Comments on: Poll roundup: It’s a tie in Virginia, McCain leads in Alaska and Prop 8 is losing

By: Craig

Craig — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 16:30:39 +0000

Mark, thanks for your blog!
Those stats are very interesting and, as an Obama supporter, inspiring. For so long I’ve been hearing people try to compare Obama being in the lead with the ‘88 race and I knew it didn’t make sense.
Of course, we won’t know what will happen on November fourth until November fourth, but your statements are fresh and mature.

By: Mark

Mark — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 19:48:59 +0000

I have done a statistical comparison of Obama in May/June 2008 to Kerry May/June 2004, the results from the battleground states are here at my blog.

Similar story for McCain in May/June 2008 to Bush May/June 2004, the results from the “SAFE” GOP states are here.

Coming Tuesday: Obama 2008 vs. Kerry 2004 - SAFE DEM states.

The numbers and commentary are worth the click. :) :)

By: Joe from NC

Joe from NC — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 23:29:52 +0000

Jaxx Raxor,
I mostly agree with your prediction about Virginia, but I think Mark Warner could help Obama win there. Warner looks sure to win the senate race by a landslide and, while many Virginians will split the ticket, the major enthusiasm for Warner could cause a few independents to swing for Obama, and given how competitive Obama is, they could swing the state his way.
Of course, that is probably the best case scenario for him, but it is a possibility, and one that could become more likely if the two campaign together.

By: Jaxx Raxor

Jaxx Raxor — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 20:09:02 +0000

Yeah we do need more polls from Ohio.

Tatina Obama’s spending in states like Alaska is not a waste if he has alot of extra spending money. Remember that like many things, spending has dimishing returns. Its probably better for Obama’s chances if he spends his extra money in Alaska and not just put it all into Ohio for example.

The Virginia poll is worrisome for Obama but he is still very competive here so thats good news for him and bad news for McCain. I do feel that Virginia will eventually go to McCain by the smallest of margins if only because McCain is more popular in Obama’s base of Northern Virginia than Obama is in McCains base in the rest of Virginia. Obama needs to win northern Virginia by huge margins if he wants to pull of a win, but “maverick” McCain appeal to moderate voters plus the absolute despise that many conservative Virginians have for Obama (that is probably what makes up 90% of those who see Obama unfavorably) will give Obama a close loss in Virginia.

On the Maine poll we really need to see more consistency before Obama has to worry about losing a electoral vote in Main. Both the districts in Maine are Democratic leaning and the first is about +4 Dem lean and the second +6 leaning, not really a big difference. I could say that maybe if u break it down Obama is winning the first by 2-5 points but we don’t know for sure as Rasmussen didn’t break down the vote by CD. I don’t think McCain will win this district and get a electoral vote if only cause he doesn’t have the money nor the interst to capitalize on it, espeically for just one measly EV. If the Northeast becomes better for McCain, he will go after New Hampshire first and then New Jersey and then maybe even Conneicut before he starts spending money to win in Maine’s 1st.

In Calfornia, I think that Arnold’s dissapproval of the constitutional ban has doomed the amendment from passing because as a Republican he gives the green light for other moderate Republicans to not vote for the amendment, and therefore conservatives have no real leader to champion thier cause to end gay marriage. If the amemdent fails to pass, it would only the second since Arizona, and the first in which people have actually voted to keep Gay Marriage in thier state (in Arizona it is still illegal by just normal law). As Calfornia is a trend setter I hope it spreads to other states, like my home state of Maryland.

By: Taniel

Taniel — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 19:46:45 +0000

Indeed, it is very irritating to have to list the week’s 10th poll from Washington when we have so few polls from Ohio or Pennsylvania (no polls from there for a whole month now!).

By: Joe from NC

Joe from NC — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 19:42:13 +0000

I would really like to see some Ohio polls. I am interested to see if Obama has recovered among Hillary supporters there

By: Tatiana

Tatiana — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 19:34:44 +0000

I’ve said before I think Obama is wasting his money in these red states. If he wins them there’s no way he hasn’t won the election already in other states. It will help Hagan and Begich but Obama should make sure HE wins before thinking of others. I’m saying that even though I’m very excited about beating Stevens.