything we have seen, and Democrats have a lot of work to do to get Collins’s numbers down.