At the beginning of June, the McCain campaign’s stated goal was to still be in contact on Labor Day and not fall too far behind during the summer. As expected, much has gone Obama’s way for the past 7 weeks: Republicans remain massively unpopular and Bush’s ratings are dismal. Obama has attracted more attention, delivered better speeches, outraised his opponent and reconciled with Hillary Clinton. Over the past week, he has gotten the implicit support of the Iraqi government and his trip has received massive amount of media coverage.
Yet, polls continue to suggest that Obama has not been able to open a comfortable lead. While Obama retains a consistent advantage in national polls, it is a narrow mid-single digit one and the dream of a double-digit Dukakis-like advantage (once fueled by Newsweek) seems to have evaporated. In fact, a number of polls are bringing stronger than usual numbers for McCain, for example this past Tuesday. The trend continued today, with 5 state polls by Quinnipiac and Rasmussen all showing the trendline favoring McCain:
- [Update: A new national poll released by Fox News finds a toss-up race as well, with Obama at 41% and McCain at 40%. 67% think that the media is favoring Obama. As for the foreign trip, 29% say that Obama's popularity abroad makes them more likely to vote for the Democrat, versus 27% who say it makes them less likely - the type of response I will never be able to understand.]
- In Colorado, the new Quinnipiac poll finds McCain at 46% and Obama at 44%. Last month, Obama led by 5%. This is the first indeendent Colorado poll ever in which McCain is ahead - even if it is within the margin of error. It looks like the partisan breakdown has balanced itself back in the GOP’s favor.
- In Michigan, the shift is within the margin of error as Quinnipiac now has Obama leading 46% to 42%, versus 48% to 42%. After a period in which Obama seemed to be opening a big lead in Michigan, recent polls are back to a tight race.
- In Wisconsin, good news for Obama who holds on to an unlikely double-digit lead, 50% to 39%. Here again, the shift is within the margin of error (-2 Obama), but 27% of voters say they could still change their mind.
- In Minnesota, a huge shift in Quinnipiac’s poll as Obama falls from a 17% lead to a 2% lead, 46% to 44%.
- In New Hampshire, finally, a state that has been polled twice already this week (with two toss-up results), Rasmussen finds Obama up 47% to 41% - 49% to 45% with leaners. Both candidates have a strong favorability rating (63% for McCain, 57% for Obama). Last month, Obama led 50% to 39%.
- One possible explanation: In all of the Quinnipiac polls (MN, WI, CO and MI), voters said energy issues were more important than Iraq! All polls found that voters massively approved of offshore drilling and of driling in ANWR. The GOP’s curent focus on energy seems to be paying off. Also, President Bush’s approval rating is at most at 31% in Colorado and as low as 25% in Michigan…
None of these results constitutes bad news for Obama: McCain hasn’t been ahead in any national poll since the first week of May, and that was a 1% advantage. Even these 5 polls that I am considering as progress for the Republican leave him behind in four out of five (with Colorado essentially a toss-up). And Obama still looks strong to hold on to all the Kerry states: New Hampshire and Michigan are the most endangered but Obama has held a consistently narrow lead there; and he posts bigger margins than was expected a few months ago in Minnesota (where Rasmussen had him leading by 12% yesterday) and Wisconsin.
That said, it would be dishonest not to point out that McCain is keeping the race very competive. The last week of July, after a strong week and month for Obama, is not the time we would expect to see tightening poll numbers. Obama remains ahead, but McCain is performing more strongly than other Republicans would have. UNH’s poll of the New Hampshire Senate race yesterday suggested that he might be getting some independents to behave like Republicans again. And note that four of these five states are Kerry states, which McCain doesn’t need to win as long as he doesn’t lose more than 16 Bush electoral votes.
The NBC/WSJ national poll that was released yesterday provides us useful information to determine just what is going on: voters are thinking more about Obama than McCain by a 2:1 margin and a greater number thinks Obama would be a risky choice than McCain. The Republican polls far greater numbers when asked who would be the best leader. That said, voters give Obama the edge - albeit a narrow one. In other words, Obama has to remove doubts in voters’ minds who are yearning to vote for a Democratic President.
The most useful parallel for the current dynamics, then, is the 1980 presidential election. All indicators pointed to a likely disastrous showing for Jimmy Carter. Yet, the polling remained as close as possible until the last week of October when Reagan somehow addressed voters’ doubts in the campaign’s one debate and won a landslide election a week later. If Obama manages a similar moment (and he will have plenty of opportunities), he is likely to get a big victory; otherwise, McCain is popular enough to keep it close.
Taniel- Interesting comparison to 1980
McCain’s lead this week could actually be because of Obama’s trip. McCain has been on the attack all week, and Obama cannot defend himself.
