Comments on: Surge and withdrawal: Shifting perceptions in Iraq debate

By: zoot

zoot — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 16:36:15 +0000

Dannity - I’d like to think you’re right, but I am concerned that the average voter doesn’t have as much appetite for complexity as Obama does. The average voter is very much post hoc propter hoc, and disregarding McCain’s fumble of the timing, that equates to [surge+reduction in violence=successful strategy]. One of Obama’s weaknesses is the tendency to long run-on explanations: great for policy wonks, but like the venture capital elevator speech, you lose your audience after 30 seconds.

It reminds me of the Biden-Kerry vignette. After the fiasco over ‘I voted against it before I voted for it’, Biden was coaching Kerry on how to deal with the Iraq votes: “Just tell them that the administration lied to you”. Kerry nodded his head solemnly and said: “OK, Joe< that’s how I’ll answer [long pause]….and then I’ll explain”. Biden exploded “Don’t explain anything, just keep your %$@#)&*^ mouth shut!”

That’s the message - don’t get locked into long explanations. I’m not dissing anyone - that’s just reality. He better reduce his response to something easy to grasp in 30 words or less.

By: dannity

dannity — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 16:09:16 +0000

I expect Obama to take on the nature of the “success” of the surge sometime after returning from overseas. Right now, this trip is all about meeting with foreign leaders around the world and building his cache with the American public regarding foreign policy. The last thing he wants is another round of 3 AM ads the last week of October driving undecided voters to McCain in droves. The ads will appear, but this trip will go a long way toward inoculating Obama against those attacks.

The last thing he wants to do on this trip is to get involved in a back and forth media-driven debate with John McCain over the strengths of the surge. Personally, I think he needs to address it, because it’s rapidly become what McCain is pretty anchoring his entire campaign on, but Obama will do it on his schedule, not Couric’s. When he does, I’m pretty sure he’ll get into troop deployments and rotations, the actual nature of the surge’s success (and what that might mean moving forward), and how that continued success relies on coordinating with the Iraqi government and other regional players. Also, I’m pretty sure Afghanistan, which McCain clearly isn’t interested in talking about, will be part of the conversation.

But there’ll be time for all that later when Obama get back. Right now, it’s clearly not in his interest to debate McCain on the surge while he’s busy projecting a Presidential image back home and abroad.

By: Guy

Guy — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 12:47:56 +0000

It is a good strategy for the Democrtas to go on the offensive on Iraq and foreign policy in general. It is perceived as McCain’s only real policy strength so if it can be neutralised now then the election is Obama’s for the taking. This is very Rovian/Bush - go after your opponents strength, neutralise it and then let his weaknesses sink him. Since Iraq/Terrorism is the only think providing buoyancy to McCain at the moment it is a great idea to go after that. Also it helps with the whole “Commander in Chief” threshold test that Obama needs to pass. Will be interesting to see the polls in the next couple of weeks to see if perceptions have changed. So far Obama’s trip has been a success - no gaffes etc.

By: fritz

fritz — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 12:34:03 +0000

I don’t see McCain’s Sunni awakeing gaffe as all that big a deal. He has one of these mental lapses about every second day and the MSM has tended to ignore or alibi them; i.e. CBS’s reporting on the awakeing flub. The problem for McCain is that these senior moments reinforce the age debate in the minds of the media and to some extent the voters.
Much more serious for McCain is the charge that Obama “would rather lose a war to win a political campaign”. This is close to accusing Obama of sedition and it will take at least a couple of news cycles for the media to walk him back from the comment; as McCain has repeated it a number of times, always followed with that little self-satisfied smirk.
The McCain campaign seems to be following the Bush/Rove plan of making outrageous statements about a candidate and then just moving on. A good example of this is the McCain energy ad that accused Obama of causing high gas prices; a laugh inducing ad among the educated; but it might be taken differently by those uninformed who are looking for a convenient scapegoat especially if he’s AA.
McCain appears able to deal with the world & issues only in black & white ( Iraq is seen only as a WWII style victory or Vietnam type defeat) while Obama deals in subtle shades of gray. Unfortunatly a vey large portion of the US voting population sees the world and it’s issues in just this black & white illusion.
I do wonder how long before subtle racial comments enter the campaign.