Comments on: The 1980 parallel: McCain progresses in Q-pac, Rasmussen polls and gets his first lead in CO

By: David

David — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 16:11:20 +0000

I am one of the 67% think that the media is favoring Obama. I am always shocked by those who are shocked when Republicans win. For all its faults, the Republican party still stands for personal freedom and personal responsibility. A cowboy mentality if you will. Boot straps are still the most effective public policy.

By: Robert

Robert — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 12:38:00 +0000

I still can’t figure out why McCain would be ahead with the Off-shore drilling argument. Between the time it’ll take to find new possible wells, build new platforms and safely drill down…we’re not going to be seeing any sort of return on that for another 7-10 years. And that isn’t even taking into account that the refineries are all working at full capacity.

Even then, since the oil companies already have access to 70% of the nation’s oil, I’m not sure why they aren’t drilling it now.

Obama and the Dems need to start hitting back hard with these facts like he did against Hillary and McCain on that silly gas tax holiday. He needs to come back from this trip and aggressively challenge McCain’s ridiculous “Dr.No” caricature; to turn it around and show the American people what gimmicks these are while showing us that yes he will say “no” to bad ideas. He can turn this around to a major strength if he works at it.

Another thing to note. McCain’s own voting record seems to be his worst enemy. I’ve heard recently that he once voted against giving domestic oil to US citizens;instead supporting selling it to other countries like China.

By: Fifty-State Strategy Gains But The Old Swing States Still Rate « The Central Tabulator

Sat, 26 Jul 2008 05:09:43 +0000

[...] Yesterday,5 polls from crucial swing states showed narrow races in the familiar swing states, while other developments underlined the relevance of the new Obama approach, including the unprecedented national scope of his campaign. As the Democrat started running ads in states like North Dakota and Indiana last month, we got out first sense that talk of expanding the map was not just a feint. An analysis of Obama’s campaign organization published by The Hill confirms that Democrats are serious about contesting these states. Source Article [...]

By: Just Sayin'

Just Sayin' — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 16:59:08 +0000

Following up: Remember Dukakis’s HUGE double digit lead in polls in the summer of 1988, Kerry’s solid lead all summer of 2004?

By: Just Sayin'

Just Sayin' — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 16:57:53 +0000

You all seem to be missing the point. As a Democrat I am terrified. Historically during the summer the Dem candidate is way ahead, not statistically in a dead heat. Summer time traditionally gives the Dem candidate their largest lead and it slowing disintegrates and then (except Clinton who just barely hung on thanks to Perot in 1992) they lose (of course Clinton was the exception — again thanks to Perot in ‘92 and incumbency in 1996 where he still only rec’d 49% of the vote). We need to get to work. Obama’s statistical tie or tiny lead in all these polls means we are in huge trouble.

By: Jaxx Raxor

Jaxx Raxor — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 19:52:57 +0000

If energy issues indeed become more important, then the election will definitly stay close because most Americans are with the Republicans when it comes to off shore oil drillings. However, like everyone else has said, I’m not sure if this alone is truly enough to save the Republicans from the dismal election cycle they are now in.

Also I definitlely agree that this is like the 1980 election in that the electorate is trying to find a way to vote for a Democratic but that they still have concerns. The major difference is that McCain is not the incumbent, and this favors him immensisly, as he doesn’t have the exact problems that Bush has. Carter of course was the incumbent and he did have his own problems to defend against. McCain supporters should be happy about these polls, but such happiness will be fleeting unless McCain is doing this well (or better) in October as well.

By: Ron

Ron — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 19:11:52 +0000

The energy issue is killing Democrats. They picked the wrong issue to make a stand on. 60% of the American people support drilling and Democrats would be smart to let them have what they want.

By: zoot

zoot — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 19:00:54 +0000

I do agree that summer polls are like summer reading - kind of fun for the moment, but they don’t have much long-term effect. However, there are a couple of threads running through the various polls that are of concern: likability and sharing values. It doesn’t require a lot of deep thought or commitment for the average voters to decide if s/he likes a candidate and shares his values, and Obama is not doing so well there. If 2000 and 2004 are representative, we can’t disregard those factors.

Personally, I like Obama’s mind and his style. I am concerned that the supreme self-confidence and cool that he demonstrates translates very easily into arrogance, and as I noted elsewhere, its very easy for a voter to recast his triumphal march through Asia and Europe as arrogance. I don’t think you want to be type-cast as arrogant when pitted against John McCain and his ‘war hero’ back story. As a people, we have a weakness for scrappy underdogs who over-perform (WJC), and I wonder if we’re headed that way.

By: Taniel

Taniel — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 18:53:04 +0000

Steven: Of course these polls won’t determine the outcome. But they say something about the current political dynamics. That the race has not moved since late May despite everything that has happened since then provides us useful indicators as to what voters are looking for and McCain’s potential to perform better than expected.

By: Steven J. Berke

Steven J. Berke — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 18:44:46 +0000

Historically, except for the big incumbent landslide years–1964, 1972, 1984–when the outcome was obvious to everyone with any sense by late spring at the latest, polls in the summer have had very little to do with the final outcome. Very little reason for Obama backers to worry or McCain backers to get their hopes up.