Also, as I’ve said before, the Democrats have screwed up the energy issue while the republicans have used it brilliantly. They will need to fight back
The energy issue could turn 2008 into a Republican year, not a Democratic year.
I think your polls are just a little crooked and biase toward Obama, because I think he is way ahead of mccain every where.
I agree the energy issue (especially off shore drilling) has been well exploited by the GOP. However I cannot believe the American people would vote primarily on that. The Dems had popular policies on education, healthcare etc in the past elections and lost. I think Taniel is correct the main barrier to a large Obama lead and victory are doubts around Commander in Chief and being presidential. That is why Obama is abroad for over a week to help address this.
I think it will pay off and the debtaes will also be crucial, just like they were to Reagan.
Historically, except for the big incumbent landslide years–1964, 1972, 1984–when the outcome was obvious to everyone with any sense by late spring at the latest, polls in the summer have had very little to do with the final outcome. Very little reason for Obama backers to worry or McCain backers to get their hopes up.
Steven: Of course these polls won’t determine the outcome. But they say something about the current political dynamics. That the race has not moved since late May despite everything that has happened since then provides us useful indicators as to what voters are looking for and McCain’s potential to perform better than expected.
I do agree that summer polls are like summer reading - kind of fun for the moment, but they don’t have much long-term effect. However, there are a couple of threads running through the various polls that are of concern: likability and sharing values. It doesn’t require a lot of deep thought or commitment for the average voters to decide if s/he likes a candidate and shares his values, and Obama is not doing so well there. If 2000 and 2004 are representative, we can’t disregard those factors.
Personally, I like Obama’s mind and his style. I am concerned that the supreme self-confidence and cool that he demonstrates translates very easily into arrogance, and as I noted elsewhere, its very easy for a voter to recast his triumphal march through Asia and Europe as arrogance. I don’t think you want to be type-cast as arrogant when pitted against John McCain and his ‘war hero’ back story. As a people, we have a weakness for scrappy underdogs who over-perform (WJC), and I wonder if we’re headed that way.
The energy issue is killing Democrats. They picked the wrong issue to make a stand on. 60% of the American people support drilling and Democrats would be smart to let them have what they want.
If energy issues indeed become more important, then the election will definitly stay close because most Americans are with the Republicans when it comes to off shore oil drillings. However, like everyone else has said, I’m not sure if this alone is truly enough to save the Republicans from the dismal election cycle they are now in.
Also I definitlely agree that this is like the 1980 election in that the electorate is trying to find a way to vote for a Democratic but that they still have concerns. The major difference is that McCain is not the incumbent, and this favors him immensisly, as he doesn’t have the exact problems that Bush has. Carter of course was the incumbent and he did have his own problems to defend against. McCain supporters should be happy about these polls, but such happiness will be fleeting unless McCain is doing this well (or better) in October as well.
You all seem to be missing the point. As a Democrat I am terrified. Historically during the summer the Dem candidate is way ahead, not statistically in a dead heat. Summer time traditionally gives the Dem candidate their largest lead and it slowing disintegrates and then (except Clinton who just barely hung on thanks to Perot in 1992) they lose (of course Clinton was the exception — again thanks to Perot in ‘92 and incumbency in 1996 where he still only rec’d 49% of the vote). We need to get to work. Obama’s statistical tie or tiny lead in all these polls means we are in huge trouble.
Following up: Remember Dukakis’s HUGE double digit lead in polls in the summer of 1988, Kerry’s solid lead all summer of 2004?
I still can’t figure out why McCain would be ahead with the Off-shore drilling argument. Between the time it’ll take to find new possible wells, build new platforms and safely drill down…we’re not going to be seeing any sort of return on that for another 7-10 years. And that isn’t even taking into account that the refineries are all working at full capacity.
Even then, since the oil companies already have access to 70% of the nation’s oil, I’m not sure why they aren’t drilling it now.
Obama and the Dems need to start hitting back hard with these facts like he did against Hillary and McCain on that silly gas tax holiday. He needs to come back from this trip and aggressively challenge McCain’s ridiculous “Dr.No” caricature; to turn it around and show the American people what gimmicks these are while showing us that yes he will say “no” to bad ideas. He can turn this around to a major strength if he works at it.
Another thing to note. McCain’s own voting record seems to be his worst enemy. I’ve heard recently that he once voted against giving domestic oil to US citizens;instead supporting selling it to other countries like China.
I am one of the 67% think that the media is favoring Obama. I am always shocked by those who are shocked when Republicans win. For all its faults, the Republican party still stands for personal freedom and personal responsibility. A cowboy mentality if you will. Boot straps are still the most effective public policy.