Comments on: Seeking 9th target, Democrats invest millions in North Carolina as new poll finds Dole ahead

By: Jim W

Jim W — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 11:13:39 +0000

Taniel,

Democrats are strong on the national level in NC, but at the same time the Dems have only elected 2 democrats as senators since 1974, and both only served 1 term (Sanford, Edwards).

By: Joe from NC

Joe from NC — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 02:30:39 +0000

Also, I think Burr should be far more vulnerable than Dole. He is almost as obnoxious about his ideaology as Helms was, but he doesn’t have Helms’s ruthless campaign skills.

By: Joe from NC

Joe from NC — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 02:28:58 +0000

One correction, Bowles lost to Dole by a 10 point margin.

By: Taniel

Taniel — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 00:58:28 +0000

To be fair, North Carolina Democrats have always been strong at the state level and they have controlled the governorship for a while. Also, both of Bowles’s races were in very Republican years (2002 and 2004). The cycle’s GOP-lean was accentuated in the South (remember how the GOP sweeped the Southern open seats in 04). Bowles would probably have beaten Burr in most other years.

By: Guy

Guy — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 00:49:55 +0000

Jim W - you may be right Hagan is more popular than Bowles. Bowles lost by only 3-4% each time he ran so Hagan only has to improve a little in a Democratic year. It is doable.
The NC governors race is also very close - shows NC is becoming more of a swing state, give it to 2012/2016before it really become one like VA.

By: Jim W

Jim W — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 23:36:17 +0000

I think that Eastern NC has problems with Dole, and just like Guy said, Hagen has a chance to beat her. However, I would say it will take a lot of effort. NC is still a culturally conservative state, although less conservative than 10 years ago with the new flux of residents coming from all over the country (and world).

I think Hagen is a better candidate than Erskine Bowles, but she is not as well known. After all, Erskine was closely associated to Bill Clinton, who was not a well-liked figure in NC. Right now I would say that Dole will win with a margin of around 5-7%.

By: Guy

Guy — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 23:10:43 +0000

I think she can be beaten if it is pointed out consistently that she has voted with Bush 98% of the time. She has been very slow and weak on NC specific issues such as the offshore landing strip the Navy wanted and is unpopular in Eastern NC. I think a good Obama showing will certainly help and will ensure the GOP and putting money into NC rather than OH, CO etc. Also Obama advertising in NC will cross the border into VA so he gets 21 for 1.

By: Joe from NC

Joe from NC — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 22:15:04 +0000

I would love to see Dole go down, but I don’t think it will happen. Republicans here feel she is the heir of Jesse Helms, and especially with his death, they will be voting for her in full force. NC Dems don’t like her, but we don’t hate her with the passion we had against Helms. Independents don’t particularly like her, but because she is incumbent, most seem to support her.