Comments on: Risks and rewards of Obama’s red state strategy

By: Guy

Guy — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 16:54:47 +0000

LES is right about Virginia moving from Red to Purple. North Carolina is one to two cycles behind Virginia since its professional, urban areas are still smaller than NOVA. However they are growing faster than the state on the whole so NC will move further to the Dems and closer to being a true swing state.

Since solid Dem states like NY, MI, PA and other mid western states like OH are losing EV’s with each census then Dems need to go into the growing parts of the USA - VA, NC, FL, CO etc.

By: LES

LES — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 15:36:03 +0000

As the race between now Sen Jim Webb and George Allen showed in 2006, Virginia has become a battleground state. This time we have professionals in NOVA who love Obama and military folk in Tidewater who like McCain. This state has now turned from red to purple and it will be a nailbiter.

By: Guy

Guy — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:19:33 +0000

App state - I agree the Democratic Senators elected never won by huge margins but then the GOP senators didn`t either. Helms never got more than a 5% victory in any of his 5 races. Bowles-Burr was a close election. The demographics of NC (my home state) are changing in the Dems favor - I don`t think the Dems will win this year but 2012 and 2016 are definite possibilities due to Charlotte and the Triangle continuing to grow.

Taniel is correct that having Alaska and NC on the radr is a victory for Obama because if he is close in either of those states (ie doing much better than Kerry vs Bush) then he will be doing better in IA, OH, CO, VA, NV, NM, MI etc and will be on course for a 300 EV’s or more at that point. McCain has limited enthusiasm and money - not a good mix for him!

By: app state

app state — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 02:16:02 +0000

I’m still not convinced they are actually in play. First of all, it seems like the numbers for Obama in NC (my state) were similar to that of Hillary’s around the “tightening” before the primary. It’s not that he is moving up, but that McCain people are somewhat undecided; the same was true back then. Both Springtime Pre-Primary Hillary and Early Summer Barack seem to be stuck in the low to mid-40s. I believe he won’t go much higher than that as the year moves on. Even though Bill C. only lost NC by 20,000 in 1992, he still never broke the mid-40’s in percentage. Anecdotally, I hear plenty of stories of old school Democrats in my neck of the woods who are not sold on him yet either. It will take alot of movement on his part for him to reach 50%, or close enough to win (in NC). Also, remember that North Carolina has only sent two Democratic senators to Washington in the past 35 years - neither of which won by very convincing margins and both of which won in off-years. This is not to say Hagan is going to lose to Dole, but to point out that the state has a very hard time voting for Democrats on the federal level.

By: Joe from NC

Joe from NC — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 02:14:20 +0000

I meant “and” between “beliefs” and “thoughts.”

By: Joe from NC

Joe from NC — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 02:13:09 +0000

As a Southerner I can say the main reason Obama is doing so poorly with white Democrats is Rev. Wright. Many older, more conservative white Democrats in the South still have racist tendencies. Most don’t think of themselves as racists, but the feelings are still there (That is why Jesse Helms was able to pull ahead at the end of each of his senate campaigns)

Because of these feelings, the voters were suspicious of Obama from the beginning, but some would have still voted from him. But the rants of Rev. Wright play to their stereotypes and fears and make their racists beliefs thoughts seem justified to them. Some feel that because of Rev. Wright, they have permission to be racists.