LA-06 has become one of the most endangered Democratic-held seats. Just two months ago, when Don Cazayoux prevailed in this conservative-leaning seat, it looked like he would head into November a clear favorite since it is very rare for a special election victor to lose in the next general election. But yesterday, state Rep. Michael Jackson said it was “very likely” that he would file as an independent. Today was the filing deadline and we can confirm that Jackson did file and that he will run as an independent.
I already provided some background about how this could impact the race yesterday so I will not go into more analysis here, except to say that the November contest is now sure to be a three-way battle, with two Democrats and a Republican whose name will not be Woody Jenkins. That could be enough for Bill Cassidy to win the seat back for the GOP.
Democrats can take comfort in the latest developments in NY-13, where the situation remains chaotic. Yesterday was the filing deadline and Republicans still had not come up with a candidate to endorse. Their solution was to file a petition on behalf of… Frank Powers, their previous candidate who died last month! Why would they do this? Every filing petition includes a 5-person committee that can appoint a replacement if the candidate drops out or die, and the Staten Island GOP is hoping to gain some more time to find someone, anyone willing to run in NY-13. But here’s the catch: Since Powers died before the petition was filed, it is unclear whether the replacement law will apply in this case and whether Staten Island Republicans will be able to place another candidate on the ballot.
4 other candidates filed for the GOP primary, making it increasingly likely that one of them will get the nod. The most likely candidate is thus Paul Atanasio, a member of the Conservative Party who is being pushed by Brooklyn Republicans (though many of their Staten Island counterparts want nothing to do with him). It will take Democrats to mess up just as badly for Republicans to have a chance at keeping this seat. NY-13 is as close to being a sure pick-up as it can be.
Finally, the DCCC continues to flex its financial muscle. On June 30th, we got word that the committee had reserved air time for the fall in three races with expensive media markets: NY-13, OR-05 and CO-04. By reserving time early the DCCC can get a discounted rate and the money can be refunded if the DCCC chooses to not run these advertisements after all because the races no longer look competitive in a few months. Now, the DCCC has striked again. Including the ad buys mentioned above, it has now reserved air time for 31 districts for up to $35 million! 19 of them are held by Republicans.
Courtesy of Politico, here is the full list (Dem-held seats are in italics). Remember that the amount of money is as much a reflection of a seat mattering more than of how expensive a market is:
- AK AL – Young — $586K
- AZ 01 – Renzi (OPEN) — $1.7M
- AZ 05 – Mitchell — $1.7M
- CO 04 – Musgrave — $667K
- CT 04 — Shays — $697K
- FL 16 – Mahoney — $1.5M
- FL 24 — Feeney — $1M
- IN 09 – Hill — $1.6M
- KS 02 – Boyda — $1.2M
- KY 03 – Yarmuth — $659K
- LA 06 – Cazayoux — $723K
- MI 07 – Walberg — $1.5M
- MI 09 – Knollenberg — $1.1M
- MN 03 – Ramstad (OPEN) — $1.4M
- MO 09 – Hulshof (OPEN) — $941K
- NC 08 – Hayes — $1.6M
- NH 01 – Shea-Porter — $564K
- NJ 07 – Ferguson — $1.8M
- NM 01 – Wilson (OPEN) — $1.3M
- NM 02 – Pearce (OPEN) — $1.2M
- NV 03 – Porter — $916K
- NY 13 – Fossella (OPEN) — $1.3M
- OH 01 – Chabot — $928K
- OH 15 – Pryce (OPEN) — $1.2M
- OH 16 – Regula (OPEN) — $1.3M
- OR 05 – Hooley (OPEN) — $1.2M
- PA 04 – Altmire — $554K
- TX 22 – Lampson — $1.1M
- TX 23 – Rodriguez — $707K
- VA 11 – Davis (OPEN) — $1.3M
- WI 08 – Kagen — $475K
That the DCCC is able to budget such amounts of money is obviously a terrific display of force and a demonstration of their ability to play defense while also going after some long shot Republican seats. The inclusion in this initial wave of seats of open but conservative districts like MO-09 and NM-02 as well as non-open races that are still considered second-tier (FL-24, MI-07 and MI-09) says a lot about their determination to expand the map. While all of these seats have been talked about for a few weeks now, races in marginal districts typically only become competitive in the fall. And consider that the DCCC demonstrating that it will be active in these districts will allow Democratic candidates to fundraise more effectively.
