Comments on: Tuesday polls: McCain enjoys strong polling day and Obama’s high unfavorables, but Sununu drowns http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/22/tuesday-polls-2/ Obsessive political analysis Sat, 20 Mar 2010 10:41:40 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Guy http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/22/tuesday-polls-2/comment-page-1/#comment-6320 Guy Wed, 23 Jul 2008 12:57:11 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1198#comment-6320 Obama "disagreeing" with Petraeus is perfectly acceptable since Petraeus is the commander in Iraq and Obama as a future President has to see the big picture. It is like one school in a school distric saying we need $millions and millions and ignoring the needs of the other schools in the district. The school district leadership has to look at all the school. This what Obama is saying. If we are going to defer to military types then just elect a General President and be done with it! Obama “disagreeing” with Petraeus is perfectly acceptable since Petraeus is the commander in Iraq and Obama as a future President has to see the big picture. It is like one school in a school distric saying we need $millions and millions and ignoring the needs of the other schools in the district. The school district leadership has to look at all the school. This what Obama is saying.

If we are going to defer to military types then just elect a General President and be done with it!

]]> By: zoot http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/22/tuesday-polls-2/comment-page-1/#comment-6319 zoot Wed, 23 Jul 2008 01:21:14 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1198#comment-6319 I'm in the minority who feel that Obama's performance on tour is a mixed bag. I think he's muffed the surge issue. There is an argument that the Sunni Awakening in Al Anbar - combined with buying of Moqtada and his gangsters - really changed the equation and that it began before the surge was implemented, but he didn't make it very clearly, and seemed to dodge the question entirely at the end. As someone (Jay Carney?) said tonight, drilling down beneath everything else, the voters don't like a person who dodges responsibility and refuses to admit mistakes, which this resembles. Also, I think he gave the impression that he is the decider, and the business with Petraeus where he says he wound up disagreeing with Petraeus and announced that it was his ultimate responsibility as a potential president to do so was unfortunate. It created the impression he was free-lancing on foreign policy despite his comment that we only have one president at a time, and it flies in the face of his earlier comment that he was going there to listen and not to talk. I'm concerned by his persistently high unfavorables. We know what role that played in sinking Gore and Kerry. People may be dismayed by McCain's policies and his chaotic memory for names, etc., but they don't dislike him the way they're beginning to dislike Obama. I'm uncomfortable with the way my candidate is comporting himself right now. We're a long ways away from November. Hopefully, it's my habitual pessimism compounded by too much caffeine today..... I’m in the minority who feel that Obama’s performance on tour is a mixed bag.

I think he’s muffed the surge issue. There is an argument that the Sunni Awakening in Al Anbar - combined with buying of Moqtada and his gangsters - really changed the equation and that it began before the surge was implemented, but he didn’t make it very clearly, and seemed to dodge the question entirely at the end. As someone (Jay Carney?) said tonight, drilling down beneath everything else, the voters don’t like a person who dodges responsibility and refuses to admit mistakes, which this resembles.

Also, I think he gave the impression that he is the decider, and the business with Petraeus where he says he wound up disagreeing with Petraeus and announced that it was his ultimate responsibility as a potential president to do so was unfortunate. It created the impression he was free-lancing on foreign policy despite his comment that we only have one president at a time, and it flies in the face of his earlier comment that he was going there to listen and not to talk.

I’m concerned by his persistently high unfavorables. We know what role that played in sinking Gore and Kerry. People may be dismayed by McCain’s policies and his chaotic memory for names, etc., but they don’t dislike him the way they’re beginning to dislike Obama. I’m uncomfortable with the way my candidate is comporting himself right now. We’re a long ways away from November. Hopefully, it’s my habitual pessimism compounded by too much caffeine today…..

]]> By: Joe from NC http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/22/tuesday-polls-2/comment-page-1/#comment-6318 Joe from NC Wed, 23 Jul 2008 01:08:31 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1198#comment-6318 Jaxx, That's the point I was trying to make. I was also saying that the high gas prices look like (and in my belief largely are) the fault of Bush and the Republicans. It shocked me that they have been able to make the gas prices look like the democrats fault. The dems however are wisely urging a crackdown on speculation in the oil market. They will have to make the case that this is the most effective route to the voters. Jaxx,
That’s the point I was trying to make. I was also saying that the high gas prices look like (and in my belief largely are) the fault of Bush and the Republicans. It shocked me that they have been able to make the gas prices look like the democrats fault. The dems however are wisely urging a crackdown on speculation in the oil market. They will have to make the case that this is the most effective route to the voters.

]]> By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/22/tuesday-polls-2/comment-page-1/#comment-6317 Jaxx Raxor Wed, 23 Jul 2008 00:31:39 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1198#comment-6317 Joe the issue of drilling should be a potent issue for Republicans because polls currently show strong appoval among voters for offshore drilling and drilling in ANWR, even among Democrats and liberals. The issue will be how potent it will be, and if it will turn back the horrible political enivorment Republicans are in right now. Joe the issue of drilling should be a potent issue for Republicans because polls currently show strong appoval among voters for offshore drilling and drilling in ANWR, even among Democrats and liberals. The issue will be how potent it will be, and if it will turn back the horrible political enivorment Republicans are in right now.

