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	<title>Comments on: Wednesday polls: Merkley takes his first lead in Oregon&#8217;s Senate race, though Dole and Roberts increase their lead</title>
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	<description>Obsessive political analysis</description>
	<pubDate>Sun, 21 Mar 2010 05:52:06 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: Taniel</title>
		<link>http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/16/wednesday-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-4766</link>
		<dc:creator>Taniel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jul 2008 17:53:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1075#comment-4766</guid>
		<description>Dannity,

If Obama had bee running in Oregon, Massachusetts and California, he would be much much further to the Left than he is now or that I am asking him to be. I am not silly enough to believe that a Democrat in those states has the same priorities or opinions than a Democrat in Ohio or North Carolina, two states that are now on Obama's list and I am thus certainly not arguing that Obama should pretend he is campaigning to be Mayor of San Francisco or go back to all the very liberal positions he took on that 1996 questionnaire.

But there are obviously gradations of progressivism, and I do think there is a huge space between where a Democrat running in California positions himself and where Obama is positioning himself when he is voting for FISA, going back on his March rhetoric on NAFTA or approving of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard being labeled a terrorist group. You are acting as if there is no such space and as if there is a black-and-white choice to be made between San Francisco values and Mountain West moderation. And, as I said, I consider the FISA bill such a capitulation to what Bush has been asking for that I refuse to view this so-called compromise as something any moderate Democrats ought to embrace.

My point is that Obama is running as if we were in 2000 or 2004, ignoring the fact that many independents now identify themselves as Democrats and are looking to vote for a Democrat. The Gore/Kerry-an move to the center is even more foolish than it was four years ago. Yes, Guy, it is important to not alienate these independent voters; but why did they move to the Democratic Party if not out of disgust for the Bush Administration? Was it then sound to embrace the FISA bill, which exemplifies Bush's insistence on conducting a politics of fear and strengthening executive authority? Democrats muddying differences from 2000 to 2006 did not serve the party; it only strengthened the Republican talking-points that Democrats started using, making it more difficult for (1) any Democrat to win on liberal ideas and (1) for Kerry to run an issue-based campaign.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dannity,</p>
<p>If Obama had bee running in Oregon, Massachusetts and California, he would be much much further to the Left than he is now or that I am asking him to be. I am not silly enough to believe that a Democrat in those states has the same priorities or opinions than a Democrat in Ohio or North Carolina, two states that are now on Obama&#8217;s list and I am thus certainly not arguing that Obama should pretend he is campaigning to be Mayor of San Francisco or go back to all the very liberal positions he took on that 1996 questionnaire.</p>
<p>But there are obviously gradations of progressivism, and I do think there is a huge space between where a Democrat running in California positions himself and where Obama is positioning himself when he is voting for FISA, going back on his March rhetoric on NAFTA or approving of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard being labeled a terrorist group. You are acting as if there is no such space and as if there is a black-and-white choice to be made between San Francisco values and Mountain West moderation. And, as I said, I consider the FISA bill such a capitulation to what Bush has been asking for that I refuse to view this so-called compromise as something any moderate Democrats ought to embrace.</p>
<p>My point is that Obama is running as if we were in 2000 or 2004, ignoring the fact that many independents now identify themselves as Democrats and are looking to vote for a Democrat. The Gore/Kerry-an move to the center is even more foolish than it was four years ago. Yes, Guy, it is important to not alienate these independent voters; but why did they move to the Democratic Party if not out of disgust for the Bush Administration? Was it then sound to embrace the FISA bill, which exemplifies Bush&#8217;s insistence on conducting a politics of fear and strengthening executive authority? Democrats muddying differences from 2000 to 2006 did not serve the party; it only strengthened the Republican talking-points that Democrats started using, making it more difficult for (1) any Democrat to win on liberal ideas and (1) for Kerry to run an issue-based campaign.</p>
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		<title>By: dannity</title>
		<link>http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/16/wednesday-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-4765</link>
		<dc:creator>dannity</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jul 2008 16:48:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1075#comment-4765</guid>
		<description>See, the mistake you keep making Taniel is that Oregon is not Ohio, if you get what I’m saying.  The Democrats and independents that will be voting in Virginia and Colorado are not the same type of Democrats and independents that vote in California and Oregon.   Obama can win Oregon with 90% of the popular vote, however if Democrats and independents in Pennsylvania don't think he is practical enough to do what needs to be done to protect the nation, he'll lose the Presidency.  And for his supporters, that's not an option.

