A major storyline of this campaign season is the enthusiasm gap: Democratic and Republican voters are not as excited by this election and GOP turnout is likely to suffer as a result. This was already true in 2006, and though such concerns tend to be more crucial in a low-turnout midterm election than in a presidential year, every sign points to a similar scenario in 2008. For one, Democratic turnout in state primaries in which both parties had a competitive race bested that of the Republican contest, often by gargantuan margins.
The latest proof of the widening enthusiasm gap came this week-end. In states like Texas and Iowa, Democrats have been celebrating overflowing state conventions and a record number of delegates. But in Nevada, Republicans decided to cancel the state convention that was meant to be held this coming Saturday! While the convention has a quorum of 675 delegates, only 300 had returned their RSVPs and the state party will pick its delegates for the St. Paul convention via… conference call.
That Republicans cannot even meet the quorum to hold a state convention just about summarizes the trouble the party is in this year. In a presidential year and in a swing state with a widening Democratic registration edge and a competitive House race, GOP activists are dispirited. While this base of the base represents only a small number of voters, they are also a disproportionate share of campaign volunteers. They are the ones who will go door-to-door, phone bank, stuff envelopes and convince their entourages to go to the polls on Election Day. And a state convention is an ideal location for this organization to be put in place. This is what John McCain is in danger of losing this year.
At the same time, there are signs that evangelical leaders are slowly walking back on their hostility to John McCain, and this is very good news considering how badly the Republican candidate needs their support: In 2004, evangelicals were motivated and came to the polls in great numbers, ensuring Bush’s victory and demonstrating that they are essential to the GOP coalition, particularly if independents are leaving the sinking Republican ship as they are this year. Yet, the Religious Right has not been satisfied this year.
In early October, the leaders of the movement were doing their best to derail Rudy Giuliani’s candidacy. While John McCain, being pro-life, was a step in the right direction in the eyes of evangelical leaders, they remained very hostile to the Arizona Senator. The McCain campaign spent much of the four months following Super Tuesday wooing the conservative base, aware of the importance of motivating the base and ensuring the active support of all its components. And his strategy seems to be somewhat working as James Dobson just went as far as he ever had in McCain’s direction.
Speaking on his radio show in an broadcast to air today, Dobson declared: “I never thought I would hear myself saying this… While I am not endorsing Senator John McCain, the possibility is there that I might.” Dobson attributed his change of heart to the danger Obama would represent: “Barack Obama contradicts and threatens everything I believe about the institution of the family and what is best for the nation. His radical positions on life, marriage and national security force me to reevaluate the candidacy of our only other choice, John McCain.”
This is, of course, unsurprising: As the electorate becomes polarized in a general election, many of those reluctant to support their party’s nominee will opt to support whoever they view as the lesser-of-two-evils. McCain’s strategy then has to duplicate Bush’s and render Obama as polarizing that John Kerry became to make conservatives recoil at the very possibility that he might reach the White House. But that is very hard to do when facing an opponent who has more financial resources, and it will not address the enthusiasm factor: given the turnout gap the GOP is threatened with, merely convincing the base of the base to go vote will not be enough. There are for now few signs that McCain can duplicate Bush’s vast mobilization among conservative networks.
All these conditions will be a factor in McCain’s VP choice. Dobson said that how he proceeds will also depend on who McCain picks as his running-mate, and that attitude is likely shared by other conservative activists. If McCain chooses someone they are very comfortable with, they might mobilize more than they would otherwise. And at the very least, McCain cannot afford to choose a pro-choice politician like Tom Ridge. He might have a better shot at winning Pennsylvania, but at what price.
If McCain picks Rpmney that would complicate his aim of pleasing the religious right.
The most interesting thing about Romney though is that McCain also really, really wants to win Michigan and with the Romney name being sacred to many here it would help him quite a bit.
Another question is to what extent will Bob Barr affect McCain with republicans? If it even appears on polls (as in 2 or 3 percent) McCain might have to choose who he is going to fight to win, the religious right or the libertarians.
Romney is a big problem with the social conservatives so McCain has to choose his poison. Given his weakness on economic issues and his desperate desire to be competitive in MI, he may decide that that alone is not enough to disqualify Romney, on the premise that many of the evangelicals would fall into line eventually.
What’s harder to gauge is whether the evangelical community has evolved beyond their traditional priorities: reproductive rights, gay marriage and migrating the Judeo-Christian God into public spaces.
There have been suggestions, mainly from the MM, that younger evangelicals have a broader agenda, including the environment; AIDS; humanitarian missions in places like Darfur; and human rights generally. I’ve seen no hard data on this, but if it exists, it dovetails nicely with Obama’s muted discussions of reproductive rights and his own religiosity. Obama doesn’t need to win the evangelical vote, which he clearly is incapable of doing; all he needs to do is break away a significant enough fraction to dilute McCain’s base.
I think McCain is shrewd enough to know that he can’t tack too far right again to make Dobson and his crew happy. He’d be kissing the moderate middle good-by. Dobson et. al. will have to take him as he is, with a few ritual bows on choice issues to keep their ardor up - not too hard, since McCain is clearly anti-choice anyhow.
This isn’t 2004. I don’t think that the hard-core religious right will drive McCain’s success. Like the DailyKos on the Left, they’ll have to accommodate themselves to what they get, which will be continued deference on the judiciary and ritual mouthing about family values. McCain is hardly an avatar for the latter, but consistency on this point has not been a priority in the evangelical community, where what you say your life principles are seems to be far more important than how you actually live your life.
McCain’s priority has to remain getting a foot-hold in the middle and making dents in the blue-collar working class, and someone like Romney would buttress his non-existent economic credentials. The real issue with Romney is if a venture capitalist is going to be attractive to hard-pressed families who are threatened by the kinds of plant consolidations and lay-offs that have been common post-going private. Combined with McCain’s defense of the Bush tax cuts and the antipathy to his Mormonism amongst evangelicals, that can be lethal. My guess is he’ll go elsewhere.
I personally don’t think Romney helps in Michigan was much as people seem to think he will. My gut feeling is that Michigan is further off for McCain than just picking Romney as VP will help right now. Of course, that’s pure speculation, and McCain is currently putting a lot of time into the state in an attempt to play some degree of offense.
Where Romney does help is the Mountain West, where he can solidly deliver the Mormon voters that could very well give McCain states like Nevada, Colorado, and Wyoming. He would even help in McCain’s home state of Arizona, where McCain is currently underperforming.
The question is, would that be an adequate trade off for Romney likely hurting with evangelicals in places like Ohio, which McCain simply cannot afford to lose. Also, I’m a big believer in not reinforcing a negative perception of a candidate with a VP pick (which is why I’m not in favor of Gen. Clarke for Obama). Romney would be a clear indicator that McCain wants to buttress himself with an economic “expert”. However, Romney still has the image of a big business powerhungry CEO running for President at a time when people are losing their jobs. I’m guessing that could be spun as a negative by the Democrats in this environment.