]]> By: Joe from NC http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/22/tuesday-polls-2/comment-page-1/#comment-6316 Joe from NC Wed, 23 Jul 2008 00:16:47 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1198#comment-6316 I think both polls are a little off. PPP usually is a bit more generous to Democrats than others and Rasmussen usually favors Republicans by a little bit. However, it is clear that Obama has not put away the state. This probably is due to the fact that McCain and his allied groups have been spending so much there and Obama has not. Also, the offshore drilling issue has been used ingeniously by the Republicans. They took an issue that could easily be made to look like their fault and are attempting to make it look like its the Democrats' fault. Obama will have to be clearer and more agressive in his attacks on McCain's oil plan and do a better job of putting his plan out there. I think both polls are a little off. PPP usually is a bit more generous to Democrats than others and Rasmussen usually favors Republicans by a little bit. However, it is clear that Obama has not put away the state. This probably is due to the fact that McCain and his allied groups have been spending so much there and Obama has not.
Also, the offshore drilling issue has been used ingeniously by the Republicans. They took an issue that could easily be made to look like their fault and are attempting to make it look like its the Democrats’ fault. Obama will have to be clearer and more agressive in his attacks on McCain’s oil plan and do a better job of putting his plan out there.

]]> By: Jim W http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/22/tuesday-polls-2/comment-page-1/#comment-6315 Jim W Tue, 22 Jul 2008 23:11:18 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1198#comment-6315 I'm not too concerned about this "snapshot". I expected McCain would close in the gap with Obama at some point of time. I also do not believe it will last. Obama did a helluva job in Iraq, and he just looks very presidential in his mannerisms and demeanor. McCain looks more and more like Bob Dole in 1996--a good and decent man that has a bad temper, the GOP base hates, and is too old. Dole caught up with Clinton on occassion, but that was 1996 and Clinton was the incumbent President. I think Obama will beat Dole in November by a healthy margin. I think Obama will end up winning 330 electoral votes. I’m not too concerned about this “snapshot”. I expected McCain would close in the gap with Obama at some point of time. I also do not believe it will last. Obama did a helluva job in Iraq, and he just looks very presidential in his mannerisms and demeanor. McCain looks more and more like Bob Dole in 1996–a good and decent man that has a bad temper, the GOP base hates, and is too old. Dole caught up with Clinton on occassion, but that was 1996 and Clinton was the incumbent President.

I think Obama will beat Dole in November by a healthy margin. I think Obama will end up winning 330 electoral votes.

]]> By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/22/tuesday-polls-2/comment-page-1/#comment-6314 Jaxx Raxor Tue, 22 Jul 2008 23:00:01 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1198#comment-6314 Maybe Hillary would be higher at this point if she was the nominee instead of Obama, but its' hard to know what type of scrunity she would have gotten. We don't want tot forget that Clinton's strength among democrats is balanced by her weakness with independnets and she would probalby be doing much worse than Obama is right now among these key groups. Not to mention that Republicans would be much more gun ho about defeating a Clinton than going after Obama. Obama's weakness isn't in GOP mobilzation but mainly in Clinton holdouts, which is where alot of his unfavorable ratings are coming from. It is true that Obama isn't the strongest Democratic candidate, but Hillary Clinton wouldn't have been the strongest either, or even just stronger than Obama over the long run. Remember that she ended the primary on a high note and Obama on a kinda of low note, which is why polls show her doing better, but it would fade fast if she had somehow become the nominee. Today's polls may be good for McCain but he still hasn't polled ahead in the national polls yet (he only manages a tie) and like Taniel said he has been behind in Colorado ever since Obama got the nominatiation. So I say until a poll shows McCain ahead (even by just 1 point in national polls) I say that this election is still trending Democratic, as barely as it is. Maybe Hillary would be higher at this point if she was the nominee instead of Obama, but its’ hard to know what type of scrunity she would have gotten. We don’t want tot forget that Clinton’s strength among democrats is balanced by her weakness with independnets and she would probalby be doing much worse than Obama is right now among these key groups. Not to mention that Republicans would be much more gun ho about defeating a Clinton than going after Obama. Obama’s weakness isn’t in GOP mobilzation but mainly in Clinton holdouts, which is where alot of his unfavorable ratings are coming from. It is true that Obama isn’t the strongest Democratic candidate, but Hillary Clinton wouldn’t have been the strongest either, or even just stronger than Obama over the long run. Remember that she ended the primary on a high note and Obama on a kinda of low note, which is why polls show her doing better, but it would fade fast if she had somehow become the nominee.

Today’s polls may be good for McCain but he still hasn’t polled ahead in the national polls yet (he only manages a tie) and like Taniel said he has been behind in Colorado ever since Obama got the nominatiation. So I say until a poll shows McCain ahead (even by just 1 point in national polls) I say that this election is still trending Democratic, as barely as it is.

]]> By: mikeel http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/22/tuesday-polls-2/comment-page-1/#comment-6313 mikeel Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:36:03 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1198#comment-6313 Several reasons why McCain is doing so well: 1. Energy issue--McCain's ads are working 2. New Yorker cover--it's still sticking 3. Race--still a problem 4. Surge--it's "working"--not really, the it's the perception that counts. 5. Still a lot of Clinton holdouts. Even though her unfavorables would still be be pretty high, Hillary Clinton would be up 5-7% over McCain. Several reasons why McCain is doing so well:

1. Energy issue–McCain’s ads are working
2. New Yorker cover–it’s still sticking
3. Race–still a problem
4. Surge–it’s “working”–not really, the it’s the perception that counts.
5. Still a lot of Clinton holdouts.

Even though her unfavorables would still be be pretty high, Hillary Clinton would be up 5-7% over McCain.

]]>