Right now, Obama is cutting off potential lines of attack by McCain.  While personally, I hate the FISA “compromise”, the fact is that McCain calling Obama a flip-flopper is a much less potent an attack than calling Obama weak and impractical on national security.  It’s the difference between Obama possibly losing Ohio because there'll be enough that are afraid of “t’rrists” or him winning that state and Virginia and Colorado because people see him as pragmatic enough to make hard choices, while being infinitely better than McCain on domestic issues.

Again, 90% of the Democratic vote in California and Oregon will not put him in the White House, and personally, I’ll trust him to close the domestic spying loopholes (and stop CIA torture) way before I trust McCain.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>See, the mistake you keep making Taniel is that Oregon is not Ohio, if you get what I’m saying.  The Democrats and independents that will be voting in Virginia and Colorado are not the same type of Democrats and independents that vote in California and Oregon.   Obama can win Oregon with 90% of the popular vote, however if Democrats and independents in Pennsylvania don&#8217;t think he is practical enough to do what needs to be done to protect the nation, he&#8217;ll lose the Presidency.  And for his supporters, that&#8217;s not an option.</p>
<p>Right now, Obama is cutting off potential lines of attack by McCain.  While personally, I hate the FISA “compromise”, the fact is that McCain calling Obama a flip-flopper is a much less potent an attack than calling Obama weak and impractical on national security.  It’s the difference between Obama possibly losing Ohio because there&#8217;ll be enough that are afraid of “t’rrists” or him winning that state and Virginia and Colorado because people see him as pragmatic enough to make hard choices, while being infinitely better than McCain on domestic issues.</p>
<p>Again, 90% of the Democratic vote in California and Oregon will not put him in the White House, and personally, I’ll trust him to close the domestic spying loopholes (and stop CIA torture) way before I trust McCain.</p>
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		<title>By: Guy</title>
		<link>http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/16/wednesday-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-4764</link>
		<dc:creator>Guy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Jul 2008 23:02:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1075#comment-4764</guid>
		<description>Taniel - I agree the increased size of the population identifying as Dems is encouraging for Obama but staking out a few centrist positions (or reiterating them) helps ensure that Independents who now classify as Dems do not move back to Independent status and are seduced by "Maverick" McCain.
Also the attack ads Republicans would run against Obama if he was against the death penalty for child rapists and on gun rights (issues in SE Ohio, parts of Virginia etc where he wants to do well).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Taniel - I agree the increased size of the population identifying as Dems is encouraging for Obama but staking out a few centrist positions (or reiterating them) helps ensure that Independents who now classify as Dems do not move back to Independent status and are seduced by &#8220;Maverick&#8221; McCain.<br />
Also the attack ads Republicans would run against Obama if he was against the death penalty for child rapists and on gun rights (issues in SE Ohio, parts of Virginia etc where he wants to do well).</p>
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		<title>By: Guy</title>
		<link>http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/16/wednesday-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-4763</link>
		<dc:creator>Guy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Jul 2008 22:52:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1075#comment-4763</guid>
		<description>Obama is doing better than Kerry with whites - 31%vs 27% and bearing in mind he is black which will turn some poor whites off (not just in the south). So for Obama so far so good.

Also he was right to go for the Independents because they will help solidify his lead in the coming months.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Obama is doing better than Kerry with whites - 31%vs 27% and bearing in mind he is black which will turn some poor whites off (not just in the south). So for Obama so far so good.</p>
<p>Also he was right to go for the Independents because they will help solidify his lead in the coming months.</p>
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		<title>By: Joe from NC</title>
		<link>http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/16/wednesday-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-4762</link>
		<dc:creator>Joe from NC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Jul 2008 22:31:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=1075#comment-4762</guid>
		<description>I think a major reason why Obama is not leading by a larger margin with independents has a lot to do with the fact that a lot of independents who leaned Democratic  became Democrats due to the primary.   That's true for me and for several of my friends and family members.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think a major reason why Obama is not leading by a larger margin with independents has a lot to do with the fact that a lot of independents who leaned Democratic  became Democrats due to the primary.   That&#8217;s true for me and for several of my friends and family members.</p>
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