Jackson’s entrance into LA-06 is like a whole barrel of gold for the Republicans. Cazayoux is now the most vulernable House Democatic. Cazayoux did endorse Obama, and while it first seemed that Obama would be a great drag, it looks like Cazayoux will need him to keep the black vote from going to Jackson and letting Republican (forgot his name) get an easy plurarity victory. And also Jerry Weller’s seat, Illinois-11 I believe) will be more competive as the Illnois governor deep unpopularity despite his 2006 reelection is hurting democrats alot, and its possible that Bladsovic and his close ties to Obama is why Rasmussen shows Obama with an underwhelming 11 point edge on McCain.
Fortuantly for Democrats like my self, Cazayoux’s problems are balanced by the GOP on the verge of giving up Vito’s seat in NY-13. It looks like New York is about to become as Democratic on the state and congressional level as it is on the federal level. The GOP’s only chance for a resurangce is if they can convince Bloomberg to rejoin the GOP and then run for Governor. However, Bloomberg probably wont’ go back to the GOP after leaving them last year and he has said that he finished with public life after his mayorship ends. However, if he really wants to be governor he should just do it as an independent. The few polls showing the 2010 gov race show him ahead even as an independent candidate, which shows alot of his bipartisan appeal in New York (much better than the crazy Giulani)
I think Cazayoux will squeak by with a win in November. He’s a pretty good representative for the district–a moderate-conservative. I think Jackson will siphon votes off of both candidates (the Republican candidate appears to be Bill Cassidy).
In Illinois, the Governor (correct spelling is Blagojevich) may have altered the race a bit–I don’t know. Il-11 should be considered “likely Dem” in 2008.
“And also Jerry Weller’s seat, Illinois-11 I believe) will be more competive as the Illnois governor deep unpopularity despite his 2006 reelection is hurting democrats alot, and its possible that Bladsovic and his close ties to Obama is why Rasmussen shows Obama with an underwhelming 11 point edge on McCain.”
Then explain why Dick Durbin is leading by 34%. If BLAGOJEVICH is such a drag for Obama, then why isn’t he a drag for Durbin?
Thanks for the correct spelling for the Illnois Gov. Jim W. I believe the Illinois-11 seat will not get any better than Republicans as a toss-up. However, that raceis now becoming a test to see which candiaate is closer to the very unpopular Blagojevich and the Republican should of course have the edge on that question.
Annoymous on your quesiton on why Blagojevich is not a drag for Durbin: Durbin is fairly low key despite being the number two man in the senate, and he is facing no-name fresh meat Republican in 2008. Obama on the other hand, is much higher profile and therefore his connections to the governor are visibile. Plus he is running against a very strong Republican in the GOP race. However I do think that Rasumessen’s latest poll is serverly underestimating Obama’s support in the state and is a likely a outlier, especialy since few polls look at Illnois. And even if Obama is only this strong, its still superior to how McCain is doing in Arizona, and Illnois is a hell of a lot better for Obama thanks to the expensive media market compared to Arizona.
On Cazayoux, Jim W, I disagree that Michael Jackson will siphon votes from both candidates. Jackson is fairly liberal and in the racialized politics of Lousiana, he isn’t going to get any off the white conservatives who make up the 2/3 of the districts. He will hurt Cazayoux and Cazayoux only as Democrats are the base of the party. However Cazayoux could still win if Democrats portray Jackson as a sore loser who is a gift to the Republicans without seeming racist. Obama would be a great help in this regard. Of course, this could bring up the problem of associating the more liberal Obama with Cazayoux in a district that despises him, a tricky balance to look, one in which Bill Cassidy will exploit. In my opinion, Jackson has turned La-06 from lean dem/tossup to lean Republican. Jackson will likely get his revenge for not winning the Democratic primary.
From what I’ve seen, Cassidy is not a strong candidate. Although Jackson is definitely liberal, having the Independent moniker alone will atract Independents who would have voted for Cassidy. Louisiana’s politics is pretty complex, and I don’t know if the liberal/conservative tags are as important in this state.
Jim W,
More importantly than liberal/conservative, Jackson is likely to take a significant portion of the black vote. That’s the true danger awaiting Cazayoux.
Taniel,
Good point. I do believe that the Democrats in this district will be hesitant to vote for Jackson because he won’t win. However, Jackson may be “attractive” to a republican because he’s listed as an Independent.
Tossup I guess, but I believe Don will win again.